Premier League Stats Review: Hull have the goal power to keep Burnley waiting for elusive win

Steve Bruce's Hull side are highly efficient against fellow strugglers
Steve Bruce's Hull side are highly efficient against fellow strugglers

Stats expert Andrew Atherley picks out Hull as one of the best bets when they visit bottom club Burnley on Saturday...

"Hull pick up most of their points against struggling teams. Last season, in the mini-league of the bottom seven who finished with fewer than 40 points, Steve Bruce's team finished top with a W6 D4 L2 record."

Back Hull on Draw No Bet @ 2.1411/10


When are Burnley going to land their first Premier League win of the season? This weekend against Hull? Don't bank on it.

Lengthy winless runs are the stuff of legend in Sunday league football, but at professional level they just don't happen. Even the poorest teams in the other English leagues have won at least once this season and there is an inevitability of a Burnley win sooner or later, but even so the Clarets are a team to oppose until they show enough to be taken more seriously.

The worst team in Premier League history, Derby in the 2007-08 season, managed only one win in 38 games and in the past decade they are one of nine teams that had six or fewer wins in the season (that is, winning no more than 16% of their matches).

Even if they do not turn out as bad as Derby, Burnley look likely to be in the 'six wins or fewer' category by the end of the season. If we start from now and say they will win exactly six of their remaining 28 games, that is still only a 21% win percentage.

At that low level, Burnley have to be opposed every time there is a good-odds opportunity to do so. And there is with Hull available at around 2.0811/10 on Draw No Bet or off 0 on the Asian handicap, which amounts to the same thing. In both cases, stakes are refunded in the event of a draw.

There is also a reasonable chance of victory for Hull, who pick up most of their points against struggling teams. Last season, in the mini-league of the bottom seven who finished with fewer than 40 points (a group that included Hull), Steve Bruce's team finished top with a W6 D4 L2 record.

This season Hull are also top of the mini-league of the bottom seven with a W2 D0 L1 record. Notably, since the start of last season the Tigers have scored in 13 of their 15 games against bottom-seven teams and that gives them a good chance against Burnley.

Sean Dyche's team have taken four points so far and three were in goalless draws. When they have conceded, Burnley's record is W0 D1 L6 and that gives them problems against Hull, who have scored in eight of their 10 Premier League games this season and been shut out only by Southampton and Liverpool.

Hull score in most of their games against lower-level opposition and have a good record when they do so. Since the start of last season, Bruce's team have been shut out by only four bottom-half teams in 23 matches and their record in that category when scoring is W10 D6 L3.

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One mark of a good team is a superior record against bottom-half teams. Last season's top seven were the only sides that lost three or fewer games against bottom-half teams and all had a win rate of at least 65% in that category.

It is instructive therefore that Southampton and West Ham are among the five teams yet to lose to a bottom-half team this season - along with Chelsea, Arsenal and, more surprisingly, West Brom. That indicates the elevated positions of Southampton and West Ham have a solid foundation and it is interesting that both are at home to bottom-half teams on Saturday.

West Ham appeal most at 1.784/5 to beat Aston Villa, whose difficult early fixture list has caught up with them after a run of six straight defeats.

The Hammers have won their only home match so far against a bottom-half team (2-0 against QPR) and, in fact, have won four out of five in that category in the calendar year 2014 - the only defeat coming late last season against a resurgent Crystal Palace under Tony Pulis.

Scoring sensation Diafra Sakho is reportedly fit to return and at the odds West Ham rate a good-value bet.


Recommended Bets
Back Hull on Draw No Bet @ 2.1411/10 (1pt)
Back West Ham to beat Aston Villa at 1.784/5 (1pt)


2014/15 P/L

Staked: 25 pts
Returned: 28.2 pts
P/L: +3.2 pts

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