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Premier League Relegation: A runner-by-runner guide to the battle to survive

Editor
05 January 2018

Can David Wagner keep Huddersfield up?

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While Man City have the title wrapped up, the battle to stay in the Premier League is set to be a fascinating betting heat with as many as 11 teams still at risk of going down. Adam Baylis, Joe Dyer, Mike Norman and Dan Thomas assess the chances of each...

"Wagner's men, who are on a run of no wins in four, will need to start picking up points pretty quickly as they end the season with games against Chelsea, Everton, Man City and Arsenal. I fear it could be a tough second half of the campaign."

Swansea - 1.282/7
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Since the appointment of Carlos Carvalhal there has been enough evidence in Swansea's last two performances to suggest that they can string a run of results together to give them a fighting chance of beating the drop. They travel to homesick Newcastle next, win there and the Swans will be within touching distance of the teams above them. Swansea also have the 'been there and done it' t-shirt, having avoided relegation last season from an uninspiring position following a managerial change. That experience could be vital.
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To my eyes Swansea easily look like the worst team in the division and only a Sunderland-like miracle set of results might be able to save them. The Welsh outfit rank worst for virtually every attacking stat there is, including, most crucially, shots on target and goals scored. They've lost more games than any club in the division, scored fewer goals than anyone, and if they fail to beat Newcastle in their next league game, then the three games that follow are against Arsenal, Liverpool, and away to Leicester. One fears that Swansea might have an impossible mountain to climb much sooner rather than later. MN

West Brom - 1.9110/11

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The Baggies are still only five points from safety and have home games against Brighton, Southampton and Huddersfield to look forward to in their next six fixtures. They've looked an improved outfit under Alan Pardew - for all that their paucity in front of goal continues to be their Achilles heel - and they still have the 10th best defence in the league. Ultimately you can't help but feel that they're a striker and a number 10 - or fit again Nacer Chadli / James Morrison - away from getting their heads back above water.

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While Pardiola has offered up a side with more attacking intent he's struggled to polish the rusty tools that Tony Pulis left behind. Winning just four points from eight games since taking charge. Large sums spent in the summer on Oliver Burke, Jay Rodriguez and Grzegorz Krychowiak have served only to highlight the ongoing ineptitude at boardroom level since Dan Ashworth's departure. It'll take a stroke of genius to conjure up a solution to their goal scoring woes in January and away trips to a much-improved Everton side and Pep's 'Invincibles' before the end of the month don't serve to inspire confidence. Fans that rejoiced at ex-chairman Jeremy Peace's departure could well find their chickens coming home to roost in the all-too-familiar confines of The Championship next season. AB

Recommended Bet
Back West Brom to get relegated at 1.9110/11

Stoke - 3.1511/5

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After falling to defeat on seven occasions in their last ten, the Potters are finally considering letting go of Mark Hughes. They've largely held their own against teams in and around them with their 3-1 victory against West Brom last month showing that they're well-capable of putting their best foot forward when they can keep things tight at the back. Xherdan Shaqiri appears to be finally fulfilling his promise since arriving in 2015 and young Tom Edwards has impressed since earning a first team place this season. They play Huddersfield, Watford, Bournemouth and Brighton before the end of February so there are points available for whoever the board deem to be - to quote Mark Hughes - "the best man for the job".

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A total of 47 goals conceded in 22 league fixtures, an average of 2.14 per game with just two clean sheets to their name - what would Tony Pulis say? In addition, while they've netted on 23 occasions, the 36 year-old Peter Crouch has contributed three of those and the pairing of Eric Maxim Choupo-Moting and Mame Biram Diouf won't strike fear into too many Premier League defences; the less said about Saido Berahino the better. And so when combining the worst Premier League defence with a strike force in need of a major overhaul, the result is one that doesn't exactly add up. The Potteries powers-that-be have quite the task on their hands if they're to retain their Premier League status. AB

Huddersfield - 4.03/1

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The Terriers were odds-on favourites to go straight back down ahead of the start of the season, but they signalled their intent with two wins and a draw in their opening three games and they have put in plenty of positive performances in the first half of the season, most notably a superb home win over Manchester United. David Wagner's men have been on a couple of losing runs - as you'd expect from a newly promoted team - but have shown good spirit to bounce back, with key wins over Brighton and Watford in recent weeks, helping them to the giddy heights of 11th.

