Saturday Premier League 3pm Tips: Seagulls to get the better of Magpies

Brighton boss Chris Hughton
Chris Hughton's Brighton have to be backed to beat winless Newcastle says Mike

The International break could well have freshened a few teams up but Mike Norman is happy to oppose three sides that haven't been in the greatest form this season as he brings us his Saturday 3pm tipsheet...

"Away from home Chris Hughton's men have drawn with Southampton and lost narrowly to the top two in the table - Liverpool (1-0) and Man City (2-0) - in their three most recent road trips, and now facing a team that has a 100% losing record at St James' Park this season I have to make the Seagulls the best bet of the day."

Back Brighton @ 3.7511/4 to beat Newcastle

Cherries home form too tasty for Saints

Bournemouth 2.111/10 v Southampton 4.03/1; The Draw 3.65

As regular readers will know, my favourite way of playing Match Odds markets is to simply oppose out of form teams, and more often than not I'll just back the opposition to win rather than get the win and draw on my side.

It will come as no surprise then that the teams I'm opposing on Saturday are Southampton, Cardiff and Newcastle who between them have won just one of a combined 24 league outings, drawing six and losing 17. The good news is that we oppose this trio of clubs this weekend by backing three teams to win all at odds-against prices.

Bournemouth can be backed at 2.111/10 to beat Southampton, a side that has lost three Premier League games on the spin without scoring a single goal.

The Saints have had some tough tasks already this term - two of their three most recent defeats were at the hands of Liverpool and Chelsea for example - but as I often say, losing games is an extremely hard habit to break. And when faced with some easier opponents in the league - the likes of Burnley, Leicester, Crystal Palace, Brighton and Wolves - Mark Hughes' men failed to win four of those games, only winning away against a Palace team yet to score a single goal at Selhurst Park this season.

So against a Bournemouth team that is extremely strong on home soil, and one that can be backed at 2.111/10 to win, I have to put up Eddie Howe's men as the selection.

The Cherries have played six games at Dean Court this season, winning five and drawing one of those games while scoring 16 goals in the process. They also go into this weekend's encounter on the back of three straight wins in all competitions, thrashed Watford 4-0 away from home just before the International break, and they currently sit inside the top six of the table.

These are good times for Bournemouth and I fully expect them to beat a Southampton team that appears to be in decline.

Cottagers to win battle of the newly-promoted clubs

Cardiff 2.546/4 v Fulham 3.02/1; The Draw 3.55

Another side that I'm more than happy to oppose by backing a team at 2/1 to beat them is Cardiff, who host fellow Premier League new boys Fulham on Saturday afternoon.

True, this game pits together a Cardiff side playing on home soil against a club just three places above them in the table who are also on a poor run of form, but I'm far more interested in opposing the Bluebirds on account on their own form than I am Fulham.

Neil Warnock's men are rock bottom of the Premier League table after collecting just two points from the 24 available to them so far, and while that isn't the greatest surprise in the world for a club who trade as short as 1.321/3 to be relegated this term, their form at the Cardiff City Stadium is extremely worrying.

Warnock's men have played five times in front of their owns fans this season, drawing their first one 0-0 with Newcastle before losing four on the spin, conceding an alarming 13 goals in the process.

Fulham haven't exactly set the world alight this season admittedly, but it's worth remembering that they spent the best part of £100m during the summer transfer window and the gut feeling is that Slavisa Jokanovic's men will improve as the season goes on. Youngster Ryan Sessegnon certainly hasn't found his feet at this higher level, but once he does I expect the Cottagers to improve and climb the table.

Fulham won this fixture by scoring four goals in Cardiff last season and I believe they are a very decent price to repeat that success.

Winless Magpies have to be opposed

Newcastle 2.3211/8 v Brighton 3.7511/4; The Draw 3.412/5

The last time Newcastle played at home we made their opponents, Leicester, the best bet of the day and they duly obliged, running out comfortable 0-2 winners.

That reversal means that the Magpies have lost all four of their home games this term, and while they faced some top teams in that sequence I'll repeat again that breaking a winless run is extremely difficult at this level.

And just like I said a fortnight ago, when Rafa Benitez's men were faced with much easier tasks - on paper at least - they failed to beat both Cardiff and Crystal Palace and they even lost to Championship side Nottingham Forest in the EFL Cup.

Overall Newcastle's record this season reads, P9, W0, D2, L7 and they've conceded at least two goals in all seven of their defeats, throwing away a 2-0 lead at Old Trafford before the International break when losing 3-2 to Jose Mourinho's out-of-form Manchester United.

So just like when they faced Leicester a few weeks ago I find it impossible to make a case for backing Newcastle as strong favourites to win this game. They'll win sooner rather than later, and if it's on Saturday afternoon then so be it, but at the prices I can't let Brighton go un-backed at 3.7511/4.

And I'll use the same example as I always do. If Newcastle hosted Brighton three times under Saturday's exact same circumstances can you envisage the Seagulls winning at least one of those games? If you can then you should back them here because 3.7511/4 would represent what is known in the betting industry as a 'value' price, even though I'm not a fan of that terminology.

The case for Brighton winning isn't an obvious one admittedly, but they have won twice in the Premier League this season and that's two more wins than Newcastle have achieved.

Away from home Chris Hughton's men have drawn with Southampton and lost narrowly to the top two in the table - Liverpool (1-0) and Man City (2-0) - in their three most recent road trips, and now facing a team that has a 100% losing record at St James' Park this season I have to make the Seagulls the best bet of the day.

***

You can follow me on Twitter - @MikkyMo73

Mike's 2018/19 Season P/L:

Staked: 28 pts
Returned: 32.74 pts
P/L: +4.74 pts

- 2017/18 P/L = +20.09 pts from 128 pts staked (15.69% ROI)
- 2016/17 P/L = +42.63 pts from 160 pts staked (26.64% ROI)
- 2015/16 P/L = +14.99 pts from 234 pts staked (6.4% ROI)
- 2014/15 P/L = +35.30 pts from 215 pts staked (16.42% ROI)

Get a Free £/€20 Exchange Bet

  • Join Now - Open account using promo code VAL225
  • Bet - Place a £/€20 Bet on the Exchange
  • Earn We'll Refund You £/€20 If the Bet Loses

T&Cs apply.

Read past articles