Infogol's Steven Railston uses expected goals (xG) to predict the likely winners and scorelines of each Premier League match in Gameweek 11.
"Spurs boast a wealth of quality that can take the game to Arsenal, and they should seize the initiative here, with Harry Kane and Son Heung-min thriving under Mourinho’s tutelage."
Burnley can hold Everton
Burnley vs Everton
Burnley have endured a difficult season so far, securing their first win of the campaign in their penultimate fixture against Crystal Palace (xG: BUR 1.6 - 1.4 CRY). Furthermore, their 5-0 dismantling at Manchester City most recently can be forgiven, with the Clarets simply unable to compete with one of Europe's most elite sides. Prior to that clash, Burnley had conceded an average of just 1.2 xGA per game and maintaining a strong back line has been vital, with Sean Dyche's side underwhelming in attack (0.9 xGF pg). However, Everton now visit Turf Moor, and the rate they've conceded chances since making an excellent start is worrying. The Blues have conceded an average of 2.3 xGA per game across their last six matches, conceding 10 of their 14 big chances (>35%) in those games. Until this issue is solved, results won't improve, although the hosts might not have enough firepower to take advantage here. The Infogol model calculates a likely chance (54% U2.5) this will be a low scoring game, and it wouldn't be a surprise to see the points shared (28%).
Another big win for Manchester City
Man City vs Fulham
Manchester City stylishly beat Burnley 5-0 on the weekend, rediscovering their goalscoring form (xG: MNC 1.9 - 0.5 BUR). They took their chances well, something they've otherwise failed to do this season and they'll be eager to build on that performance. Also, City are now looking defensively strong (1.2 xGA pg) , an area they've often looked vulnerable in - only Chelsea have conceded less xG this campaign. Fulham's chances therefore seem incredibly slim in this fixture, although their win away at Leicester was a step in the right direction (xG: LEI 1.5 - 2.0 FUL). They still conceded their fair share of opportunities, though, and unlike City, they've been abysmal in defence (1.7 xGA pg) since returning to the topflight. Pep Guardiola's side should once again enjoy themselves against struggling opposition, and they are unsurprisingly heavy favourites for this match (81%), which the Infogol model suggests could be a highly entertaining game (53% O.35).
Manchester United to burst West Ham's bubble
West Ham vs Manchester United
West Ham secured their third consecutive win on Monday night, edging Aston Villa 2-1 at the Olympic Stadium (xG: WHU 0.6 - 2.7 AVL). They were fortunate to win that game, with Villa squandering multiple chances, and while they've now lost just once in five matches, their underlying numbers have been poor from across that period (1.0 xGF and 1.6 xGA pg). Consequently, their results may soon begin to deteriorate, gradually reflecting their performances, and Manchester United will arrive into this game high on confidence, unbeaten in four. While the Red Devils needed an inspired Edinson Cavani display to comeback from two goals down at Southampton, the result was well deserved (xG: SOU 0.5 - 2.8 MUN). The Saints created just 0.5 xG, and Ole Gunnar Solskjaer's side have made commendable progress in defence in recent weeks, conceding an average of 0.8 xGA per game across their last 10 matches. That can only add to their chances of winning the three points here, which the Infogol model calculates is likely (52%). However, it has also clearly considered West Ham's healthy habit of finding the back of the net (54% BTTS), and both sides can score on Saturday evening.
Chelsea can regain winning thread
Chelsea vs Leeds
It's fair to say Chelsea have been easy on the eye this season, with their dynamic attack proving deadly (1.7 xGF pg). Despite this, they seemed to be devoid of creativity against Tottenham, with Spurs frustrating the Blues to ensure the points were shared (xG: CHE 0.9 - 0.2 TOT). That was only the fourth time Chelsea have failed to score this term, and now against opposition who like to contribute to the spectacle, they should find their stride again. Leeds, of course, visit Stamford Bridge here after an impressive win over Everton (xG: EVE 1.5 - 3.4 LEE), racking up an outstanding 3.4 xG worth of chances. Marcelo Bielsa is synonymous with implementing a swashbuckling style of play and watching Leeds this campaign has been brilliant for the neutral, with goals at both sides of the pitch seemingly guaranteed (1.8 xGF and 1.7 xGA pg). Chelsea (65%) should have enough quality to win, though, exploiting Leed's questionable defence, and the Infogol model believes one side, more than likely the hosts, will keep a clean sheet (48% BTTS 'No').
West Brom to draw with Palace
West Brom vs Crystal Palace
West Brom won their first game of the campaign on the weekend, beating Sheffield United at the Hawthorns (xG: WBA 2.0 - 3.3 SHU). They were certainly fortunate to win that match, with the visitors failing to take their chances, and the Baggies have now conceded a staggering average of 2.2 xGA per game. To compound their misery, they've also been woeful in attack (0.8 xGF pg), and understandably, they are the worst team in the league according to expected goals. Crystal Palace haven't exactly produced fireworks this campaign, either, and their best chance in their lacklustre defeat to Newcastle was given a probability of a measly 8%. Without Wilfried Zaha, Palace look toothless, and they've averaged 1.1 xGF per game in his absence. While Zaha should be available this upcoming fixture, doubts still remain over Roy Hodgson's side attacking capabilities. The Infogol model calculates a 68% chance there will be less than three goals (U2.5), and these two sides being content to share the points seems likely.