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While there have been a few highs along the way, the nature of a number of Huddersfield defeats have exposed the lack of quality in the squad. They have been beaten 5-0 by Arsenal, 4-0 by Bournemouth and Tottenham and 3-0 by Arsenal and Leicester, meaning their goal difference is the third worst in the league at -17. Wagner's men, who are on a run of no wins in four, will need to start picking up points pretty quickly as they end the season with games against Chelsea, Everton, Man City and Arsenal. I fear it could be a tough second half of the campaign. DT

Recommended Bet
Back Huddersfield to get relegated at 4.03/1

Bournemouth - 4.57/2

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After a disastrous calendar month without a win, the festive period saw Eddie Howe's men gain five points from three fixtures after a predictable trouncing at the hands of Man City to edge one point clear of the drop zone. Striker Callum Wilson has scored in two of those games as the team have regained their attacking mojo, putting three past West Ham and scoring twice against Everton and Brighton. These are encouraging signs of spirit in the camp in what looks like a long and fierce relegation fight.

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The south coast side may have rediscovered their attacking ability but they remain poor at the back, without a clean sheet in nine fixtures, and just four in 22 Premier League games this season. Their next three games are all ultra-competitive meetings against London teams with Arsenal paying a visit followed by a visit to fellow relegation battlers, West Ham, and a midweek trip to Stamford Bridge. Bournemouth may well end the month in the bottom three and could represent a decent short-term trade off the back of that run. JD

Recommended Bet
Back Bournemouth at 4.57/2 lay to regain stake at 2.47/5

Newcastle - 5.49/2

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Back-to-back away wins have moved Newcastle up to 13th in the table, and although that's just two points above the drop zone it will take a brave man to say that they won't survive based on those two performances; the Magpies registered no fewer than 25 shots at goal, including 10 on target, in those two victories which is extremely encouraging. And of the 11 teams likely to be in the fight for survival, only Brighton have conceded fewer goals than Rafa Benitez's men. Benitez insists that he needs to strengthen his squad in the January Transfer Window, and if allowed to do so then Newcastle will be in a strong position to pick up the points required to remain a Premier League outfit.

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Newcastle's home form is of massive concern. Benitez's men have taken just a single point at St James' Park from the last 18 available, and they failed to score in five of those six games. Their next home game is against rock-bottom Swansea, failure to win that and the pressure really will be on as Newcastle then travel to Manchester City before having to play the likes of Liverpool, Manchester United, and Tottenham in the next couple of months. And with nothing concrete yet agreed about the potential sale of Newcastle, there has to be a huge doubt as to whether Benitez will be given the money he needs to strengthen his squad in this window. If he doesn't then the Magpies will be in the relegation mix right to the death one feels. MN

Southampton - 6.86/1

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Getting Virgil van Dijk off the books for an eye watering £75m will hopefully bring a number of positives to St Mary's. Most obviously it's the opportunity for Mauricio Pellegrino to add some real quality in key positions - centre-half and centre-forward spring to mind. But Saints chairman Ralph Krueger this week revealed that the protracted transfer saga had left the club under a 'cloud' and threw them off balance, so it may also be a weight off the collective shoulders that will allow the team to focus on the second half of the season. Recent results have not been good but Saints should arguably have beaten Man Utd at Old Trafford and some fresh faces this month could make all the difference.

