Dan Fitch is backing West Ham to claim a crucial three points at Norwich, but thinks that the hosts can get on the scoresheet...
"West Ham have conceded in each of their last 15 appearances."
Norwich [3.7] v West Ham [2.12]; The Draw [3.7]
Saturday 11 July, 12:30
Live on BT Sport 1
Norwich set out on mission impossible
Nothing less than a victory will do for Norwich when they host West Ham on Saturday.
Norwich are bottom of the Premier League and ten points from safety. With four games of the season remaining, they need to take maximum points to have any chance of staying up.
As those four games include trips to Chelsea and Manchester City, it seems fair to say that a miraculous recovery is unlikely to come. The Canaries have lost each of their last six games and failed to score in five of them.
Daniel Farke has had dreadful luck with injuries this season and that situation has still not improved. Sam Byram, Grant Hanley, Christoph Zimmermann, Moritz Leitner and Todd Cantwell are all injured.
This looks like West Ham's most winnable game
For West Ham the situation is more comfortable, though not without potential peril. Currently 16th in the Premier League, the Hammers are four points clear of the relegation zone.
A shock win over Chelsea and a valuable away point at Newcastle have given West Ham that cushion, but they were brought back down to earth in midweek, as Burnley beat them 1-0 at the London Stadium. The match against Norwich is likely to be the easiest of West Ham's remaining fixtures and it's vital that they claim victory.
With this game kicking off the weekend action, a win would put a lot of pressure on the sides below West Ham, while elevating them to a relatively safe points total of 34. Following this match, West Ham have games with two more of the teams below them - Watford and Aston Villa - with a trip to Manchester United sandwiched in-between.
David Moyes has two players unavailable with injury. Felipe Anderson and Robert Snodgrass are both out.
Decent price for away win
West Ham are the [2.12] favourites, with a Norwich win at [3.7] and the draw at [3.8].
Norwich's form is so bad, that this looks like a decent price for West Ham. The Londoners have shown some fight since the season resumed, which is more than you can say for some of the other clubs fighting against relegation.
It should be said though, that West Ham's position in the table is a mark of their unpredictability. You may be looking for a bigger price for an away win and there are alternatives.
Canaries can score rare goal
Norwich's goal in their 2-1 win at Watford on Wednesday was their first after a run of five blanks. This might not seem much of a basis for predicting that there will be goals in this match, but West Ham have conceded in each of their last 15 appearances.
Both teams to score is [1.71], with over 2.5 goals at [1.86]. A West Ham win and over 2.5 goals is [3.1], while an away victory and both teams to score is [4.0].
Hammers heroes can be backed at big odds
West Ham's results against Chelsea and Newcastle could ultimately keep them safe and the scorers of the goals in those matches, are both available at tempting prices.
Michail Antonio is [3.2] and has been used as a central striker in recent weeks. At an even bigger price is Tomas Soucek at [5.0]. The Czech midfielder has scored two goals in West Ham's last three games and no one that's looked at his career statistics will be surprised. Soucek scored 18 goals for Slavia Prague last season and added another twelve this season, before joining West Ham in January.
Dan Fitch 2019/20 Season P/L
Staked: 743.00 pts
Returned: 729.04 pts
P/L: -13.96 pts
Back West Ham to beat Norwich and both teams to score at [4.0]
Back Antonio to score for West Ham against Norwich at [3.2]