There's been a pattern of Spurs winning games like this by the single goal and that trend may just continue here, says Jamie Pacheco...
"But if we turn our attentions to the Sportsbook, we can see that you can get 13/5 about Spurs winning by exactly one goal and that one might be worth a punt."
Norwich v Tottenham
Saturday December 28, 17:30
Live on Sky Sports Main Event
Desperate times for the Canaries
These are tough times for Norwich. Odds of 1.162/13 to be relegated tell you everything you need to know and one of the big clues as to the reason why they are where they are in the table- bottom- is in the goals-against column. The 38 they've conceded is more than anyone else in the division.
And things are unlikely to get much better over the next three weeks. They play Tottenham twice in the league (starting here) and Manchester United away, though they do also have back-to-back home fixtures coming up, including this one.
At least they've been quite fortunate with injuries and suspensions. They should have pretty much everyone available.
All very un-Mourinho like
It's not much fun trying to predict what Spurs might do next. They've been entertaining enough since Jose Mourinho arrived but they haven't exactly been consistent.
They will have been pleased enough with beating Wolves away but if a loss at Old Trafford would have annoyed Mourinho, then an abject home defeat to his old club Chelsea, managed by former pupil Frank Lampard, will really have irked him.
It's difficult to understand why they keep on conceding. Mourinho teams generally keep quite a few clean sheets and there's no shortage of quality among Spurs' defenders. Maybe they're just missing Hugo Lloris.
Spurs too inconsistent for that price
Spurs are 1.738/11 and that's pretty much what you'd expect. When they played each other back in the 2015-16 season, Spurs won 3-0 both home and away so some of the players left from those wins will be feeling quietly confident.
But it's not a price to recommend with those problems in that Spurs defence. So far the Canaries have beaten Man City at home and drawn with Arsenal at Carrow Road so maybe they're better suited to causing upsets against the bigger teams than winning matches against teams close to them in the table.
It's 4.216/5 the draw and 5.24/1 the home win.
But if we turn our attentions to the Sportsbook, we can see that you can get 13/5 about Spurs winning by exactly one goal and that one might be worth a punt. Bar a comprehensive 5-0 win over Burnley, all Spurs' wins in the league since Mourinho arrived were by the single goal. There were 3-2 wins over Bournemouth and West Ham and 2-1 wins over Wolves and Brighton. You get the feeling that if Spurs go a goal up with 20 to go, then it's more a case of shutting up shop and seeing out the game than going for another goal and that's a pretty fair price given those stats.
'Overs' likely but no value
Unsurprisingly, the layers have cottoned on to the fact that Spurs may well be an 'overs' side for the next few months. Only one of their last nine games went 'unders'; that 2-0 home defeat to Chelsea.
They'll almost always score. That match was the only time they didn't score in their last nine so if you keep backing overs you'll probably keep on winning. But winning bets and value bets are two very different things.
It's 1.645/8 that this one has at least three goals and 2.56/4 that it doesn't so we'll leave this sensibly-priced market well alone.
Of the Spurs players, Dele Alli probably makes the most appeal at 17/10 to get a goal here. He's been the player whose fortunes have changed the most since the former Chelsea manager arrived and got an excellent one at home to Brighton on Boxing Day,
Harry Kane will have his backers of course but 4/6 looks a little on the short side and the same can be said about the 13/8 on Lucas Moura.
If you're going to take the view that the Canaries will get at least one, then there are two obvious places to start. Teemu Pukki's goals have dried up somewhat but he's still the man they all try to provide service to and nine goals for the season is an excellent effort for a player at a newly-promoted side. But he's just 6/5 and unfortunately we have to swerve him on price, as well.
The other one you should be looking at is Todd Cantwell. He has five for the season and is considerably bigger at 7/2. He scored against all of Manchester City, Chelsea and Arsenal so maybe he's a man or the big occasions.
JAMIE'S 2019/20 PREMIER LEAGUE P/L
Points Staked: 29.5
Points Returned: 36.1
P&L: +6.6 pts