Spurs can't stop scoring and West Ham are in a funk, which makes a recipe for success according to Neil Harvey as he explains now in this week's Overs or Unders...
"Mauricio Pochettino's side have been scoring for fun since the turn of the year, netting 15 times in half a dozen outings"
Chelsea v v Burnley - 15:00
It's been a hectic last four weeks for Chelsea, what with League Cup games and Champions League action sprinkled in between the bread and butter business of the Premier League. And I suspect we could see all that exertion start to take its toll.
Burnley will likely go to Stamford Bridge with a defensive mindset. It's what they've done against much lesser teams. And it's a policy that could well pay dividends. Chelsea come into this off the back of an intense run of games against opponents such as Man City, Liverpool and Paris St. Germain. The Blues do though have the luxury of a five point cushion at the top of the table. So it's highly likely we'll see Jose Mourinho inject some reserve players amid the combat-fatigued, for a game that on paper at least should be less challenging.
That though could see the game struggle to produce many goals. Even at full strength, only once in six home games this year have Chelsea managed to score more than twice. So a tired and diluted team is no banker to run riot at Stamford Bridge, and certainly not against a Burnley team that's scrapping for its life and is no stranger to parking the bus. Hence for me, the value lies in going under at a big price.
Under 2.5 Goals @ 2.6213/8
Manchester City v Newcastle United - 17:30
Despite their best efforts to prove me wrong, I continue to believe Manchester City will take this title race right down to the wire. And if they do, it's likely to be amid a flurry of goals. For not only do City have tremendous firepower up front (second highest scorers in the division) but they are also now conceding goals with alarming regularity. Four of the last five teams to go to the Etihad have managed to score there, and three of those teams managed to score at least twice. City are clearly having problems at the back, and so the only way for them to keep winning, is to keep on banging them in at the other end.
That defensive frailty should almost certainly be exposed by a Newcastle team who've scored in four of their last five away games. With his side midtable, and his management future up in the air, John Carver really doesn't have anything to lose. And for me that makes his Newcastle side dangerous opponents and a team to follow for goals from here on. But having themselves let-in more goals than any team outside the bottom four, Newcastle too look certainties to concede against a potent City.
Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.645/8
Tottenham Hotspur v West Ham United - 12:00
We could be in for a Sunday roast this lunchtime at White Hart Lane when free-scoring Spurs play host to the stuttering Hammers. Mauricio Pochettino's side have been scoring for fun since the turn of the year, netting 15 times in half a dozen outings. And that form in front of goal has paid huge dividends, with Spurs winning all but one of those games to catapult themselves up to sixth in the table. The only people happier than the Spurs manager though, should be 'overs' backers, who potentially would have made money in every one of those matches.
So Spurs are on a goalscoring roll. And they will like the look of what lies before them next - a West Ham side that's won none of its last five away games in the league. Last week's 4-0 cup loss at West Brom was a particularly dreadful result which suggests the Hammers will struggle to keep Spurs contained. Sam Allardyce's team though have averaged to score more than a goal a game on the road this season. So they should make an entertaining fist of this, especially when you consider Spurs have been sloppy at the back of late, conceding in four of their last five at home.
Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.824/5
Everton v Leicester City - 14:05
I've long been a fan of Roberto Martinez as a manager. But's it got to the point where it's becoming difficult to have any confidence in Everton getting results, even in games that look bankers on paper. In particular, Everton are being hurt by an inability to score goals. A 0-0 draw at home to Liverpool this month came hot on the heels of another goalless draw at home to West Brom. Throw in a 1-0 loss to Chelsea in their latest outing and you realise that what the Toffees are going through is more than just a sticky patch.
They'll be hoping of course to turn that form around against a Leicester side that's bottom of the table. That's easier said than done though. For starters, Everton haven't scored more than one goal in a league game since last year, having been involved in six low-scoring games on the bounce. So it seems unlikely they'll suddenly open the floodgates against a Leicester team that arrives battle-hardened off the back of road trips to Liverpool, Manchester United and Arsenal, where it should be noted they performed admirably in all three.
Under 2.5 Goals @ 1.855/6
2014/15 Season P/L