Middlesbrough are as good as relegated - and results involving the other relegation candidates could effectively seal their fate on Saturday afternoon - but I do expect them to put up a decent showing at Bournemouth, knowing that quite simply they have to win.
It was pretty much a similar scenario in Boro's last away game when I put up Over 2.5 Goals at around [2.3] as a strong recommendation. That game - away to Hull - saw five goals scored before half time! I'm not saying we'll get that many before the interval, or even in 90 minutes, this time, but I think a price of even money about witnessing at least three goals is definitely worth a wager.
Steve Agnew' men have to attack and go for goals, it really is that simple. And I know they're pretty woeful in both those departments, but by playing that style of football it diminishes their main strength, which is defending and cancelling teams out.
And if Agnew feels he can get at any team then surely it's a Bournemouth side that have the third worst defensive record this season, and whose 33 league games have averaged 3.27 goals per match, the second highest of all 20 clubs.
Eddie Howe's men conceded six at Everton recently in a nine-goal game, last month on home soil they beat West Ham 3-2, and all of their last three matches have witnessed at least four goals. And of course, earlier in the season at the Vitality Stadium they were involved in 6-1, 4-3, and 3-3 games.
So we know that the Cherries are often involved in entertaining games, and given the way I expect - and hope - Middlesbrough to approach this encounter then I'm fairly confident we'll witness at least another three goals on Saturday afternoon.
Back Over 2.5 Goals @ [2.0] (best bet)
It looks extremely likely that the final relegation place will be taken by either Hull, currently 17th in the table on 30 points, or Swansea, 18th and two points behind the Tigers.
What's definitely in Hull's favour however is their superb home form. The Tigers haven't lost a single game at the KCOM Stadium - in any competition - since losing to Manchester City in December. Marco Silva's men have since played nine games on home soil, winning seven of them and drawing the other two.
What is also in the Tigers' favour is Silva's incredible record as a manager in front of his own fans. The 39-year-old in now unbeaten for three years, a period stretching 40 games, on home soil during stints with Sporting Lisbon, Olympiacos, and now Hull.
As well as crucial wins over Bournemouth, Middlesbrough, and Swansea, Silva has also overseen home victories over Manchester United (EFL Cup) and Liverpool, and although an odds-on price of [1.95] about a relegation-threatened club doesn't instantly scream value, another home win definitely looks on the cards against Watford.
The Hornets have won three of their last four to secure their Premier League safety for another year, but all those victories were hard fought and came at home to clubs - Sunderland, West Brom, and Swansea - in no sort of form.
Away from home Watford have lost three on the spin without scoring a single goal, and considering some of their players might now be looking towards their summer holiday I don't see any reason to oppose another home win for Hull on Saturday afternoon.
Back Hull to Win @ [1.95]
Swansea have hit a bit of a brick wall in recent weeks but still have an excellent chance of avoiding the drop given they trail Hull by just two points.
After a bright start with the Welsh outfit Paul Clement has seen his men take just a single point from the last 18 available, that coming in a poor goalless draw against goal-shy Middlesbrough, but he surely has to take heart from the fact that Swansea haven't lost touch with the club immediately above them.
The Swans had been in decent form at the Liberty Stadium prior to that draw with Boro, and they performed very well against Tottenham in their last home game, leading 1-0 until the 88th minute before agonisingly conceding three goals at the death, so I believe they're still a solid proposition in front of their own fans.
Clement's men face Stoke on home soil on Saturday, and like relegation rivals Hull they face a club safe from the drop and effectively with nothing to play for. How much that comes into it remains to be seen, but the Potters' form on their travels recently has been so dire that Swansea simply have to be fancied to take all three points.
Mark Hughes' men have taken just a single point from the last 15 available away from home, that coming courtesy of a goalless draw meaning that Stoke didn't score a single goal in those five matches.
The Potters actually lost four on the spin prior to seeing off Hull in gritty fashion last weekend, but I think they'll do well to record another victory over a relegation-threatened club on Saturday. In fact, if Clement's men can get back to the form they were showing six weeks ago then I can see them grabbing a crucial win.
Back Swansea to Win @ [2.26]
You can follow me on Twitter - @MikkyMo73
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Premier League 2016/17 Season P/L
Staked: 139 pts
Returned: 158.02 pts
P/L: +19.02 pts
*based on 1pt each bet, 2pts best bet
- 2014/15 P/L = +35.30 pts from 215 pts staked
- 2015/16 P/L = +14.99 pts from 234 pts staked
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