Saturday Premier League 3pm Tips: Foxes to thrive at the Palace

Mike Norman
13 December 2018

Claude Puel will be hoping to see his Leicester side win at Crystal Palace

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A couple of nice winners last week for Mike Norman sees him edge back into profit for the season, and our man is hoping to bolster the betting bank further with three selections from Saturday's 3pm kick-offs...

"...the win over Burnley was the first home victory of the season for Roy Hodgson's men. They'd lost four, and drew two, of their previous six league games at Selhurst Park, failing to score a single goal in five of those home matches."

Back Leicester @ 3.02/1 to beat Crystal Palace

Eagles still worth opposing on home soil

Crystal Palace 2.747/4 v Leicester 3.02/1; The Draw 3.39/4

Crystal Palace were strong odds-on favourites that last time they played at Selhurst Park, and they duly landed the odds, defeating Burnley 2-0 thanks arguably to their best performance of the season.

However, that victory remains Palace's only win in their last 11 matches and they've since shipped six goals in two defeats to Brighton and West Ham, so once again I'm happy to take them on as favourites when they host Leicester on Saturday afternoon.

True, those recent back-to-back defeats - 3-1 at Brighton and 3-2 at West Ham - were away from home but it's worth pointing out that the win over Burnley was the first home victory of the season for Roy Hodgson's men. They'd lost four, and drew two, of their previous six league games at Selhurst Park, failing to score a single goal in five of those home matches.

And although the Eagles were very impressive against Burnley we have to put that victory into perspective also. The Clarets have struggled badly this season and went to Selhurst Park on the back of taking just two points from the previous 21 available.

The Foxes are bang in the middle of the fight for sixth place in the table, a scrap that currently sees eight clubs separated by just five points. Manchester United are the hot favourites to finish in the top six this season but Leicester were my pre-season fancies to finish in those positions and I'm happy to stick with them.

Their recent form has been a bit in and out admittedly but last week's defeat to Tottenham was their first reversal in eight games in all competitions and I think they deserve huge credit for coming through what has been an extremely difficult period for the club in the way that they have.

On the field however they need to get back to winning games regularly if they are to climb the table, but they're unbeaten in three on the road and it's Palace's home form that is the main reason behind my confidence in Leicester claiming all three points.

Low-scoring affair between two low-scoring sides

Huddersfield 2.6613/8 v Newcastle 3.211/5; The Draw 3.211/5

Even before we've reached Christmas the relegation six-pointers will be coming thick and fast, starting with Newcastle's trip to the John Smith's Stadium on Saturday afternoon. A win for the home side will put them level with the Magpies on 13 points but a win for the away team could move them six points clear of the drop zone.

I know it's a cliche, but I think this is a game neither manager will want to lose. That's perhaps stating the obvious, but what we mean when we say that is that both managers might stay, or go, more defensively the longer the game stays level rather than change things from an attacking point of view to try and pinch the points.

And this match does pit together the lowest-scoring team in the Premier League - Huddersfield (10 goals scored) - against one of the joint second lowest-scoring teams in Newcastle (13). Don't expect the highlights of this match to be the first game shown on Match of the Day is what I'm trying to say.

The Terriers went five successive home games without scoring a single goal and they've still only managed to find the net three times in eight outings in front of their own fans, while the Magpies have already played out three goalless draws on the road this term.

It's difficult to pick a winner in all honesty, I think Newcastle are marginally the better side but they have a lot of injuries to contend with, so I'm happy just to back the obvious here and go for a tight, low-scoring game. Both matches between these two finished 1-0 last season (a win for each team) so a wager on Under 1.5 Goals at 2.89/5 is the call.

Cherries worth picking at Molineux

Wolves 2.021/1 v Bournemouth 4.1; The Draw 3.65

It will be no surprise at all if I've missed the boat in opposing Wolves as they appear now to be back in form having defeated Chelsea at home and Newcastle away in the space of four day last week.

But I've always felt that they are priced-up slightly shorter than they perhaps should be, and although I didn't expect them to lost at home to Huddersfield I genuinely did fancy taking them on in away games to Brighton and Cardiff.

Much has been made about Wolves' form against the big clubs in the division but actually they did won only one of those games - against Chelsea - so perhaps it's not as magnificent as some are making out. It's also worth noting that the other five teams they've won against this season are West Ham, Burnley, Southampton, Crystal Palace and Newcastle. Four of those clubs are currently 15th in the table or lower.

So perhaps we should be saying that Nuno Espirito Santo's men are very efficient at beating the teams lower down in the division, but against the clubs in mid-table and just below their record isn't so great having already failed to beat Everton (7th) and lost to Leicester (9th), Watford (12th), Brighton (13th) and Cardiff (14th) this season.

Bournemouth are the visitors to Molineux on Saturday and I believe they are the bet at 4.1. It' not often that I back a team that has lost five of its last six games but despite that poor run of form the Cherries are still above Wolves in the table.

And in a strange sort of way I think last week's thrashing by Liverpool will have really switched the focus on for Eddie Howe's men. Howe himself wasn't too disappointed with his team's performance against the Reds but insisted that the 0-4 scoreline is what can happen in this division if player don't concentrate 100%. I imagine the Cherries' players will have been working extremely hard on the training pitch this week.

It's easy to look at Wolves' last home performance - a 2-1 win over Chelsea - and say that they thoroughly deserve to be strong favourites against Bournemouth. But when we consider their not-so-great form against mid-table sides, and the fact that they lost three home games on the spin prior to the victory over the Blues, then I find it quite easy to wager on an away win.

***

You can follow me on Twitter - @MikkyMo73

Mike's 2018/19 Season P/L:

Staked: 56 pts
Returned: 58.33 pts
P/L: +2.33 pts

- 2017/18 P/L = +20.09 pts from 128 pts staked (15.69% ROI)
- 2016/17 P/L = +42.63 pts from 160 pts staked (26.64% ROI)
- 2015/16 P/L = +14.99 pts from 234 pts staked (6.4% ROI)
- 2014/15 P/L = +35.30 pts from 215 pts staked (16.42% ROI)

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Recommended bets

Back Leicester @ 3.02/1 to beat Crystal Palace (best bet)
Back Under 1.5 Goals @ 2.89/5 in Huddersfield v Newcastle
Back Bournemouth @ 4.1 to beat Wolves