Sorted by finishing position last season
Manchester City - No change
- Last season - 1st
- 22/23 Forecast position - 1st
The reigning champions Manchester City have arguably strengthened their starting XI this summer by bringing in Erling Haaland, which should stand them in very good stead for their title defence.
There are question marks over the quality in depth of their squad following outgoings, but if they continue to play at the same level they have under Pep Guardiola - particularly defensively - then they will take some stopping.
City have been the best defensive team in the league in every season under Guardiola.
Liverpool - No change
- Last season - 2nd
- 22/23 Forecast position - 2nd
The bridesmaids in two of the last four seasons, Liverpool's relentlessness has pushed City all the way, with the pair separating themselves from the pack over the last four campaigns.
Last season was the biggest gap yet from the top two to the rest, and the early signs are that the Reds will again be City's closest challengers, but their slightly less-reliable defence could be the difference.
Chelsea - No change
- Last season - 3rd
- 22/23 Forecast position - 3rd
The Blues had a turbulent end to the 21/22 campaign on and off the field, but the signs are there that they have their house in order as we approach the new season.
Their transfers appear solid, and they still have Thomas Tuchel in the dugout, with a world class manager going a long way to securing a top four finish.
If Chelsea hit the same levels as last season (+0.82 xGD per game), they will have no issues in qualifying for the Champions League, and while third is predicted by the Infogol model, a surging Spurs could push them all the way for that position.
Tottenham - No change
- Last season - 4th
- 22/23 Forecast position - 4th
Antonio Conte completely transformed Tottenham after his appointment, turning them from a team with a relegation worth process under Nuno Espirito Santo (-0.55 xGD per game) to the third best team in the league (+0.91 xGD per game).
They ended the campaign in the top four, with their xG process at it's highest point since the 17/18 season under Mauricio Pochettino, and Conte did all of that with a squad that wasn't overly eye-catching.
January recruits helped, and the Italian has been backed again this summer, bringing in players to both strengthen his XI and his squad, making Spurs a dangerous looking proposition that can secure another top four finish.
Arsenal - Lower
- Last season - 5th
- 22/23 Forecast position - 6th
Arsenal have had a successful summer to back up another improved campaign from Mikel Arteta's side, with their xG process at it's highest level since Arsene Wenger left the club.
The issue they have is that their rate of improvement isn't quick enough to make a jump to the levels Tottenham and Chelsea finished with last term, meaning they are likely to miss out.
Infogol has the Gunners finishing a place lower than last term, though fifth and sixth is expected to be tight between them and Manchester United.
Manchester United - Higher
- Last season - 6th
- 22/23 Forecast position - 5th
It's all change at Manchester United, with Erik ten Hag taking over. It should make them more entertaining to watch, and their underlying numbers can only improve on a disastrous 21/22 season.
There is a large potential upside to United this season, with ten Hag's system and style likely to see them improve regardless of recruits, but the unknown means its likely to be fifth or sixth rather than fourth or above.
West Ham - Lower
- Last season - 7th
- 22/23 Forecast position - 9th
West Ham's consistency over the last few years deserves credit, though they were fortunate to finish seventh last term based on underlying performances.
Their process understandably took a dip due to European commitments, and if that trend continues this season (provided they qualify for the Europa Conference League via play-offs) then the Hammers could fall a few spots.
Leicester - Lower
- Last season - 8th
- 22/23 Forecast position - 14th
Leicester were the biggest overperformers in the league last season, finishing eighth in the actual table but third from bottom of Infogol's xG table.
Injuries played a part, but their defensive process was disastrous, and only fortune meant they finished so high in the table.
Their goal difference was +3 and their xGD was -20.7, just highlighting the fact.
A lack of incomings and a few potential big outgoings could leave the Foxes vulnerable, and Infogol has them finishing much lower than last season - in 14th.
Brighton - Higher
- Last season - 9th
- 22/23 Forecast position - 8th
Graham Potter's progressive Seagulls looks set for another strong campaign, with the club that is impecibly run both on and off the pitch only thriving in the current climate.
Losing key players isn't a big deal for Brighton, with a conveyor belt of players to keep the bandwagon rolling, and their underlying numbers over the last few seasons suggest they are in the top half to stay.
Wolves - Lower
- Last season - 10th
- 22/23 Forecast position - 13th
Wolves finished last season with a major whimper, their xG process deteriorating to levels we expect to see from relegated teams.
