Newcastle v West Ham
Sunday 5 July, 14:15
Live on Sky Sports
Newcastle are coming off their most comprehensive display of the season after Wednesday's 4-1 win at Bournemouth and this is another chance to have a big say in the relegation battle.
Before the demolition of Bournemouth, their best performance on the road was the 3-2 win at West Ham in the reverse fixture on November 2.
Dwight Gayle scored the opener on Wednesday after being handed a start by Steve Bruce and the recently returned Sean Longstaff grabbed the second goal. The other scorers were Miguel Almiron and sub Valentino Lazaro.
West Ham are also in buoyant mood after Wednesday's 3-2 home win over Chelsea, which lifted them to 16th and put them three points clear of the drop zone.
The high-scoring win was quite an achievement considering the lack of forward options for David Moyes with main striker Sebastien Haller on the sidelines.
Michail Antonio led the line superbly, scoring the second goal, and fit-again Andriy Yarmolenko hit the winner, which was another hopeful sign of better to come on the run-in.
Mark Noble was omitted on Wednesday with a hamstring niggle, replaced in midfield by Manuel Lanzini, but could be available here.
Chance for road improvement
Newcastle have lost just four out of 18 in all competitions in 2020 and only Manchester City and Leicester have beaten them at St James' Park since the turn of the year (the only other teams to win there this season are Arsenal and Everton).
Just three defeats out of 16 at home in the Premier League is evidence of an admirable solidity under Bruce but, just as with previous boss Rafael Benitez, they have struggled with a lack of creativity that has made them heavily reliant on keeping a clean sheet.
There are signs of a positive change with the Bournemouth win and a 3-0 home victory over Sheffield United since the restart, but overall the attackers have not scored enough at home, averaging just a goal per game. Only Crystal Palace have scored fewer home goals than Bruce's side.
That poor scoring rate leaves the Magpies vulnerable to a counter punch and they have won only two out of nine at St James' Park when they have conceded (W2 D4 L3). Their low win rate is reflected in odds of 2.829/5 for a home win.
West Ham's away record is W3 D3 L10 but they have deteriorated on the road under Moyes, losing on all six trips in the Premier League since he took charge in late December.
The Hammers have failed to score in four of those six matches and the only mitigating factor is that Moyes has had a tough run of away fixtures, all against top-half teams.
On paper this is their easiest away game under Moyes and they have a reasonable chance based on their away record of W2 D3 L0 against teams in the bottom eight. They have scored in four of those five games, which is a positive against low-scoring Newcastle.
The boost for West Ham of beating Chelsea clearly ranks better than Newcastle's win over Bournemouth and the visitors are the pick off 0 on the Asian handicap at 21/1.
Renewed goal threat
The two sides have the same low-scoring pattern, pointing towards under 2.5 goals at 1.875/6.
Newcastle have had 10 out of 16 (62%) under 2.5 goals at home and West Ham's figures are identical on the road. Under Moyes, four out of six (67%) away games have been unders.
Given the renewed goal threat both teams showed on Wednesday, however, the best goals bet might be both teams to score at 1.84/5.
West Ham have lost their last seven away Premier League matches; the Hammers haven't lost eight in a row on the road since December 2006. Newcastle are 2.829/5 to inflict another defeat.