Overs or Unders: Anfield agony means more goals

Happy travellers: Stoke have scored in five of their six away games
Happy travellers: Stoke have scored in five of their six away games
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With seven correct from the last eight selections, Neil Harvey looks to keep the winners coming as he brings us this week's Overs or Unders recommendations...

"Even at home, Liverpool have conceded to five of their six league opponents. And now they face a Stoke side who've proved more awkward than nettles in the underwear this season. Just ask Manchester City and Spurs, both of whom lost at home to the Potters. "

Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.9620/21

Saturday

Burnley v Aston Villa - 15:00

If there's one place to expect a lack of goals on Saturday, it surely has to be at Turf Moor. And not just because of Burnley. In fact, it's Aston Villa, who've failed to score in each of their last four away games, who are the deciding factor here. Paul Lambert's side have scored just two goals on the road this season. 

That puts a lot of pressure on Burnley then to provide some goals here. That's not been the Clarets' forte though this season. In fact they are the second lowest scorers in the league, and the joint-lowest scorers at home with just four goals in six games.

There could be a goal. Maybe even two. But the chances of there being three look quite slim, and hence well worth opposing.

Recommended Bet
Under 2.5 Goals @ 1.684/6


Liverpool v Stoke - 15:00

It's the easiest thing in the world to think Liverpool are in a hole and will come out all guns blazing this week, following their humbling by Crystal Palace. And d'you know what? Sometimes it really is that easy. Brendan Rogers not only needs wins, he needs big, one-sided, impressive wins. Squeaking by 1-0 at home just isn't going to cut it at this stage. So his team have to go for it.

The problem is, the Reds are a long way off being certainties to win a game at the moment. Even at home, Liverpool have conceded to five of their six league opponents. And now they face a Stoke side who've proved more awkward than nettles in the underwear this season. Just ask Manchester City and Spurs, both of whom lost at home to the Potters. 

Stoke boss Mark Hughes will expect Liverpool to come at his side full throttle. But he's assembled a team that's quite adept at not just repelling, but also taking advantage of, such attacks. Stoke have scored in five of their six away games and have netted at least twice in half of them. So whoever wins, we should be in for an entertaining game.

Recommended Bet
Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.9620/21


Sunday

Southampton v Manchester City - 13:30
Live on Sky Sports 1

Who'd have thought we'd see Southampton up at second place in the table this far into the season? But having come this far, I expect Ronald Koeman's side to make the most of the opportunity before them, by having a real go at third placed Manchester City. And with 17 goals scored in six home matches, the Saints should have every confidence in breaching a City defence that has been repeatedly exposed on its travels, with the Blues having conceded two goals in four of their last five away games.

There's no doubt, City's defence has been woeful on the road. Their saving grace though has been their ability to score even more than they've been conceding. Manuel Pellegrini's team have netted 13 times in six away games, only once failing to score at least twice. With the gap to league leaders Chelsea now up to eight points, City have little choice but to go for this. And that can only mean one thing...goals!

Recommended Bet
Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.8810/11


Tottenham Hotspur v Everton - 16:00
Live on Sky Sports 1

At first glance, this might look like it should be a game full of goals, with Spurs-at-home and Everton-away both averaging at least three goals a game. But I'm not so convinced. And I'm going with my instincts on this one, which tell me this will be a tense, nervous affair.

Both teams would expect to be higher in the league than they are. Given the crowded nature of the league standings though, both Mauricio Pochettino and Roberto Martinez will no doubt be fearful that defeat here could see their respective team slip much further down the table. There's also little to separate the sides, who both stand on 17 points.

With both clubs having such high expectations, it's one of those games, where the victor could find themselves moving up into the top six, while the loser is left to face questions about their future. Hence, I expect the fear factor to be high here, leading both sides to take a more than cautious approach than usual.

Recommended Bet
Under 2.5 Goals @ 2.1211/10


2014/15 Season P/L

Staked: 44pts
Returned: 47.17pts
P/L: +3.17

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