Wednesday Premier League Tipsheet: Baggies to see off lowly Swansea

Mike Norman
13 December 2016

Tony Pulis' West Brom have been excellent at the Hawthorns in recent months

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The Premier League continues with a bumper eight-game fixture list on Wednesday night, and here with recommended bets in five of those matches is our man Mike Norman...

"Pulis' men have an excellent recent record against teams outside of the top four, especially at the Hawthorns where they have recorded comfortable wins over Burnley, Watford, and West Ham, and secured a draw with Tottenham."

Back West Brom @ 2.111/10 to beat Swansea

Sunderland 11.010/1 v Chelsea 1.364/11; The Draw 5.79/2

During Chelsea's opening-day win over West Ham way back in August I saw a side that was completely different to the one that under-performed last season, and one that was much more like the title-winning team from the season prior.

It was a bold shout to say after just one game, a narrow victory over the Hammers, that, "on that evidence I think Antonio Conte's men will be title contenders this season", and for a few weeks after I was thinking I'd have been best not saying it.

But the Blues have come good in spectacular fashion since they switched to a back three, winning nine consecutive league games to go three points clear at the top of the table.

What's more, with the games Conte's men have coming up, Chelsea have an excellent chance of opening up a significant gap going into the New Year. I know the festive season is a difficult time to maintain consistency but the Blues could hardly of wished for a better December set of fixtures than the one that reads, Sunderland (A), Crystal Palace (A), Bournemouth (H), and Stoke (H).

The first of those games is against the Black Cats on Wednesday night and it's impossible to see Conte's men not picking up another three points.

After winning three of their previous four Sunderland were presented with an excellent opportunity to move out of the relegation zone on Saturday. Instead they fluffed their lines big time and ended the weekend rock bottom thanks to a 3-0 thrashing at Swansea.

I don't see how David Moyes can bring about the improvement necessary to stop Chelsea in this match and I'm backing a comfortable away win.

Recommended Bet
Back Chelsea -1 to Win @ 2.0421/20

West Ham 1.684/6 v Burnley 5.95/1; The Draw 4.216/5

This is one of my more riskier wagers of the night purely because I'm not taking West Ham's home form into consideration when putting up the selection. But to be able to back something that has happened six times out of seven already this season at odds of 2.89/5 shouldn't be missed.

I'm talking of course about Burnley losing away from home by at least two clear goals.

I'm slightly wary of the bet because I've been saying for a few weeks now that either Burnley's home form will dip, or their away form will improve. Following Saturday's 3-2 home win over Bournemouth the former certainly isn't happening yet, but is Wednesday the night Sean Dyche's men get it right on the road?

They may well do, but I'm happy to wager they don't, and here's why.

The Clarets have played seven Premier League games away from home this season and they've taken just a single point from those matches. The aggregate scoreline is 17-1! In six of those games Dyche's men lost by at least two goals, and the only time they avoided defeat was when they drew 0-0 at Old Trafford in a game that they quite easily could have lost by four or five.

Admittedly West Ham haven't been great at home but I think they're a better team than the league table suggests, but as I've alluded to already this wager is purely based on Burnley's away record and very little else.

Recommended Bet
Back West Ham -1 to Win @ 2.89/5

Man City 1.271/4 v Watford 13.5; The Draw 6.611/2

I'm sure Man City will be forming part of many midweek accumulators on Wednesday night but of all the short-priced teams the Citizens are the one I don't want to be with.

They are favourites for a reason of course; they have a better starting XI than Watford, they have a stronger squad, they have a successful manager, they're one of the favourites for the title, and they're on home soil.

It goes without saying then - as the Match Odds strongly suggest - that Man City are by far the most likely winners of this match, and that they should, and probably will, win with ease.

But how can you back a team that has kept just one clean sheet in 17 matches at odds of just 1.271/4? Not only that, but we're talking about a team that hasn't won a league game at the Etihad Stadium for three months.

