Saturday Premier League 3pm Kick-Offs: Back Goals at Turf Moor

Burnley manager Sean Dyche - Premier League
Sean Dyche has been applauding plenty of good performances recently from his Burnley team
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With just four Premier League 3pm kick-offs to choose from Mike Norman is confident of a home win in South London, plus goals being scored at juicy prices in the clashes at Turf Moor and the Liberty Stadium...

"We know that both sides will be going for the win to claim that 'Best of the Rest' tag, we know both sides are in confident mood, and we know that Burnley have conceded nine goals alone in their last six home games while Leicester's recent away matches have witnessed a plethora of goals."

Back Over 2.5 Goals @ [2.46] in Burnley v Leicester

Back goals in 'Best of the Rest' battle

Burnley [2.74] v Leicester [3.0]; The Draw [3.3]

(Significant Opta Stat: Leicester have both scored and conceded in a league high 21 matches this season.)

After a terrific season to date this is effectively Burnley's cup final. Beat Leicester and they will almost certainly be playing in the Europa League next season. And you just know that Sean Dyche, his team, and the club as a whole will embrace playing European football for the first time in over 50 years.

It's a very tough game to call however. The Clarets are in terrific form after winning four league games on the spin, while the Foxes travel to Turf Moor on the back of two consecutive away wins.

I'm inclined to leave the Match Odds market alone, and instead take a flyer on goals being scored because it seems that market has been priced up on reputation - Burnley being strong defensively and keeping games low-scoring that is - rather than recent stats.

And the recent stats tell us that on home soil Burnley have conceded at least once in each of their last six Premier League games, while Leicester are one of the most entertaining teams in the division, scoring and conceding in now fewer than 21 league games this term, a divisional high.

And just look at the Foxes' recent away resuls. Their last five matches have resulted in scorelines of 1-5, 2-1, 5-1, 1-4, and 0-2. That's 22 goals scored in those five games, at an average of close to 4.5 goals per match. And yet here we can back Over 2.5 Goals at a very generous [2.46].

We know that both sides will be going for the win to claim that 'Best of the Rest' tag, we know both sides are in confident mood, and we know that Burnley have conceded nine goals alone in their last six home games while Leicester's recent away matches have witnessed a plethora of goals.

Eagles can down poor-travelling Seagulls

Crystal Palace [1.98] v Brighton [4.7]; The Draw [3.5]

(Significant Opta Stat: Brighton have scored fewer away Premier League goals this season (7) than any other side, failing to score in seven of their last nine on the road.

Crystal Palace somehow find themselves back in the thick of a relegation scrap, though you just sense that of the teams towards the bottom of the table they are the ones who can produce moments of excellence - most likely through Wilfried Zaha - that will enable them to beat the drop.

After losing seven games on the spin to start the season Roy Hodgson worked wonders to get the Eagles soaring up the table, but some poor form of late - just one win in 10 league outings - has seen them fall to 17th in the table, just three points above the relegation zone.

But if you look at Palace's home form alone it's pretty obvious they are a decent side and a tough nut to crack. They went six games unbeaten at Selhurst Park earlier in the season before a narrow 2-3 loss to Arsenal. They then drew with Man City on home soil, went another few games unbeaten, and their last three home defeats were all by just a single-goal margin, to Spurs, Manchester United, and Liverpool no less.

So it's perhaps a welcome relief that Saturday's visitors to South London are Brighton, the Premier League side that has scored the fewest away goals this season.

Chris Hughton's men have scored just seven times on their travels this term, and they've failed to score in seven of their last nine away league matches - the only two games in which they did score on the road in that spell were against Stoke and Southampton, two clubs currently in the relegation zone.

I know it's not an exact science trying to compare defeats at home against low-scoring away form, but Palace look the better outfit to me, and with home advantage in a perfectly-winnable game, a price of even money that they'll collect all three points makes some appeal.

Goals look over-priced at the Liberty

Swansea [2.6] v Everton [3.15]; The Draw [3.3]

(Significant Opta Stat: Everton are looking to win back-to-back Premier League away games for the first time since September 2016)

With only two more 3pm kick-offs to make a selection in - and nothing appeals in the Huddersfield v Watford game - I'm left with relegation-threatened Swansea against disappointing Everton. And to be perfectly honest it's not a game that appeals much from a betting perspect either. But as soon as I see Over 2.5 Goals priced at [2.44] in a game with a lot riding on it, then my ears prick up.

As I've mentioned a lot of times before, I never like backing Under 2.5 Goals at a short price when everything is in your favour, never mind when there's a few matters not in your favour. An individual error, a wonder goal, an early sending off, anything like that can scupper your reasoning for a short-priced 'unders' bet, so I always back 'overs' when the odds are generous.

Okay, Swansea don't exactly get involved in many high-scoring games, but at the Liberty Stadium under Carlos Carvalhal they've scored plenty themselves to make the odds of offer about witnessing at least three goals a bit silly.

The Swans lost twice to Tottenham on home soil - and even then five goals were scored in total - but take out those Spurs defeats and Carvalhal's men have scored 21 goals in seven home matches, and 25 goals were scored in total, meaning an average of just over 3.5 goals scored per match. They beat the likes of Arsenal and Liverpool in that terrific run of home form as well as putting four past West Ham.

So is it Everton away from home that is making Under 2.5 Goals priced at just [1.65]? Not a bit of it. Seven of the Toffees' last eight away matches have witnessed at least three goals, so once again, we're not exactly talking here about a home team that rarely scores against a side that rarely scores away from home. Quite the opposite in fact.

There's always a chance that both sides might cancel each other out, that's the perils of football betting, but on the evidence of recent results then the only bet I want to have in this match is a punt on Over 2.5 Goals at [2.44].


You can follow me on Twitter - @MikkyMo73

Premier League 2017/18 Season P/L

Staked: 120 pts
Returned: 137.99 pts
P/L: +17.99 pts

*based on 1pt each bet, 2pts best bet

- 2016/17 P/L = +42.63 pts from 160 pts staked (26.64% ROI)
- 2015/16 P/L = +14.99 pts from 234 pts staked (6.4% ROI)
- 2014/15 P/L = +35.30 pts from 215 pts staked (16.42% ROI)

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