Saturday Premier League 3pm Kick-Offs: Three bets on a low-key Saturday

Mike is taking on Southapton with Sean Dyche's Burnley on Saturday
Mike is taking on Southapton with Sean Dyche's Burnley on Saturday

With many of the big sides in action on what promises to be a Super Sunday, Saturday's 3pm kick-offs have failed to inspire Mike Norman. But there are still bets to be had, and here our man recommends a trio of wagers...

"But the big negative is the fact that from those last 12 home games Southampton failed to find the back of the net in nine of them!"

Lay (oppose) Southampton to Win @ 1.75/7 v Burnley

Newcastle 2.0621/20 v Bournemouth 4.216/5; The Draw 3.613/5

(Significant Opta Stat: Bournemouth have made their worst start to a Premier League campaign after 10 games, accumulating just seven points.)

With no disrespect to any of the eight clubs in action on Saturday afternoon it's hardly the most mouthwatering set of fixtures to look forward to, and I have to admit that I found it really difficult to be confident about any potential wagers.

So my advice is to keep stakes low, or don't even have a bet, if you're feeling as non-enthusiastic as me; sometimes it's pointless forcing a bet when you don't fancy anything.

Having said that, I do think Newcastle will get the better of Bournemouth, so that will be my main bet on Saturday, while laying Southampton and wagering on goals at the Liberty Stadium just look worth chancing from an odds perspective.

We successfully opposed Newcastle at Burnley on Monday night but as suspected before the game, there was very little to split the two sides and it could easily have gone either way. But like most promoted clubs, I believe Newcastle can go a long way to securing their Premier League status by being a very difficult team to beat on home soil.

Rafa Benitez's men have already won three times at St James' Park, while a 1-1 draw with Liverpool means they've accumulated a very respectable 10 points from a possible 15 in front of their own fans. True, the victories came against lowly West Ham, Stoke, and Crystal Palace, but go and take a look at where Bournemouth are in the table, and you'll see why the Magpies are pretty strong favourites for the victory.

The Cherries have started the season very disappointingly, taking just seven points from a possible 30, and away from home they'd lost their first four away games in the league prior to beating Stoke in a scrappy game a fortnight ago.

Of course, that first away win of the season might spark Eddie Howe's men into a bit of form, but going to St James' Park will be no easy task given that the hosts have a very good defensive record this season, conceding just two goals in their last four home games.

Recommended Bets
Back Newcastle to Win @ 2.0621/20


Southampton 1.695/7 v Burnley 6.611/2; The Draw 3.7511/4

(Significant Opta Stat: Burnley have already won more away games (2) and more away points (8) this season than they did in the whole of 2016-17 (one win, seven points).)

Looking at the Match Odds ahead of this game you'd be forgiven for thinking that Southampton are above Burnley in the table, and that they have a very good recent home record. Neither is true of course, so at the odds we simply have to take the Saints on.

Admittedly, on paper, Southampton are in many people's opinion the better team, and they have home advantage on Saturday. But there are two problems with what I've just said; one is that football isn't played on paper, and the other is that Mauricio Pellegrino's men haven't exactly been in good form at St Mary's recently.

In fact, on home soil, the Saints have won just two of their last 12, those victories coming by just a single goal margin against West Ham (currently 16th in the table) and West Brom (15th). But the big negative is the fact that from those last 12 home games Southampton failed to find the back of the net in nine of them!

That's not a stat that fills you with confidence when you're about to face one of the most organised teams in the Premier League.

And when you consider where Burnley are in the table, and look at the results they've had away from home this season, then it's absolutely impossible to put your faith in Southampton at 1.695/7 to win this game.

Sean Dyche's men currently sit seventh in the table, they have the joint fourth best defensive record this season with only Man City, Man United, and Tottenham having conceded fewer goals, and away from home they've already defeated Chelsea and Everton, while they also avoided defeat at both Tottenham and Liverpool.

The Clarets are just an extremely well-organised side, and it's easy to see them going to St Mary's and frustrating the Saints. I'm not overly confident that Dyche's men can go there and score a few goals that they might need to take all three points, but I'm even less confident about Southampton landing the odds-on price.

A lay of the hosts is the call.

Recommended Bet
Lay (oppose) Southampton to Win @ 1.75/7
(best bet)


Swansea 2.3611/8 v Brighton 3.711/4; The Draw 3.211/5

(Significant Opta Stat: Since the start of last season, Swansea have conceded more Premier League home goals than any other side in the division.)

These are tough times for Swansea. After taking just four points from the last 21 available Paul Clement's men sit just above the relegation zone, level on points with Everton who are in 18th place.

The big worry however is Swansea's home form. Three of their four victories in all competitions this term have come away from home, while at the Liberty Stadium they have lost five of their six games played, conceding an average of 2.2 goals per game in those five defeats.

It's a stat that should have Brighton and their in-form attackers, not least Glenn Murray and Pascal Gross, licking their lips. The Seagulls have been disappointing themselves on the road this term, drawing just one, and losing three, of their opening four away games. But last time at West Ham it all clicked and Chris Hughton's men ran out easy 3-0 winners. They should be full of confidence going to Swansea.

And all that means that a chance is definitely worth taking that we'll witness at least three goals. Swansea will feel that they have to win, Brighton will believe they can take the points, so hopefully an exciting game will be played out.

As I've already mentioned, Swansea concede plenty of goals in front of their own fans but they're also capable of getting on the scoresheet themselves. That last four games at the Liberty Stadium have witnessed an average of exactly 2.5 goals per match, and with Brighton arriving on the back of scoring three in their last away game, odds of 2.568/5 about Over 2.5 Goals seem very generous.

Recommended Bet
Back Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.568/5


***


You can follow me on Twitter - @MikkyMo73


Premier League 2017/18 Season P/L

Staked: 41 pts
Returned: 40.55 pts
P/L: -0.45 pts

*based on 1pt each bet, 2pts best bet

- 2016/17 P/L = +42.63 pts from 160 pts staked (26.64% ROI)
- 2015/16 P/L = +14.99 pts from 234 pts staked (6.4% ROI)
- 2014/15 P/L = +35.30 pts from 215 pts staked (16.42% ROI)

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