Pep Guardiola's men have won just three of their last eight in the league, they've just lost back-to-back games, conceding seven goals in the process, and they will still be without top scorer Sergio Aguero on Wednesday. You won't go skint laying Man City at 1.282/7 should your bet fail, and that wager simply has to be the call on current form.

Watford are up to seventh in the table after their weekend win over Everton so they deserve massive respect, but just like my preview of the West Ham v Burnley game this recommended wager is mostly based on the form of one side. And I just can't have Man City at 1.271/4 to win.

Recommended Bet
Lay Man City to Win @ 1.282/7

Tottenham 1.261/4 v Hull 16.015/1; The Draw 6.05/1

As far as strong favourites go in midweek I'm of the opinion that Tottenham are the most solid option and they ought to be good enough to win with plenty to spare against Hull.

I said prior to Spurs' game at home to Swansea that although Mauricio Pochettino's men hadn't been winning a lot of games they had still been performing with credit in a busy schedule and that they are easily one of the top four of five teams in the Premier League.

Thankfully Spurs' confirmed my confidence by thrashing Swansea in one of the most one-sided games you'll ever witness, and they followed that up with a convincing 3-1 home win (at Wembley) over CSKA Moscow in the Champions League.

Pochettino's men now face a Hull side that hasn't scored an away league goal for two months, a team that sit second bottom in the table, and one that has an appalling recent away record.

Mike Phelan's men have lost their last five away matches in the Premier League, scored just two goals in that time and conceded an alarming 16. They barely got out of their own half against an average Middlesbrough side last time, they lost at Bournemouth by five, at Liverpool by four, and at rock bottom Sunderland by three.

If Tottenham get an early goal in this match then this could be a rout and I'm happy to wager that the home side win by at least a three-goal margin.

Recommended Bet
Back Tottenham -2 t Win @ 2.89/5

West Brom 2.186/5 v Swansea 3.7511/4; The Draw 3.55

There's still time of course but backing West Brom to be relegated doesn't appear to be one of my better pre-season wagers this term. The Baggies are doing terrific, especially against the teams in the bottom half of the table, and I'm confident that will still be the case after this game.

West Brom are eighth in the table after taking 10 points from a possible 12 prior to Sunday's narrow defeat at Chelsea, and they are the only club outside of the top six in the table to have a positive goal difference.

It's no secret how Tony Pulis sets out his side to play. Albion are an extremely well organised unit, especially defensively, but they are very efficient at the other end against the 'lesser' sides. You have to go back to the beginning of September to find the last time West Brom lost to a side outside of the top four in the table.

Pulis' men have an excellent recent record against teams outside of the top four, especially at the Hawthorns where they have recorded comfortable wins over Burnley, Watford, and West Ham, and secured a draw with Tottenham. They scored 12 goals in those four matches alone which is a fantastic tally for a team perceived to be dull and low-scoring.

I got my fingers burned when opposing Swansea at the weekend but I'm happy to oppose them again given that their two recent wins were on home soil and against Sunderland (now 20th in the table) and a Crystal Palace side that were losing for the sixth league game in succession.

Away from the Liberty Stadium Bob Bradley's men have been very disappointing, conceding 12 goals in their last four away trips and taking just one point form a possible 12. Given Albion's strong home form against lower-half sides I make the Baggies my best bet of the night.

Recommended Bet
Back West Brom to Win @ 2.111/10 (best bet)

***

You can follow me on Twitter - @MikkyMo73

For individual match previews of every single Premier League game visit our dedicated Premier League section here on Betting.Betfair.

Premier League 2016/17 Season P/L

Staked: 64 pts
Returned: 67.58 pts
P/L: +3.58 pts

*based on 1pt each bet, 2pts best bet

- 2014/15 P/L = +35.30 pts from 215 pts staked
- 2015/16 P/L = +14.99 pts from 234 pts staked

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