Premier League 3pm Kick-Offs: Reds look a good bet to beat goal-shy Villa

Liverpool fans could d be celebarting an away win at Villa
Liverpool fans could d be celebarting an away win at Villa

Six more top-flight games kicking off at the traditional time of 3pm for Mike Norman to get stuck into this Saturday afternoon, and our man believes Liverpool should have little problems seeing off goal-shy Aston Villa...

"Opta tell us that the Reds have lost just one of their last 16 league visits to Villa so whether it be Liverpool in form, or Liverpool just beating poor-quality sides, whichever way you look at it they should win this one too."

Back Liverpool @ 10/111.92 to beat Aston Villa

Aston Villa 4/14.9 v Liverpool 10/111.92; The Draw 13/53.6

It's difficult to gauge Liverpool's recent form - have they turned the corner (five wins and two draws from their last seven matches) or are they simply beating teams that they really should be beating (Bournemouth, Wimbledon, Sunderland, Burnley for example)?

Whichever way you look at it however the Reds have a terrific chance to continue their winning ways when they travel to Aston Villa on Saturday afternoon.

Brendan Rodgers' men have been far from impressive in winning four away games on the spin, but the fact is that they are emerging victorious and they probably won't need to be any better than what they have been recently to take all three points from Villa Park.

Paul Lambert's men simply can't score goals. In the last four weeks they've recorded blanks against West Brom, Swansea, Sunderland, Crystal Palace, and Leicester, while they scored just one - very late in the game - against hapless Championship side Blackpool in the FA Cup.

Opta tell us that the Reds have lost just one of their last 16 league visits to Villa so whether it be Liverpool in form, or Liverpool just beating poor-quality sides, whichever way you look at it they should win this one too.

Recommended Bet
Back Liverpool to Win @ 10/111.92
(best bet)

Burnley 6/42.54 v Crystal Palace 9/43.25; The Draw 9/43.3

It's widely known that Burnley are one of the hardest-working sides in the Premier League, they continue to be prominent in any Opta stat that has 'miles run' included, and when you're scrapping for your life at the bottom of the table that's an excellent attribute to have.

What's more, Sean Dyche's men are now scoring goals regularly - 10 in their last five league and cup games for example - and that will give them a terrific chance of recording a win here.

Palace secured their first league win under Alan Pardew last weekend with a terrific victory over Tottenham, but away from home they've been extremely poor recently - just one league goal scored on the road since October and no wins since September.

I fancy we're in for a low-scoring affair but the Clarets are the most likely side to find the back of the net for my liking and that in itself makes them the team to side with.

Recommended Bet
Back Burnley to Win @ 6/42.54

Leicester 7/42.7 v Stoke 2/13.0; The Draw 12/53.4

It's well documented that Stoke have been very unpredictable this seasons, wins over Arsenal, Man City, Everton, and Spurs tell you how good they can be on their day, while home defeats to Villa, Burnley, and Saturday's opponents Leicester highlight how they perform when they're off form.

So it's hard to know what to expect from Mark Hughes' men, though they have been in quite decent form of late, beating Everton and West Brom in the Premier League and drawing with Manchester United.

The Foxes have improved recently also however, winning crucial league matches against Hull and Aston Villa, drawing with Liverpool at Anfield, and beating Newcastle in the FA Cup.

I'm expecting this to be a very tight affair, possibly settled by a single goal, but I can't call a winner so will rely on Opta to help us out once more. They tell us that 15 of the last 25 matches between these two at Leicester's home have ended all-square, so let's take a punt on that outcome once more at the 12/53.4 available.

Recommended Bet
Back The Draw @ 12/53.4

QPR 5/16.0 v Man Utd 4/61.66; The Draw 16/54.2

QPR are statistically one of the worst away sides in Premier League history, but at Loftus Road they remain of interest, especially at 5/16.0 against a team that appears to have suffered another dip in form recently.

True, Harry Redknapp's have hardly set the world alight in recent weeks on home soil, drawing with Crystal Palace and Swansea, but prior to those matches they'd won three on the spin in front of their own fans and scored 16 goals in seven home games.

Rangers played some decent teams in that spell - Liverpool and Man City for example - and they more than held their own, and I fancy they'll give us an excellent run for our money against Louis van Gaal's stuttering United side.

The Red Devils have won just twice away from home all season in the league, and most recently they failed to beat both Aston Villa and Stoke on the road. It's just one win in five league outings now for LVG's men and I'm happy to take them on with a team that usually perform very well on home soil.

Recommended Bet
Back QPR to Win @ 5/16.0

Swansea 13/27.4 v Chelsea 4/71.58; The Draw 100/304.3

Chelsea's away form is starting to become a little concerning and it's the reason their handsome lead over Man City was wiped out over the Christmas period. Just one win in five on the road, and that heavy loss to Tottenham last time, is form that has given every other club good reason to believe they can beat the Blues.

Jose Mourinho's men opened up a two-point gap with victory over Newcastle last Saturday but it was rather alarming how many chances the north-east outfit created in the first half of that game.

Swansea are arguably a better side than Newcastle and their excellent passing game should allow them a few opportunities against Chelsea's slightly overrated defence.

Garry Monk's men scored two at Stamford Bridge earlier in the season and I can see them getting on the scoresheet again, even without Wilfried Bony.

It's tough to make the Swans the selection because Chelsea have so much firepower and can destroy teams when they are on song, but at just 4/71.57 to back I believe they are worth a small lay against a very good Swansea side.

Recommended Bet
Lay Chelsea to Win @ 4/71.58

Tottenham 8/131.61 v Sunderland 11/26.6; The Draw 100/304.3

Tottenham were involved in yet another 2-1 scoreline last Saturday - their 10th in total from their last 20 league and cup outings - but this time it was a reversal at Cyrstal Palace who were securing their first league win under Alan Pardew.

The problem with going for a 2-1 scoreline here is that Sunderland rarely score, although Jermain Defoe's move to Wearside was completed in time for the former Spurs man to be available at his old stomping ground.

I wouldn't put anyone off the 2-1 Tottenham Win - available to back at 8/19.2 - given the amount of goals Spurs have been conceding lately but I think the smart play has to be to continue backing Harry Kane to score until his golden spell of form starts to ease off a little.

Kane - one of the stars of the season so far without question - has scored 17 league and cup goals this term, and he has blossomed beautifully since being given a regular place in Mauricio Pochettino's Premier League starting XI (seven goals in the last seven games Tottenham have scored)

I fancy Spurs to win this game comfortably and I won't be surprised at all if Kane enjoys another terrific afternoon. He's available to back at 9/25.4 to score first and at around 5/16.0 to score two or more, and I'm backing both.

Recommended Bet
Back Harry Kane First Goalscorer @ 9/25.4
Back Harry Kane to Score 2 or More @ 5/16.0

You can follow me on Twitter - @MikkyMo73

Premier League 2014/15 Season P/L

Staked: 122 pts
Returned: 131.22 pts
P/L: + 9.22 pts

*based on 1pt each bet, 2pts best bet

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