Unless something changes, Bruno Lage's side could be a team that are looking nervously over their shoulders, though as things stand, Infogol has the Old Gold finishing in secure bottom-half spot.
Newcastle - Higher
- Last season - 11th
- 22/23 Forecast position - 10th
Newcastle are one team many are expected a big leap forward from, but the Infogol model predicts baby-steps this season, improving from 11th to 10th.
The Magpies were turned around by Eddie Howe, though the amout of points they accumulated didn't align with their underlying process.
They performed like a mid-to-bottom-half team after his appointment, but they are trending in a very positive direction.
Crystal Palace - Higher
- Last season - 12th
- 22/23 Forecast position - 7th
Crystal Palace were one of the more unfortunate teams in the league last season in terms of actual position versus Infogol expected position, finishing 12th but ranking sixth on expected points (xP).
Patrick Vieira completely transformed them on the pitch and on the spreadsheets, making them a better watch by playing more progressive football while in turn improving their underlying numbers.
There is no reason this improvement shouldn't continue this season, with summer additions and exciting players coming into the campaign fully fit only expected to strengthen the Eagles.
Infogol has them forecast to finish a lofty seventh.
Brentford - Higher
- Last season - 13th
- 22/23 Forecast position - 12th
Brentford are predicted to struggle by many this season, mainly due to having no Christian Eriksen.
But, people are forgetting that their underlying process prior to the Danes arrival was mightily impressive and top half worthy - they were just experiencing som bad luck.
They thrived after he was integrated of course, but Brentford are a club - like Brighton - who I trust to get the recruitment right, meaning they aren't expected to struggle.
Aston Villa - Higher
- Last season - 14th
- 22/23 Forecast position - 11th
Aston Villa are one of those teams many are expecting big things from this season, and while they are fancied to improve upon last season's finish, the amount of improvement required for them to become serious European contenders or even top-haf certs is big.
Defensively they were steady under Steven Gerrard, but their attack was their achilles heel, creating no where near enough to see them climb.
That could all change this season, which would make them a threat, but a comfortable mid-table finish is forecast.
Southampton - Lower
- Last season - 15th
- 22/23 Forecast position - 17th
Southampton finished last season poorly, with only their early season results keeping them out of major relegation trouble.
There have been plenty of incomings this summer, but all are unknowns, meaning it's anyones guess as to whether those players will improve their process.
Infogol is forecasting a difficult season for the Saints, forecasting a 17th placed finish.
Everton - Higher
- Last season - 16th
- 22/23 Forecast position - 15th
Frank Lampard, probably through more luck than judgement, kept Everton in the league last season, mainly thanks to a negative, defensive approach.
Their home form was the main difference between relegation and survival, with the Toffees collecting just 10 points from a possible 57 on the road while posting the second worst away xG process (-0.91 xGD per game).
Infogol thinks they will have enough to stay up again this term, but will still be in the bottom six.
Leeds - Higher
- Last season - 17th
- 22/23 Forecast position - 16th
Leeds secured survival on the final day of the season, but thoroughly deserved to stay up according to xG, ranking as the 13th best team on xP.
They were excellent under Jesse Marsch, which bodes well, though there are question marks, particularly after the sales of Kalvin Phillips and Raphinha.
Nonetheless, Infogol has them surviving yet again, a tad more comfortably than last term.
Promoted teams forecast position
Fulham - 18th
Fulham were promoted as the best Championship team Infogol has ever seen, posting mind-bogglingly dominant numbers.
They are better prepared than last time they were in the top flight, though given the quality gap between the Premier League the Infogol model has them forecast to finish in the bottom three.
Bournemouth - 19th
That is the same for Bournemouth, who just hung on to second place in the Championship regular season.
They come up with a squad that looks some way off the levels required at this level, and a coach around who there are major question marks, meaning relegation is forecast.
Nottingham Forest - 20th
Nottingham Forest were excellent after appointing Steve Cooper, their process transforming to make them deserving of promotion.
They have splashed the cash this summer, bringing in a large number of players, and while the majority look like good business, the amount of new faces could be seen as a negative.
Infogol has them propping up the table, though depending on how well their new players gel could determine their fate.
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Does Betfair ambasador Kevin Hatchard agree with the model? Find out whee he thinks each team will finish come May here.