Premier League Betting Pointers: Spurs under-priced and Hull looking over their shoulders

Steve Bruce's Hull have been in woeful form of late
Steve Bruce's Hull have been in woeful form of late

Betfair Editors look at the main betting pointers from the weekend and think that Hull City are in real trouble. Meanwhile, Tottenham tend to be criminally under-priced at White Hart Lane...

"Having strengthened quite well in the summer according to many pundits, the Tigers are now in serious danger of being dragged into the relegation battle and four of their next five games are against Tottenham, Everton, Chelsea and Manchester United."


1. Chelsea can't keep clean sheets

With Chelsea now trading at just 1.211/5 to win the Premier League title, and betting shop bosses up and down the country contemplating whether to pull a marketing masterstroke and pay out on the Blues before we even reach Christmas, it's becoming increasingly hard to find a decent even money shot when wagering on Jose Mourinho's men.

But one angle to seriously consider is the Both Teams to Score market, with Chelsea seemingly finding it impossible to keep goals out, whoever the opposition.

It's now five games without a clean sheet for John Terry, Gary Cahill and co, and already this season we've witnessed Everton score three past the Blues, Swansea score two at Stamford Bridge, Bolton and Shrewsbury score against Mourinho's men in the Capital One Cup, and the likes of Maribor, Schalke, Burnley, Crystal Palace and QPR find the back of the net against them. Add in goals for Liverpool, Man City, and Manchester United, and the game count in which Chelsea have conceded at least one goal is already at 12 this season.

Crucially however, they're scoring at the other end, and that means that backing Both Teams to Score in games involving Chelsea could be the way forward. That option should be available to back at around 2.01/1 when the Blues host West Brom after the international break. 


2. Hull City can't afford to be complacent about their Premier League status

A 1-0 defeat at Burnley was the latest poor result for Steve Bruce's Hull City and they've now harvested a measly eight points from their last ten Premier League games.

Having strengthened quite well in the summer according to many pundits, the Tigers are now in serious danger of being dragged into the relegation battle and four of their next five games are against Tottenham, Everton, Chelsea and Manchester United.

That 2-0 win over Crystal Palace now seems like a long time ago, and with Hull's price for relegation now into 4.94/1 having been matched at 9.89/1 earlier in the season it may be your last chance to get a back in ahead of their odds shortening even more after five tough games this side of Christmas. 


3. Southampton are clean sheet kings

If Chelsea can't be relied upon to keep their opponents out, one team that certainly can is Southampton. The 2-0 routine win over Leicester was their sixth clean sheet in eight games and while Dusan Tadic, Graziano Pelle and this week Shane Long are taking all the plaudits, it's their miserly back line and goalkeeper that should receive their fair share of praise.

A solid defensive unit is what the Saints' success is built on, and they've only conceded five league goals in total this season, that's under half of the next best defence (the aforementioned Chelsea). 

While there is probably no value in backing Ronald Koeman's men to finish in the top six, or even the top four this season now, it may be worth looking at the Southampton Win to Nil? market a bit more often, especially when they're at home. Next up for them is a trip to Aston Villa, scorers of a frankly unbelievable ONE goal in their last seven league games.

You know what to do.


4. Tottenham consistently under-priced at White Hart Lane

Another Sunday, another home defeat for struggling Spurs - matched at just 1.664/6 to win against Stoke, with the visitors backed at 6.25/1. It was Tottenham's fourth home defeat of the season and, while they all followed Thursday night Europa League games, there are clearly bigger issues here and one punters can take advantage of - assuming the market doesn't catch up to just how bad the north Londoners are right now. Mauricio Pochettino is now under pressure - into second favourite in the Next Manager to Leave market - but serious questions have to be asked of Daniel Levy and Franco Baldini, who have overseen the purchase of a series of average and samey players. 


5. If the skies open, it might not just be water that rains down

Watchers of Manchester City's visit to QPR and Arsenal's visit to Swansea at the weekend would have noticed the appalling weather conditions that greeted the teams as they ran out. 

What's also interesting is that as the conditions deteriorated, the amount of bookings dished out increased dramatically. The QPR-City game ended up with six yellows (and arguably should have featured more) and Swansea and Arsenal, two teams not really well-known for their agricultural style, ended up with a colossal ten between them.

This may well be a market worth concentrating on if the rain starts teeming down next time you're watching a Premier League game - Betfair's Exchange carries a number of card-related markets - as it appears to not only affect player judgement but the referee appears inclined to step up his strictness level due to concerns about player safety.

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