Norwich v Man Utd
Saturday 7th May, 12:45
Live on BT Sport 1
It may not be possible for the Canaries to be officially relegated this weekend, but defeat here and subsequent positive results for the North East duo later in the day would all but condemn Alex Neil's men to Championship football next season.
Norwich welcome Manchester United to Carrow Road on the back of three straight Premier League defeats without scoring. Finding the back of the net has been the downfall of Norwich this season - only two sides have scored fewer Premier League goals - and it looks as though those problems are resurfacing at the pivotal juncture of the campaign.
Winnable games against Watford and then Everton follow this one, but if the gap widens this weekend then one has to assume that the Canaries will be joining Aston Villa in English football's second tier next season.
United can move to within one point of fourth place Manchester City with a win here, and with the Citizens hosting Arsenal on Sunday, on the back of the disappointment of losing their Champions League semi-final in midweek, Louis Van Gaal's men will feel that they have a very realistic chance of finishing in the top four.
The question is, would a top four finish and possible FA Cup triumph quantify a successful season for Manchester United? A Manchester United in transition. Would it be enough to keep Van Gaal in a job at Old Trafford? Or is Jose Mourinho set to take over at the Theatre of Dreams regardless?
One thing is certain, and that is the Dutchman would love to see his side secure a top-four finish so that he can give a big two fingers to the English press that have hounded and slated him throughout this season. If he's on his way out then he would love to depart with the last laugh.
Champions Leicester halted a run of four straight wins for Manchester United last Sunday when a 1-1 draw ultimately secured the title for the Foxes. While there were bones to pick from United's performance, there were also plenty of positives and signs that, although not exciting to watch, the Red Devils are now a coherent unit.
Defensively United have looked particularly solid in recent weeks, and a goal-shy Norwich could be found wanting. Odds of 1.9010/11 on an away win seems pretty generous to me and I'll be taking a large slice of that this Saturday lunchtime.
Over/Under 2.5 Goals
Seven of United's last eight Premier League games have had two goals or fewer, while five of Norwich's last seven have gone the same way.
My general rule of thumb is that if either team are struggling to score goals then Under 2.5 goals is the default play. When it's two goal-shy teams and one solid defence, as we have this weekend, then that selection becomes a no-brainer at odds of 1.9420/21.
Match Odds and Over/Under 2.5 Goals
I'm kind of putting all my eggs in one basket here, but I'm convinced that this will be a low-scoring victory for United, so I'm going to take some of the 4.216/5 available on Man Utd/Under2.5 Goals in this market. Which essentially equates to Van Gaal's men winning 1-0 or 2-0.
3pts Back Man Utd to win @ 1.9010/11
3pts Back Under 2.5 Goals @ 1.9420/21
1pt Back Man Utd/Under 2.5 Goals @ 4.216/5