Premier League Stats Review: Hull to deepen gloom for Pardew and Newcastle

Alan Pardew's team have lacked creativity since Yohan Cabaye left
Alan Pardew's team have lacked creativity since Yohan Cabaye left

Andrew Atherley says the stats make depressing reading for Newcastle as they prepare to host Hull on Saturday

"With Pardew seemingly unable to arrest the alarming decline in Newcastle’s form and under the most intense pressure, Hull are the longshot bet of the weekend."

Recommended Bet
Back Hull to beat Newcastle at 3.953/1

The wolves are at Alan Pardew's door but it's the Tigers he has to be concerned about on Saturday when Hull visit beleaguered Newcastle.

With Pardew seemingly unable to arrest the alarming decline in Newcastle's form and under the most intense pressure, Hull are the longshot bet of the weekend at 3.953/1.

The rot set in for Pardew and his team when influential midfielder Yohan Cabaye left for Paris Saint-Germain in the January transfer window. Since then, Newcastle have won only four matches out of 20 in the Premier League and lost 13. Despite a raft of summer signings, nobody has yet stepped forward to fill the hole left by Cabaye and the poor form has continued this season.

The stats indicate that, without the creativity once supplied by Cabaye, it has become almost essential for Newcastle to keep a clean sheet. In their 20 league matches since he left, Pardew's team have lost 13 out of 15 when conceding and three of their four wins have been to nil.

With that in mind, it is notable that Hull have scored in all four Premier League matches so far this season and have lost only once - 2-1 at early high-flyers Aston Villa.

And there is the promise of more goals from new striker Abel Hernandez, who got off the mark (along with fellow deadline-day signing Mohamed Diame) in the 2-2 draw at home to West Ham on Monday night. 

Why has a clean sheet become so important to Newcastle? Well, it is obvious that their fragile confidence is prone to collapse when they concede, as we saw in the 4-0 defeat at Southampton on Saturday when they went behind in the sixth minute and never recovered. Linked to that appears to be a lack of belief that, without Cabaye, they do not have the goal threat to outscore opponents.

Newcastle have failed to score in 11 out of 15 matches where they have conceded since Cabaye left and overall the regularity with which they find the net has diminished significantly. Last season they scored 30 league goals with Cabaye on the pitch but only 13 without him. Since he left, they have needed an average of 129 minutes to score each goal, whereas last season they scored a goal once every 50 minutes with him on the pitch.

With Newcastle 1.51/2 to fail to keep a clean sheet in Saturday's match, there is value in opposing them and one option is Hull on the draw no bet at around 2.56/4, as they have lost only eight out of 26 when scoring since their return to the Premier League. 

But if the visitors score, the stats say Hull have a better win chance than odds of 3.953/1 indicate and it is worth backing them to pile more pressure on Pardew.

* * *

Everton have scored at least two goals in all four Premier League matches this season and there is a good chance the trend will continue at home to Crystal Palace on Sunday. Over 2.5 goals is the bet to have at 1.834/5.

The entertainment factor at Goodison Park has improved under Roberto Martinez and that was clear last season in the fact that over 2.5 goals occurred in nine of their 13 home games (69%) against teams below the elite top seven.

Sunday's match is Everton's first in that category this season and, with their goals profile still among the highest in the Premier League, there is value in backing over 2.5 goals.


Recommended Bets
Back Hull to beat Newcastle at 3.953/1 (1pt)
Back Over 2.5 Goals in Everton v Crystal Palace at 1.834/5 (1pt)

2014/15 P/L

Staked: 7 pts
Returned: 6.57 pts
P/L: -0.43 pts

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