Premier League: Signs it's not over yet for Newcastle and Sunderland

St James' Park is still far from certain to be hosting Championship games in 2016/17
St James' Park is still far from certain to be hosting Championship games in 2016/17

Ending March in the bottom three doesn't doom Newcastle or Sunderland to the drop, explains Michael Lintorn...


"Six of the previous 11 sides to occupy 19th place at this stage of the campaign (55%) have clawed their way to safety, as opposed to a less impressive four of those in the seemingly more desirable climes of 18th (36%)."

When Aleksandar Mitrovic levelled late on to end Newcastle's six-match Tyne-Wear derby losing streak, it was debatable what had happened: did he revive his side's survival bid at their neighbours' expense, or merely confirm that the fixture will still exist next season in the Championship?

After all, it was a costly weekend not to win for both clubs. Norwich won at West Brom after ten games without success to leave both north-east forces in the drop zone, while Swansea's victory over Aston Villa puts them ten points clear of the bottom three.

The Canaries are the sole team within six points of either Tyne-Wear protagonist, suggesting that the best-case scenario is for one to stay up. The relegation odds even paint that as an optimistic outlook, with Sunderland and the Magpies both 1.4840/85 to go down, projecting a 68% likelihood of each falling into the Championship.

To ascertain whether the picture is as bleak as the odds project, Betting.Betfair compared the Premier League table at the end of March with the one at the close of the campaign in all of the past 12 seasons.

It is true that there aren't a huge number of precedents for two bottom-three dwellers escaping, with this only happening three times in that period but, more encouragingly, two getting out is as common as all three accepting their fate. Most importantly, at least one has retained their top-flight status in nine of the last 11 years, including each of the most recent five.

Anyone pondering an ambitious Aston Villa relegation lay at 1.011/100 should note that the club ending March in 20th recovered just twice in our sample spell: Leicester last term and Wigan in 2010/11.

However, there is a trend which, like the rivals' identical odds, indicates that Newcastle have as strong a shot at sticking around as the Black Cats despite having a point less and a goal difference seven strikes weaker. Indeed, it actually implies a greater chance of climbing to 17th or higher.

Six of the previous 11 sides to occupy 19th place at this stage of the campaign (55%) have clawed their way to safety, as opposed to a less impressive four of those in the seemingly more desirable climes of 18th (36%).

Click here to check out more of Betting.Betfair's Premier League coverage

Get a Free £/€20 Exchange Bet

  • Join Now - Open account using promo code VAL225
  • Bet - Place a £/€20 Bet on the Exchange
  • Earn We'll Refund You £/€20 If the Bet Loses

T&Cs apply.

Discover the latest articles

Read past articles