Everton look to bounce back from last weekend's defeat when they travel to plucky Newcastle on Super Sunday. Mark O'Haire analyses the encounter.
"The duo have combined to see eight (66%) of their collective 12 tussles feature goals at both ends with the pair managing to keep their sheets clean just twice in that same sample"
Newcastle v Everton
Sunday November 1, 14:00
Newcastle pinch late point
Jacob Murphy's 89th-minute free-kick rescued a point for Newcastle last Sunday as the Toon earned at 1-1 draw against Wolves at Molineux. Murphy bent his low effort around the wall and just inside the post past goalkeeper Rui Patricio, just the shot on-target from the visitors as Steve Bruce's side avoided defeat for the fourth league game in six.
A heavy defeat to Manchester United last time out, combined with illness and injuries affecting his squad, saw Bruce make four changes to his starting line-up. Jonjo Shelvey's groin problem and an illness affecting Sean Longstaff resulted in a redrawn side with an attacking edge, and included Ryan Fraser making his first Premier League start for the club.
But for all their potential threat going forward, Newcastle worked hard without the ball for much of the match and Wolves' main threats came from long-range. Bruce was pleased with the outcome but admitted there's plenty of work still be done, saying: "We are trying to find a balance, it won't happen overnight but we are trying to change the way we play."
Everton fail to fire at St Mary's
The last remaining unbeaten record of the Premier League season was ended as league leaders Everton crashed to a 2-0 defeat against an impressive Southampton at St Mary's last Sunday. The Toffees went into the match with 13 points from their first five games but badly missed injured captain Seamus Coleman and suspended forward Richarlison.
Stand-in skipper Gylfi Sigurdsson struck the bar from 20 yards when the game was goalless, but the visitors struggled to seriously test keeper Alex McCarthy and finished the game with 10 men. Full-back Lucas Digne was shown a straight red card after a nasty challenge, leaving Carlo Ancelotti short in full-back positions ahead of this weekend's trip to Tyneside.
The Italian appreciated Everton failed to fire last time out but remained confident the Blues can bounce back. However, the Merseysiders head here with Ben Godfrey again expected to take up a makeshift right-back position with Fabian Delph potentially filling in on the opposite flank. Standout star James Rodriguez is also rated doubtful according to Ancelotti.
Toffees make no appeal at the prices
Newcastle have landed top honours just once in their past nine Premier League meetings with Everton (W1-D2-L6) and earned a solitary point against the Toffees last term. The Magpies were beaten 2-1 here last December by Everton and have picked up maximum points in just two of their previous seven St. James' Park outings against the Blues.
Newcastle 4.30100/30 have defied the early season data to sit seven points above the bottom-three in the early stages of the campaign. Only Crystal Palace have attempted fewer shots than the Toon with Steve Bruce's side converting an unsustainable 57% of their on-target attempts (eight goals from 14 shots on-target). No side has faced more shots on-target.
Everton 2.0421/20 enjoyed an excellent opening stanza (W4-D0-L0) but have since picked up an arguably undeserved point against Liverpool before their loss at Southampton. The Toffees may have slightly overperformed in the first four fixtures and Carlo Ancelotti's outfit now look bare in key areas as they seek a return to winning ways, and so make little appeal.
Both sides can oblige
The most recent four head-to-heads between Newcastle and Everton have paid out for Both Teams To Score backers and a repeat could be on the cards this Sunday at 1.748/11. The duo have combined to see eight (66%) of their collective 12 tussles feature goals at both ends with the pair managing to keep their sheets clean just twice in that same sample.
Newcastle have provided profit in this market in 55% of their home encounters in the Premier League during Steve Bruce's reign, whilst 62% of Carlo Ancelotti's contests as Everton supremo have followed suit - last weekend was only the fifth occasion the Toffees have failed to score in 26 matches under the Italian's watch.
However, the more appealling poke is to back the hosts in the Double Chance market alongside Newcastle to score Over 0.5 Goals at 2.05 with Everton's selection concerns stacking up.
Mark's 2020/21 Profit/Loss
Staked: 24.00 pts
Returned: 27.58 pts
P/L: +3.58 pts
Back Newcastle Double Chance and Newcastle to score Over 0.5 Goals at 2.05 in Newcastle v Everton