The Number Cruncher: Wolves have too much bite for struggling County

Kenny Jackett has added organisation to Wolves' undoubted quality
Kenny Jackett has added organisation to Wolves' undoubted quality

With no Premier League action to look at, Andrew Atherley has trained his sights on the lower leagues and he believes League One high-flyers Wolves remain underpriced even at odds-on away to bottom club Notts County

"Eleven wins out of 15 is impressive enough, but Wolves' record is better still when results against the 'true' top six are not counted - W11 D1 L1 against the rest of the division."

Recommended Bet
Wolves to beat Notts County at 1.794/5

Forget the bright lights of Wembley, the English lower leagues are the place to look for the best bets of the weekend and there is none better than Wolves, who continue to be one of the most reliable teams to back this season.

Saturday's away match at Notts County looks a mismatch and on form Wolves are a steal at 1.794/5 for the win. In essence Kenny Jackett's side are Championship quality and playing in a division that is too low for them, while County have a fight on their hands to avoid relegation to League Two.

Jackett has added organisation to the undoubted quality of his squad and they are proving far too good for most of League One. Eleven wins out of 15 is impressive enough, but Wolves' record is better still when results against the 'true' top six (including Coventry when their points deduction is taken into account) are not counted - W11 D1 L1 against the rest of the division.

County are at the bottom of the standings and their record against teams with any measure of quality is extremely poor. Six of their 10 points have come against the other three teams in the relegation zone and County's record against the rest is W1 D1 L10.

Their only clean sheets came in their two home wins against fellow strugglers Tranmere and Crewe, which points to serious problems on Saturday as Wolves have won 11 out of 13 when scoring in League One this season.

County have shown little sign of improvement for new boss Shaun Derry, with a pair of cup defeats in his first two games in charge, and Wolves look overpriced at 1.794/5.

* * * 

The other standout bet in League One is Rotherham, whose two cup wins in the past week appear to have ended the mini-slump in their league form.

If that is the case, the Millers rate a good bet at Stevenage either on the draw no bet at 1.748/11 or off 0 on the Asian handicap at 1.768/11 (which is the same bet, with stakes returned in the event of a draw).

Rotherham are a tough team to beat, which is the kind of profile to look for in this type of bet. Their four league defeats have been against top-eight teams and their record against teams below them is W4 D4 L0.

Stevenage are 19th and have lost nine out of 12 against teams above them in the table, including seven out of nine against top-half sides.

* * *

Oxford stand alongside Wolves as the only unbeaten away sides in the four English divisions and that makes them a solid bet away to Mansfield in League Two.

Like Rotherham, Oxford have the right profile to back on the draw no bet or off 0 on the Asian handicap at 1.9620/21. They have the joint-lowest number of defeats (three) in the division and their only surprise loss was at home to Bristol Rovers.

Mansfield are not without a chance - they have a league-leading seven clean sheets out of 15 - but Oxford have yet to be defeated when they have scored (W7 D3 L0 in those circumstances) and will be hard to stop.

Recommended Bets
Wolves to beat Notts County at 1.794/5
Rotherham off 0 on Asian handicap v Stevenage at 1.768/11
Oxford off 0 on Asian handicap v Mansfield at 1.9620/21

2013/14 P/L (1pt per bet)

Staked: 26pts
Returned: 26.34pts

P/L: +0.34pts

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