Sheffield United to test Leicester
Sheffield United vs Leicester
Sheffield United were left demoralised on the weekend, failing to score despite creating 3.3 xG. Interestingly, since Infogol began collating data in 2014, only Manchester City have created more expected goals without netting in a single Premier League game. Furthermore, the Blades have scored only two non-penalty goals from 11.4 non-pen xG this season, and their conundrum in front of goal has left Chris Wilder's side at the root of the table. If they continue to carve out opportunities at the rate they are, results should inevitability get better, and they'll be buoyed by Leicester's recent defeat to Fulham (xG: LEI 1.5 - 2.0 FUL). The Foxes have appeared vulnerable in defence on more than one occasion this term, and they've conceded an average of 2.4 xGA per game across their last three fixtures. To conclude, all signs point towards the hosts being able to rid themselves of their attacking hoodoo, although this game should be tightly contested (55% U2.5). Sheff United might be able to take the lead, but I'll be surprised to see Leicester lose at Bramall Lane.
Tottenham can claim bragging rights
Tottenham vs Arsenal
Tottenham have played some outstanding football this season, mounting an unlikely title charge. Their attack under Jose Mourinho has been fluid and dynamic (1.8 xGF pg), although the Portuguese opted for the pragmatic approach against Manchester City, and most recently Chelsea (xG: CHE 0.9 - 0.2 TOT). His tactics for the North London derby remain to be seen, but Spurs boast a wealth of quality that can take the game to Arsenal, and they should seize the initiative here, with Harry Kane (0.7 xG/avg match) and Son Heung-min (0.4 xG/avg match) thriving under Mourinho's tutelage. Arsenal have endured a miserable start the season, taking just 13 points from 10 games. Their underlying numbers leave a lot to be desired (1.3 xGF and 1.4 xGA pg), and the Gunners have created less and conceded more xG per game under Mikel Arteta than when under Unai Emery in the Premier League. Their regression is clear, and it seems sensible to side with Tottenham (45%) to emerge with the bragging rights. Arsenal might be able to score, though, with the Infogol model calculating a 56% chance of BTTS.
Wolves to fall short at Anfield
Liverpool vs Wolves
Liverpool's squad has been rocked by an injury crisis, and since their assured 3-0 win over Leicester they've delivered some underwhelming performances. For three consecutive games, the champions have now failed to create over 0.3 xG in the first half, and they looked off the pace against Brighton at the Amex (xG: BRI 2.2 - 0.3 LIV). On the contrary, Wolves have appeared back to their best in recent weeks, conceding an average of 1.2 xGA per game since their West Ham debacle. Their deserved win at the Emirates on Sunday (xG: ARS 1.7 - 2.3 WOL) was a stark reminder that it's dangerous to underestimate them, and Nuno Espírito Santo will ensure Wolves will be hard to beat at Anfield. However, they lost 1-0 on Merseyside last season, and history could repeat itself, with the Infogol model making Liverpool the likely winners (52%) in another low scoring affair (53% U2.5).
Seagulls to topple Saints at the Amex
Brighton vs Southampton
Brighton's decision to hand over the reigns to Graham Potter at the Amex has been quickly vindicated, with the Seagulls playing an attractive style of football. Potter's side would have felt aggrieved they didn't beat Liverpool most recently (xG: BRI 2.2 - 0.3 LIV), and this is a testament to their continued progress. They've recorded strong underlying numbers this term (1.6 xGF and 1.2 xGA pg), which suggest they'll comfortably finish in midtable, and they'll fancy their chances of winning on Monday night. Not many would have predicted Southampton's meteoric rise this campaign, but the Saints have won 17 points from 10 games. They were unbeaten in seven games before their defeat to Manchester United (xG: SOU 0.5 - 2.8 MUN), where they once again made the most of their chances. However, this level of clinical finishing seems unsustainable, with Southampton averaging just 0.8 xGF per game across their last five fixtures. Brighton (40%) should be able to handle this low attacking output and can come out on top in this South Coast fixture with minimal fuss (50% U2.5).
Burnley vs Everton: Back the 1-1 @ 7.26/1
Manchester City vs Fulham: Back the 4-0 @ 8.07/1
West Ham vs Manchester United: Back the 1-2 @ [10.5
Chelsea vs Leeds: Back the 2-0 @ 8.27/1
West Brom vs Crystal Palace: Back the 1-1 @ 7.06/1
Sheffield vs Leicester: Back the 1-1 @ 7.413/2
Tottenham vs Arsenal: Back the 1-0 @ 8.07/1
Brighton vs Southampton: Back the 2-0 @ 15.014/1