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Even though we're now over the halfway stage of the season, Pellegrino seems nowhere near to knowing his best XI, continually tinkering with the team. Saints have already played 12 of their 19 home games - all against bottom half teams - and have claimed just 13 points. They have sold their best defender while a strikeforce of Austin (injury prone), Gabbiadini (badly out of form) and Long (one goal since February) does not convince whatsoever. With some tough fixtures incoming, Southampton could be a back-to-lay at 6.86/1. The board might be looking longingly over at a certain Leicester manager who is doing a very good job... DT

West Ham - 8.415/2

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The appointment of David Moyes, though widely mocked at the time, has seemingly revitalised the club with West Ham picking up notable results against Chelsea, Arsenal and Spurs. That is admirable spirit that suggests the east London outfit can beat the drop. The next five fixtures could define their season with consecutive games against relegation rivals, starting at Huddersfield on January 13 before bringing Bournemouth and Crystal Palace to the London Stadium, and rounded out with Brighton and Watford away. A reproduction of their current form across those games would be enough to build a handy cushion in their battle to beat the drop.

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Despite that good form the Hammers are not out of the woods yet, sitting just two points clear of the bottom three. They look light in attack with Andy Carroll seemingly unable to string a run of games together without suffering an injury and Javier Hernandez struggling to make an impact when he starts. The Hammers are a muscular, functional unit, without an attacking star to propel them clear of opponents and Moyes will hope to address that in this transfer window. JD

Crystal Palace - 8.615/2

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After not picking up a solitary point or indeed scoring a goal in their first seven games, Palace were matched as short as 1.51/2 to get relegated, but Roy Hodgson has overseen a remarkable recovery since then and a run of one defeat from 11 has seen the Eagles drift all the way out to 8.415/2. The south Londoners have become a well organised unit as you'd expect under Hodgson, but they're also showing real quality going forward with Wilfried Zaha in scintillating form. If they can get another forward in to back up Christian Benteke this month, a challenge for the top half could be on.

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The only potential cloud on the horizon at the moment for Palace is injuries. Scott Dann and Jason Puncheon have been ruled out for the season meaning they're light on numbers in key areas, while there is no real back-up for Christian Benteke. Should talisman Zaha miss a few games, the Eagles could struggle. There is also an outside chance that a big transfer bid for him could tempt the Palace board but the flying winger has said he wants to stay so a move looks unlikely this month. DT

Brighton - 15.5

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Chris Hughton has done an excellent job to steer one of the pre-season relegation favourites to a position of mid-table mediocrity - we'll gloss over the three points that separates 12th from 18th. Their back four rank 8th best in the league and have been a large part of their success, recording eight clean sheets from 22 outings - we'll gloss over the three own goals they've conceded. Glen Murray has proven himself well able of still competing at the top level, netting on six occasions and providing the Seagulls with a genuine attacking threat - at the grand age of 36. If they can add a few pieces in around the likes of Pascal Groß, Dale Stephens and the aforementioned Murray in January then another year in the top-flight beckons.

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While flying high in 12th, there's just three points that separates them from the drop, a fiery FA Cup clash with rivals Crystal Palace has the potential to steer the ship off course. They then face a West Brom side desperate for points, host Chelsea and travel along the coast for a faux-derby with Southampton. You have to wonder how long they can rely on both Glen Murray and Pascal Groß for goals, if either were to pick up a significant injury then they could go into free-fall; which in a few games time could make them an interesting Back to Lay opportunity. AB

Watford - 15.5

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For the opening months of the season Watford were the Premier League's good news story, beginning the campaign with a dramatic 3-3 draw against Liverpool and then picking off weak opposition on the road through the early fixtures. That good form saw them end the eighth gameweek in fourth after beating Arsenal 2-1 at Vicarage Road, and they were still in the top 10 despite suffering a three-game losing streak thereafter. Brazilian signing Richarlison has been a bright spark, scoring five goals and assisting eight.

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Watford are on a soul-destroying run of form having picked up just four points from eight December fixtures in the top-flight. Common consensus is that manager Marco Silva, recruited in the summer, had his head turned by rumours linking him to Everton and the team is no longer playing for him. If true - and it does seem plausible - that is worrying for fans of the team and for Silva, who is fifth favourite in the Next Premier League Manager to Leave market. The team currently stand five points clear of the relegation zone but a continuation of recent results will see them sink ever closer to the bottom of the table. January is a key month with the Hornets facing fellow strugglers Southampton and Stoke. JD