Burnley 3.7511/4 v Southampton 2.265/4; The Draw 3.412/5
I mention regularly in my previews the word value, or 'perceived value' as I call it because that's exactly what it is; one person's perception of what is a value price. I perceive Burnley to be value at 3.7511/4 to win this match, and therefore they have to be the selection.
I'm not overly confident that the Clarets will bag yet another home win on Saturday, but what I am confident about is that if these two sides met 11 times under the exact same circumstances then Burnley would come out on top at least three times.
And that makes a price of 3.7511/4 about a home win a value one.
The reason I mention 11 above - a rather strange sample you may have thought - is because not only is it the perfect number to use to explain why Burnley are value at their current odds, it's also the number of games they've played at Turf Moor in the league this season.
Yet remarkably Sean Dyche's men have won seven of those games including victories over top-nine clubs Liverpool (2nd), Everton (7th), and Bournemouth (9th). They've also defeated Palace and Watford who were both comfortably in mid-table at the time of playing.
Southampton are also a mid-table side - currently sitting 10th to be precise - but they travel to Lancashire on the back of three consecutive league defeats, conceding nine goals in the process. The Saints also failed to beat Norwich in the FA Cup last weekend, and although they defeated Liverpool in the EFL Cup in midweek the Reds were very much out of sorts that night and I'm happy to dismiss that result as a sign that Claude Puel's men have bounced back to form.
I do fancy Burnley to win this, I just don't think you can ever be too confident about a 3.7511/4 shot in football - the outsider of the three Match Odds options may I add - and I do have this worry that the Clarets' home form will desert them sooner rather than later.
Mind you I've been saying that for the last six weeks and regularly been proved wrong, so let's stick with Dyche's men at an attractive price.
Back Burnley to Win @ 3.7511/4
Swansea 7.26/1 v Arsenal 1.538/15; The Draw 4.84/1
Swansea did win with new boss Paul Clement in attendance - a 2-1 victory over fellow strugglers Crystal Palace - but it was 'business as usual' when the former Derby boss officially took charge for the first time as the Swans were dumped out of the FA Cap by Hull last weekend.
Clement expressed his surprise at the quiet nature of the crowd, stating that it was different to what he's been used to recently. He's arrived at Swansea, and travelled to relegation candidates Hull, having been assistant manager at Bayern Munich. What was he expecting?
Clement's only previous managerial job of course was at Derby, where he flopped and was sacked after winning just 14 of the 33 games in which he was in charge of the then Championship title favourites. I have serious doubts about his ability to guide Swansea to Premier League safety.
Immediately before the league win over Palace Swansea had lost back-to-back games at the Liberty Stadium by an aggregate score of 1-7, losing by three clear goals on both occasions, to West Ham and Bournemouth respectively.
Arsenal are a far better team than those two outfits so it's easy to expect another heavy defeat for the Swans.
The Gunners were the big losers over the Christmas period, picking up just seven points from the 15 available, but prior to that they were in excellent form and I expect them to get back to that sort of level on Saturday afternoon.
Arsene Wenger's men are the third highest goalscorers in the Premier League while Swansea have conceded more than any other club in the division so it's not difficult to envisage the Gunners not just winning at the Liberty Stadium, but winning with plenty of room to spare.
Back Arsenal -1 to Win @ 2.56/4 (best bet)
West Ham 2.447/5 v Crystal Palace 3.259/4; The Draw 3.45
Saturday's six 3pm kick-offs hardly set the pulses racing; 11 of the bottom 12 clubs in the Premier League are in action and there are some very tough-looking fixtures.
This game became slightly more interesting with the news that Dimitri Payet no longer wants to play for the club. The Frenchman now looks set for period in limbo with boss Slaven Bilic standing firm and declaring he's going nowhere, but until his attitude changes Payet won't be considered for the first team.
I'd like to say the situation is one of disbelief, but unfortunately it isn't. Players generally hold all the aces these days and more often than not will get what they want.
West Ham without Payet are a considerably weaker team, that's for certain, and at the London Stadium they look slightly vulnerable against Crystal Palace. The Hammers have already lost six times at their new home in all competitions and they've just conceded seven goals in back-to-back home defeats to the two Manchester clubs.
Facing Palace looks a much easier assignment as the Eagles concede a lot of goals away from home. In fact since the beginning of September Palace's nine Premier League away games have witnessed a total of 38 goals - 17 for, 21 against - at an average of just over four per game.
All bar one of those nine away matches resulted in both teams getting on the scoresheet and that's the bet I fancy here.
Sam Allardyce is sure to tighten the Eagles defence up in time but until we see evidence of it I'm prepared to wager that they'll concede at least one at the London Stadium. And given the magnitude of this game, and the fact that West Ham have been pretty poor on home soil this term, I expect Palace to get on the scoresheet themselves.
Back Both Teams to Score @ 1.855/6
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