Tuesday Premier League Tipsheet: Saints to put cup loss behind them with win in Wales

Mike Norman
30 January 2017

Southampton boss Claude Puel can immediately get back to winning ways

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Mike Norman has been in decent form with his Premier League predictions of late, and here our man provides his three best bets from Tuesday night's non-televised action...

"And in Southampton, Swansea not only face a team that is relentless at churning out clean sheets this season, they're facing a team that has defeated them on home soil for the last three seasons, all without conceding."

Back Southampton @ 2.427/5 to beat Swansea

Arsenal 1.251/4 v Watford 16.015/1; The Draw 7.26/1

On current form this should be a straightforward victory for Arsenal, and if truth be told I'm finding it very difficult to make a case for the outcome not being exactly that.

After damaging back-to-back defeats in December the Gunners have taken 13 of the last 15 points available to them, while they've made smooth progress in the FA Cup thanks to a 5-0 demolition of a below-strength Southampton at the weekend.

Arsenal weren't exactly at full strength either for Saturday's victory at St Mary's, so it bodes well that they were so impressive and yet can bring back Alexis Sanchez from the start for the visit of struggling Watford.

I mention Sanchez for a reason, and that's because he has a tremendous record against the Hornets having scored three times and assisted a further two goals in his three league appearances against them.

Watford are in extremely poor form having won just one of their last 10 league games, and on Sunday they were dumped out of the FA Cup thanks to a pretty lifeless display against League One outfit Millwall. Admittedly Walter Mazzarri made plenty of changes ahead of that cup tie but the defeat will have done nothing for confidence in the Hornets' camp.

Arsenal have failed to concede a goal in open play in their last seven league games at the Emirates Stadium, and their recent head-to-head record against Watford is impressive; Arsene Wenger's men have won the last seven meetings scoring an impressive 19 goals in the process.

It's impossible to look beyond a home victory here and I see no reason why Arsenal won't cover the -1 handicap and win with room to spare.

Recommended Bet
Back Arsenal -1 to Win @ 1.758/11

Sunderland 10.09/1 v Tottenham 1.42/5; The Draw 5.39/2

Tottenham made life extremely hard for themselves at home to League Two side Wycombe on Saturday, having to come from 0-2 and 2-3 down before snatching a dramatic 4-3 win.

Like many managers over FA Cup weekend Mauricio Pochettino made plenty of changes to his starting XI meaning that, barring the odd one or two, the side that starts against Sunderland - including fit again Harry Kane - will be the strongest one possible, relatively fresh from not having to play for 10 days.

Sunderland weren't even in cup action so we know they are well rested also, so at least we're not having to second guess managers and predict what line-ups they'll field ahead of this Premier League clash.

The reality is, a full strength Tottenham side (from the players available of course) should be far too good for a Sunderland team that has endured a torrid start to 2017.

The Black Cats were dumped out of the cup by Burnley, and they've taken just a single point from the last 15 available, conceding an alarming 14 goals in those last five league games.

What's more, David Moyes' men have a horrible recent record against Spurs, drawing just three, losing 10, and winning none of their last 13 meetings. On Tuesday night Sunderland face a Tottenham side that has the biggest positive difference in the Premier League in terms of shots on target (137) versus shots on target conceded (64). The Black Cats have the biggest negative difference - 77 shots on target, 141 shots on target conceded.

So with Pochettino's men in such good form - eight wins and a draw from their last nine games - I see no reason why they won't win by at least two clear goals at the Stadium of Light in midweek.

Recommended Bet
Back Tottenham -1 to Win @ 2.166/5

Swansea 3.3512/5 v Southampton 2.427/5; The Draw 3.412/5

It's the easiest decision in the world to forgive Southampton's dreadful display at home to Arsenal in the FA Cup on Saturday. The Saints were thrashed 0-5, which is of course a worry, but it was effectively a reserve team and I'm confident the reversal won't have damaged morale in the camp.

And at the moment Southampton are back in a good place. Claude Puel's men thrashed Leicester the last time they were in league action, and they've just reached the EFL Cup final thanks to two very effective displays against Liverpool.

I thought the Saints were excellent on the counter attack in both of those semi-final matches with Nathan Redmond producing superb displays. He looks to be a player who is getting better with each game, and he could be key in this match if Southampton can hit Swansea on the break with pace.

The Swans produced the upset of the season when they defeated Liverpool 3-2 at Anfield 10 days ago, and while that was a magnificent result we've seen throughout January how badly out of form the Reds are (which admittedly could also be used as an argument for those wanting to oppose the Saints).

What I'm trying to say is that I'd like to see more evidence of Swansea being a more difficult proposition under new boss Paul Clement than that victory at Anfield.

The facts are Swansea have lost their last three at the Liberty Stadium, conceding an incredible 11 goals in the process. I'm not sure Clement can shore up that defence in such a short time. And in Southampton, they not only face a side that is relentless at churning out clean sheets this season, they're facing a team that has defeated them on home soil for the last three seasons, all without conceding.

Recommended Bet
Back Southampton to Win @ 2.427/5 (best bet)