Premier League Predictions: From evens to 50/1 - five bets for the season to come

Alex Keble
01 August 2022
6:00 min read

Has Brendan Rodgers reached the end of the road at Leicester?

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Alex Keble picks out five bets from the #oddsonthat feature ahead of the start of the new Premier League season...

"Sancho looks reborn in his favoured right position and Rashford is finally getting some detailed coaching, which should mean plenty of chances for Martial to hit 15 goals."

The 2022/23 Premier League season kicks off on Friday and as we pour over preview pull-outs, fantasy football apps, and transfer gossip now is the perfect time to place some outright bets on the year ahead.

Looking beyond the traditional outright markets, Betfair's #oddsonthat markets provides hundreds of different ways to bet, combining the fortunes of multiple clubs to build all the way up to 300/1. What's more, for the first time this year you can place an accumulator bet on all of the managers you think will leave their Premier League club before the campaign is out.

Here, we pick out five of the best non-traditional bets on the eve of the new season, starting with evens and going all the way up to 48.047/1.

Leicester to have a dreadful season at 2.111/10

Kicking off with a simple one-team bet, Leicester City to finish in the bottom half is available at 2.111/10, which seems like a pretty safe way to start considering their disastrous summer window. It had already looked like we were approaching the end of the road for Brendan Rodgers, considering their 2021/22 comedown after twice missing out on the Champions League on the final day, but now it seems certain to be the case.

Leicester are yet to make a single new signing, which is worrying enough, but worse than that the vultures are circling.

Nobody has left just yet, although Arsenal are after Youri Tielemans, Tottenham reportedly want James Maddison, Nice are after Kasper Schmeichel, and Chelsea want Wesley Fofana.

It is possible that none of these players will leave, but the fact they are being linked suggests all is not well in the dressing room. There is a general sense of malaise, which is likely to carry over to the pitch and see Leicester finish outside the top ten - behind the likes of Aston Villa, Newcastle United, West Ham United, and Brighton.

Arsenal & Forest can expect good seasons at 5.04/1

Our second favourite bet, priced at 5.04/1, is: Arsenal to finish in the top four, Gabriel Jesus to score 15+ EPL goals, and Nottingham Forest to avoid relegation.

The Gunners have enjoyed a strong summer and look ready to finally breach that top four, not least because the sale of Romelu Lukaku at Chelsea and the difficulties they have had this summer suggests there is finally space for both north London clubs. Manchester United are unlikely to be ready to make it, either, presenting Mikel Arteta with a good opportunity.

Gabriel Jesus is a superb signing, and after scoring seven goals in five pre-season friendlies it would appear that he will benefit from finally getting consistent first-team action. What's more, as a better link player than Alexandre Lacazette he can help bring the best out of Bukayo Saka and new captain Martin Odegaard. With a 0.51 goals per 90 record over his whole career, Jesus should hit 15 - and propel the Gunners to fourth.

Forest can be this season's surprise package.

They have bought very smartly in the window, while Steve Cooper's tactical sophistication draws parallels with Thomas Frank and Chris Wilder before him. Their bold playing style, and unusual tactical strategy, should catch people by surprise in front of a bouncing home crowd. That element of the new can keep them up, aided by the likes of Jesse Lingard and Omar Richards.

Martial can be a surprise hit at 8.07/1

It is hard to know if Erik ten Hag has what it takes to make a success of his first season at Manchester United, and it would be a fool's errand to predict their final league position. Consequently we have focused on one player in particular who looks back to his best in pre-season: Anthony Martial is available at the surprisingly long odds of 8.07/1 to score 15+ goals.

He looks likely to be the club's first choice striker this season, given that even if Cristiano Ronaldo stays he won't fit in with Ten Hag's high-pressing tactics. The new manager fuses traditional Dutch possession with a touch of Germanic attacking, the forwards expected to play with speed and verticality to make use of transitional space. That's why Martial, Marcus Rashford, and Jadon Sancho have been starting together under Ten Hag.

They have the energy, intelligence, and work-rate to learn Ten Hag's methods and begin a new era of positional rotation and quick, darting attacks. Sancho looks reborn in his favoured right position and Rashford is finally getting some detailed coaching, which should mean plenty of chances for Martial to hit 15 goals.

Five-part acca depends on title battle for 34.033/1

This one is a bit more complicated, but at 34.033/1 seems well worth a punt: Man City to win the title, Liverpool to be runners-up, Spurs to get top four, Arsenal to get top six, Aston Villa to finish top 10, and Leeds to go down.

Spurs have had a brilliant transfer window and after a full summer of Antonio Conte's ruthless training will surely be in a position to at least equal what they achieved last year, especially with Richarlison, Yves Bissouma, and Ivan Perisic providing significant upgrades across the team.

Aston Villa have gone under the radar, but Steven Gerrard has done well to attract Neil Critchley as assistant manager, with the former Blackpool boss likely to improve Villa's tactical variety and complexity, in turn bringing a lot more out of Leon Bailey and Emiliano Buendia. Philippe Coutinho, Boubacar Kamara, and Diego Carlos are strong signings, too.

Leeds United hugely overachieved under Marcelo Bielsa and still possess what is largely a Championship-level squad, so it is inevitable they will drop significantly in 2022/23. When you factor in the losses of Rafinha and Kalvin Phillips, surely they stand no chance of staying up.

This bet rests on who wins the title, and with Erling Haaland likely to score a hatful of goals it is difficult to look beyond the obvious answer. Liverpool will push them hard, but with Jack Grealish improving over the summer and Haaland there to convert more of City's chances, Pep Guardiola can make it five in six.

Six managers under threat at 47.0

Finally, at just over 47.0 you can back the following six managers to be out of a job before the end of the season: Frank Lampard, Bruno Lage, Ralph Hasenhuttl, Jesse March, Marco Silva, and Brendan Rodgers. Last season there were 10 mid-season manager departures, so six is not unlikely.

We have already mentioned the problems for Marsch and Rodgers, so let's look at the other four.

Southampton have declined year on year in terms of points tallies and have had yet another underwhelming summer, leaving the strong suspicion that the Hasenhuttl era is reaching its natural conclusion.

Everton have lost Richarlison and only just survived last year, while Lampard has not shown any particular talent for management in his short career. James Tarkowski and Dwight McNeil are hardly inspiring signings, and in fact make free agent Sean Dyche all the more enticing for the Everton owners.

Silva has a history of failing at this level because his football is too attacking and his defence hopelessly disorganised, which seems pretty likely to happen at Fulham this season. They were free-scoring in the Championship and should struggle to cope, leading to a panicky sacking before May.

Wolves massively out-performed their xG last season, getting very lucky indeed early in the season before the rot set in. Nothing this summer suggests Lage will turn it around, leading to a relegation battle and his dismissal.

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Recommended bets

Back Leicester City to finish in the bottom half at 2.111/10 Back Arsenal to finish in the top four, Gabriel Jesus to score 15+ EPL goals, and Nottingham Forest to avoid relegation at 5.04/1 Back Anthony Martial to score 15+ goals at 8.07/1. Back Man City to win the title, Liverpool to be runners-up, Spurs to get top four, Arsenal to get top six, Aston Villa to finish top 10, and Leeds to go down at 34.033/1. Back Frank Lampard, Bruno Lage, Ralph Hasenhuttl, Jesse March, Marco Silva, and Brendan Rodgers to leave their post before the end of the season at 48.047/1