Saturday Premier League 3pm Kick-Offs: Burnley over-priced again

Mike fancies Sean Dyche's Burnley to record another away win on Saturday
Mike fancies Sean Dyche's Burnley to record another away win on Saturday

The domestic football continues to come thick and fast over the festive period and here with his three recommended bets from Saturday's 3pm action in the Premier League is our man Mike Norman...

"If these two sides met, three times, under exactly the same conditions as they will meet on Saturday, could you see Burnley winning at least once? If the answer is yes, then you have to back Burnley, it's as simple as that."

Back Burnley @ 3.55/2 to beat Huddersfield

Huddersfield 2.466/4 v Burnley 3.55/2; The Draw 3.211/5

(Significant Opta Stat: Only the current top four have won more Premier League away points than Burnley this season.)

A couple of weeks ago I was amazed that Burnley could be backed at around 3.39/4 to win away at Brighton. True, they could manage only a 0-0 draw that day but the Clarets actually had a poor recent record against the Seagulls, so you can probably sense my amazement that Burnley, who have a very good record against Huddersfield, can be backed at 3.55/2 to win.

As I always say, when something looks too good to be true then it probably is, but I maintain that from a value perspective then Sean Dyche's men have to be the call.

If these two sides met, three times, under exactly the same conditions as they will meet on Saturday, could you see Burnley winning at least once? If the answer is yes, then you have to back Burnley, it's as simple as that.

And the reason I'd say yes to the above question is because Burnley have a superb record away from home this season and there's absolutely no reason to believe it is going to end soon. Dyche's men have accumulated more points away from home this term than every Premier League club bar Manchester City, Manchester United, Chelsea, and Liverpool, and they actually remained unbeaten in away games to the latter three.

The Clarets have lost just twice away from home all season, and one of those defeats was to unbeatable Man City, while the other was a narrow reversal at then in-form Leicester. And up until two games ago Burnley had the joint-best defensive record in the division, along with Man City, and even now they have the fourth best.

Huddersfield will be a tough nut to crack, I know that and the odds tell you that. But I maintain that Burnley, on all known form, would win at least one of three clashes under the exact same circumstances as they'll play on Saturday.

It's not as if the Terriers are in stunning form either. David Wagner's men have won just two of their last nine, and just one of their last four at the John Smith's Stadium, and in recent years, Burnley have won three, and drew one, of their last four meetings.

Recommended Bets
Back Burnley to Win @ 3.55/2 (best bet)

Liverpool 1.321/3 v Leicester 11.010/1; The Draw 6.411/2

(Significant Opta Stat: The last three Premier League meetings between these two have seen 14 goals scored (4.7 per match).)

Liverpool have become the must-watch team in the Premier League, more so than Manchester City simply because teams feel like they can get at them, and that usually results in a wide open affair with the Reds' 'Fab Four' coming out on top more times than not.

Man City are exciting, and quite brilliant at times, of course they are, but it's usually 90 minutes of attack against defence when they are in action, whereas with Liverpool it's a lot more end-to-end.

But when Jurgen Klopp's men hit you on the counter attack, or they are in full flow, then they are absolutely breathtaking to watch. And against Leicester City, another team that likes to attack at pace and hit teams on the counter, then we could be in for a cracking game.

I'm not surprised at all to see Over 2.5 Goals trading at just 1.444/9, but we obviously can't put that up as the recommended bet here so instead I'm happy to take a chance on Over 4.5 Goals at 3.613/5; that's an outcome that would have paid out a remarkable 12 times already this term in games featuring Liverpool.

The Reds' last three league games have witnessed a total of 15 goals, so when we consider that the last five league games involving the Foxes have witnessed exactly 20 goals, then it's not difficult to envisage another high-scoring affair on Saturday afternoon.

And of course, there's the Opta stat above that tells us there's usually goals when these two sides meet; the last three Premier League clashes have finished 2-3, 3-1, and 4-1, while there's also been a 2-2 and 1-3 between Liverpool and Leicester since 2014.

Recommended Bet
Back Over 4.5 Goals @ 3.613/5

Watford 1.748/11 v Swansea 6.05/1; The Draw 3.814/5

(Significant Opta Stat: No significant stat.)

You'll notice that there isn't a significant stat in the usual place ahead of this preview, and the reason for that is because there isn't really one that I can include to support the recommended bet.

And the reason for that is because I fancy Over 2.5 Goals. Unfortunately so do quite a few other people it seems as the price has been steadily decreasing from the early 2.35/4 that was available.

It's not much of a selling point when you fancy something just on a hunch, but I really do get the feeling that Swansea over the next few weeks will be doing a pub crawl from one last chance saloon to another until they string a few wins together.

The Swans are already five points adrift of safety which probably means they are going to have to win at least five or six of their remaining 18 games to have any chance of survival. The appointment of Carlos Carvalhal - sacked from Championship side Sheffield Wednesday earlier this week - doesn't really inspire, and the club can only hope that they get an immediate 'new manager bounce'.

Carvalhal will surely target a game against Watford as one that his side can get something from, and I sense we might see a different approach from Swansea over the coming weeks, a more attack-minded one hopefully

It may work in their favour, but to do so they'll need to start scoring more regularly, but it may work against them, and if that's the case, and they defend in the shambolic way that they did at Liverpool earlier this week, then Watford could score at least three on their own.

The Hornets haven't exactly been defensively solid themselves of late either, having gone seven games without keeping a clean sheet, and in their last four home games they've conceded an alarming 10 goals, but scored six of their own. That's an average of exactly four goals per game, so I think a chance has to be taken that we'll witness at least three goals on Saturday.

Recommended Bet
Back Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.1411/10


You can follow me on Twitter - @MikkyMo73

Premier League 2017/18 Season P/L

Staked: 76 pts
Returned: 90.47 pts
P/L: +14.47 pts

*based on 1pt each bet, 2pts best bet

- 2016/17 P/L = +42.63 pts from 160 pts staked (26.64% ROI)
- 2015/16 P/L = +14.99 pts from 234 pts staked (6.4% ROI)
- 2014/15 P/L = +35.30 pts from 215 pts staked (16.42% ROI)

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