Premier League Tips

Both Newcastle and Southampton are closing in on securing their Premier League status although Cardiff's midweek win at Brighton means a few more points may still be required. Rafa Benitez's side have won four of their last eight matches to move up to 15th in the table. Newcastle have a seven-point cushion over third bottom Cardiff so are on the verge of safety.

The Magpies looked in trouble at the turn of the year but much-improved form since January has lifted them clear of the bottom three. A brilliant home win over champions Man City sparked their revival and United put together five successive wins at St James' Park prior to losing to Crystal Palace. Newcastle picked up an impressive 1-0 victory at in-form Leicester in their last match.

Saints climbing under Hasenhuttl

Southampton's top-flight status was in serious jeopardy earlier this season and the club were right to replace Mark Hughes with Ralph Hasenhuttl. The Austrian has made a major impact during his relatively short time at the club, guiding the Saints towards safety. Southampton, 16th, are five points clear of Cardiff with a game in hand.

Their current form is impressive with four wins in their last six matches. Liverpool and Manchester United are the only sides to beat them during this run and Southampton also claimed a notable home win over Tottenham. Nathan Redmond scored twice during the Saints' 3-1 win over Wolves at St Mary's last weekend as their revival continued under Hasenhuttl.

Southampton appeal to claim win

Newcastle are 2.588/5 favourites this weekend but this looks short enough against dangerous opponents. United have only won one of their last four matches and were beaten by Palace in their most recent home match. There is little temptation to back Newcastle at the odds against a side finishing the season with a flourish.

Southampton are 3.211/5 to pull off a second away win in a row and this appeals more than the hosts. The Saints have only lost one of their last nine league meetings against Newcastle and come into this match with real belief. Hasenhuttl has given his players renewed confidence and they should be supported, in some shape or form, this weekend.

The draw is 3.259/4 but has to be considered given Southampton have a league high nine this season. Many of these were earlier in the campaign though and none of their last eight fixtures have resulted in a draw. This season's first game between the sides ended goalless and two of the last three meetings have ended in a stalemate. On balance, Southampton look the best value option in their current form but backing them with draw no bet makes sense.

Goals likely in latest Saints match

There have been plenty of goals in Southampton's recent matches with 13 of the last 14 seeing at least two scored. Using Betfair's Same Game Multi option, you can combine bets to boost the odds. Backing Southampton to avoid defeat, in the double chance market, along with over 1.5 goals enhances the price to a tempting 2.28.

Opta Stat

70% of Newcastle's ten Premier League victories this season have been by a one-goal margin - only Brighton have won a higher percentage of their Premier League games by one goal this term. The hosts are 3/1 to win by a single goal again this weekend.

Follow Simon's bets on Twitter @watfordtipster

Simon's Premier League 2018-19 P/L

Staked: 34pts
Return: 40.6pts
P/L: +6.6pts

Bet 5 Get 5 on Bet Builders

You can get a £5 Free Bet when you place a £5 Bet Builder on selected Football matches this season. Keep an eye on the Betfair site for more info. T&Cs apply.