Premier League 3pm Kick-Offs: Back Citizens to brush aside Saints

Mike Norman
06 December 2013

Manuel Pellegrini's Man City rate a good bet this weekend

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Mike Norman previews Saturday's five 3pm kick-offs, including Manchester City's trip to Southampton with our man believing the title favourites can win again away from home...

"All in all I rate City as an excellent price to win this encounter at 1.84/5, and believe that backing them to lead at half time before going on to secure the victory is also a good way to profit."

Back Man City HT/Man City FT @ 2.962/1

Crystal Palace 2.77/4 v Cardiff 2.962/1; The Draw 3.3512/5

I'll keep this preview quite brief as surely this encounter is all about goals, or lack of them perhaps I should say.

Opta tell us that Cardiff haven't scored for over three hours in the Premier League, that they are the second lowest scorers in the division, and their opponents Crystal Palace have scored fewer goals than any club in the top flight this season. It doesn't auger well if you fancy a goal-fest does it?

Luckily I don't fancy goals in this clash but one day such a match-up will result in a barrage of goals leaving someone, most likely myself, with egg on the face.

All of Palace's last six games have gone under 2.5 goals, in fact their last four have gone under 1.5 goals, while Cardiff's last three away games have finished with two or less goals being scored. It doesn't take a brain surgeon to see where I'm going here - Under 2.5 Goals is the bet.

Recommended Bet: Back Under 2.5 Goals @ 1.75/7

Liverpool 1.330/100 v West Ham 13.012/1; The Draw 6.411/2

Again, I'll keep this preview brief because it will be along the lines of similar previews when Liverpool have been a short price to win at Anfield, in that perhaps the best angle in is simply to back Luis Suarez to score.

Four times I've recommended a wager on the brilliant striker to find the back of the net this season and he's obliged every time; in fact on two of those occasions he went on to score a hat-trick at least - and what about those four goals he scored against Norwich by the way; absolutely brilliant.

My reasoning is that the Reds are more than capable of throwing in a stinker - like they did at home to Southampton and last week at Hull, so backing them at 1.330/100 or lower is never going to be my cup of tea. If they do win comfortably though then Suarez is very likely to get on the scoresheet.

The Uruguayan has scored an incredible 14 Premier League goals in nine starts this season, and those goals have come in just six different games. The three games that he played and didn't find the net Liverpool failed to win anyway, which adds weight to my belief that backing Suarez to score in these type of games is a better bet than simply backing the Reds.

And of course, there's always the chance that Liverpool don't win but Suarez still scores, which means the bet still lands.

Recommended Bet: Back Luis Suarez To Score @ 1.68/13

Southampton 5.14/1 v Man City 1.84/5; The Draw 3.9

I did hint in midweek that maybe Southampton's back-to-back defeats to Arsenal and Chelsea may have dented their confidence a bit, especially as they played ever so well at times in both of those games.

I'm not sure it was down to confidence or not but it certainly came as a surprise to see the Saints concede three goals and lose at home to Aston Villa on Wednesday night. The good news is that Opta tell us that Southampton haven't lost four league games on the bounce since the start of last season. Actually, that's not that long ago so maybe it isn't such good news!

I wouldn't go as far as saying Man City's 2-3 win at West Brom signalled a return to their very best form away from home but such is the scoring power of Manuel Pellegrini's men it's impossible to oppose them.

Opta tell us that City have scored 40 goals this season which is 10 more than any other teams in the Premier League. The likes of Yaya Toure (as many goals this season as he scored in the whole of last season) and Sergio Aguero (10 goals in his last nine league appearances) are in superb form, so too are Alvaro Negredo and Samir Nasri, and they've also got Vincent Kompany back fit in defence.

All in all I rate City as an excellent price to win this encounter at 1.84/5, and believe that backing them to lead at half time before going on to secure the victory is also a good way to profit.

Recommended Bet: Back Man City HT/Man City FT @ 2.962/1 (best bet)

Stoke 6.86/1 v Chelsea 1.635/8; The Draw 4.1

Stoke have won just one of their last 11 Premier League fixtures and have a far from impressive record against Chelsea, so the odds are firmly stacked against them here.

Opta tell us that the Potters have scored just three goals in their last 10 league appearances against the Blues and that they have failed to find the net in any of the last four of those games. What's more, Chelsea have won 10 and drawn two of the last 12 meetings and also inflicted a 0-7 win at the Britannia Stadium just three years ago.

As well as winning this very fixture 0-4 last season Joe Mourinho's men are in decent goal-scoring form away from home at present, scoring at least three goals in three of their last four league away games.

I can't see anything other than a straightforward win for the Blues here and will repeat the bet I did on Wednesday night; Chelsea to win by at least two goals. We were unsuccessful against Sunderland but I'm confident of making immediate amends.

Recommended Bet: Back Chelsea -1 to Win @ 2.47/5

West Brom 1.910/11 v Norwich 4.84/1; The Draw 3.7511/4

The Baggies have been performing quite well of late following a poor start to the season when they struggled to score goals. A win at Old Trafford, scoring two goals at Stamford Bridge, and scoring two in their narrow midweek loss to Man City show that Steve Clarke's men have ability and I fully expect them to get the better of Norwich on Saturday afternoon.

One of my main reasons for siding with Albion is Norwich's poor away form - the Canaries have lost six out of their seven away games this term including the last four on the spin at the expense of 18 goals conceded.

Adding further confidence to a home victory is the Opta stat that tells us West Brom have defeated Norwich in five of the last seven league meetings, while the Baggies' current form at the Hawthorns has seen them score exactly two goals in each of their last three games.

Scoring two or more on Saturday is likely to result in a victory for the home side, just like it did when Albion beat Crystal Palace and Sunderland when a similar price to the one on offer this time around.

Recommended Bet: Back West Brom to Win @ 1.910/11

Season P/L (1pt each bet, 2pts best bet)

Wagered: 90 pts
Returned: 84.57 pts
P/L: -5.43 pts

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