Liverpool 1.4840/85 v Hull 8.27/1; The Draw 4.94/1
Liverpool haven't kept a clean sheet for nine league and cup games, and seven of those games reulted in Over 2.5 Goals paying out. With the Reds being very difficult to back at 1.4840/85 to win the game on current form, there are no prizes for guessing what I'll be basing my recommended bet around here.
Goals is your answer. Not only have Liverpool struggled to keep clean sheets, so too have Saturday's opponents Hull. In fact the Tigers have kept just one clean sheet since the opening day of the season and they've conceded at lest two goals in six of their last seven league and cup games.
My thinking is that if the likes of Newcastle, Villa, West Ham, and West Brom can breach the Hull defence at least two times in 90 minutes, then even a below par Liverpool should do likewise at Anfield.
But not only do these two teams concede goals, they also score goals too. Steve Bruce's men have scored exactly two in each of their last six league and cup games, Brendan Rodgers' men have scored five in their last two Premier League outings.
True, we know that Liverpool are struggling in attack, but with the likes of Raheem Sterling, Steven Gerrard, Adam Lallana, and Philippe Coutinho in their side they ought to pose a threat to mid-table sides like Hull. And the good thing here is that Hull will see this as a winnable game.
I'd be very surprised if we don't witness plenty of goals in this encounter.
Back Over 3.5 Goals @ 2.68/5
Southampton 1.654/6 v Stoke 6.411/2; The Draw 4.1
The Saints have been excellent so far this season. It's easy to forget that not only are they sitting third in the table but they also beat Arsenal at the Emirates Stadium in the Capital One Cup.
Southampton's next opponents in that competition are Stoke on Tuesday night, so what better way to prepare for that game than by putting down a marker against Mark Hughes' men in Saturday afternoon's league clash.
Ronald Koeman's men have scored 14 goals at St Mary's this term and they've conceded just one. Amongst that tally they scored two early goals against Newcastle and three last weekend against Sunderland. Those who like direct form comparisons will have noticed that Sunderland beat Stoke 3-1 just a few weeks ago, scoring two first half goals.
I certainly don't expect Southampton to 'thrash' the Potters like they did Newcastle and the Black Cats recently, but I do expect them to win. I'm not interested in backing them at 1.654/6 however, so I'm going to chance my arm in the Half Time/Full Time market.
Opta tell us that the Saints have had more shots on target (50) in the Premier League this season than any club, so with this in mind and the knowledge that when they're on top form they can kill teams off early, then fingers crossed they can lead at the interval before taking another three points.
Back Southampton HT/FT @ 2.77/4
Sunderland 5.59/2 v Arsenal 1.758/11; The Draw 4.03/1
Sunderland have a really poor record against Arsenal, winning just one of their last 21 league meetings. Opta tell us that the Gunners have also won the last three league encounters at the Stadium of Light.
So Arsene Wenger's men certainly have a lot going for them this weekend, but it's hard to put their poor midweek performance against Anderlecht to the back of the mind. And you can bet your bottom dollar that Sunderland will be desperate to get on the football pitch and right the wrongs from last Saturday's 8-0 thumping at Southampton.
I remember Wigan losing 9-1 in a Premier League game abouve five years ago, but in their following game they won 1-0 - ironically against Sunderland who were in decent form at the time.
I keep hearing that it's a good time to play Sunderland right now. I'm not so sure at all, and if anything, you could argue that it's exactly the wrong time to play Gus Poyet's men and exactly the right time to play Arsenal.
This is one of the worst starts to a season Wenger has ever endured and already he has seen his side fail to beat the likes of Leicester, and last week at home to Hull. Credit to the Gunners for turning their midweek game around but for 89 minutes they were awful, and that performance came not long after their dreadful performance in Dortmund.
What I'm saying is that Arsenal, while having a squad of great players, simply don't have any momentum right now. They've been plagued by injuries and that has definitely had an affect on their form. Sunderland will be chomping at the bit here and I'm backing them to get at least a point.
Lay Arsenal @ 1.768/11
West Brom 1.9310/11 v Crystal Palace 4.67/2; The Draw 3.711/4
I'm pushing the boat out here and making Over 3.5 Goals my best bet of the day.
I wouldn't put anyone off playing it a little safer however by backing Over 2.5 Goals. I was very surprised to see that option priced up at 2.111/10 to back and I sense that the layers are still pricing Crystal Palace up on the team that finished last season - a well organised one that didn't concede many goals.
But under Neil Warnock Palace are a completely different animal. They are much more attack-minded and their games are often entertaining and goal-filled - 70% of their league and cup games have witnessed at least three goals for example, and 40% have witnessed at least four.
West Brom have hit form recently, recording a terrific win at Tottenham before thrashing Burnley 4-0. They were unlucky to lose at Liverpool 2-1 before they led twice in another high-scoring game against Manchester United on Monday night.
Alan Irvine's men are playing with a bit of confidence of late, and in Saido Berahino they have one of the Premier League's most in-form strikers. I can see the Baggies scoring goals at the moment, but I can also see them conceding plenty also.
Opta tell us that in the last two meetings between these clubs a total of four goals were scored in the final 10 minutes. We've got 90 minutes to get at least four on Saturday afternoon and I'm confident we'll get them.
Back Over 3.5 Goals @ 3.814/5 (best bet)