Newcastle v Everton: Hosts are not for beating at home

Newcastle manager - Steve Bruce
Newcastle have been very good in front of their own fans under Bruce

There were contrasting fortunes for Newcastle and Everton on Boxing Day, but Paul Robinson thinks that they will both come away from this game with a point.

In addition to all of that, Everton have only won once on the road this year, and that came against a then struggling, Southampton.

Back The Draw @ 3.55/2

Newcastle v Everton
Saturday December 28, 15:00

Newcastle on a roll at St James'

The Magpies were in dreamland when they went 1-0 up at Old Trafford on Thursday as they set themselves up for their fourth victory in five games. It didn't last long though, as Anthony Martial inspired United to a 4-1 comeback win.

Steve Bruce will be hoping that his players can shrug that defeat off for this fixture, as they aim to extend their unbeaten run at home to nine games.

Jonjo Shelvey and Andy Carroll were on the bench on Boxing Day, but it is likely that they will return XI against the Toffees.

A new dawn for Everton

Carlo Anceloitti continued the good work that Duncan Ferguson had done as interim Everton manager, as the Italian saw his side beat Burnley in his first game in charge.

It wasn't the flashiest of performances from the Toffees, but that doesn't matter, and Sean Dyche's men aren't an easy team to roll over.

Aside from a penalty shootout defeat to Leicester - which was a draw after 90 minutes - Everton haven't been beaten since Marco Silva left the club, although they have had the benefit of playing four of the five at Goodison.

Wrong favourites in the Match Odds

The visitors are the favourites on the Betfair Exchange, as they are trading at around the 2.245/4 mark, as of time of writing.

That is totally wrong, in my opinion, as only Arsenal have won here this term, and that was all the way back on the opening weekend of the season.

Since then, Newcastle have drawn four and won four, with three of those victories coming from November on-wards.

In addition to all of that, Everton have only won once on the road this year, and that came against a then struggling, Southampton.

Half a dozen of the other eight have seen them lose, and they have been conceding goals at an average of two per game.

That leaves two options to choose from - a home win at 3.65 or the draw at a marginally lower 3.55/2.

Given that all of those away defeats for Everton came under Silva, I think that the draw is the better of the two selections. That bet would already have landed four times at St James' this year, and it was the same outcome in Everton's only away match since Silva's departure.

Goal count a bit of a conundrum

If this was an Everton away game earlier in the campaign, you would have to have been seriously considering backing Over 2.5 Goals at 2.111/10 on the Betfair Exchange.

Enthusiasm for that bet is tempered by the fact that their last three in the league have had two goals or fewer, and that they kept two clean sheets during that period.

Newcastle opened up their season with five straight home games see Under 2.5 backers collect, and that outcome is the marginal favourite here at 1.865/6.

Latterly though, three of their last four here have gone Over 2.5, so I think the best course of action is to leave the goals alone, and just stick to the draw.

2019/20 P/L (1pt each bet)

Wagered: 35pts
Returned: 34.04pts
P/L: -0.96pts

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