Sergio Aguero 5.04/1
To get the negatives out of the way first, Aguero missed out to Harry Kane last season and has only actually concluded one of his dozen completed campaigns in club football across Argentina, Spain and England as his division's top goalscorer, doing that two years ago for Manchester City. However, he is the Premier League's most dependable net-finder, finishing first in 2014/15, being denied by a single strike last time out and placing in the top four in four of his five attempts as a Citizen. The Pep Guardiola factor should help too, as in three of the Catalan coach's past six terms, won of his forwards was his league's leading marksmen. Two of the exceptions missed out by just two goals.
Harry Kane 8.415/2
2015/16's most prolific frontman is hindered not merely by memories of a miserable summer, failing to fire in his final two Tottenham appearances or any of his four England Euro 2016 outings, and the suspicion that he is at risk of burnout after 66 league games without a day off, but also by the weight of history: only once in the past decade has somebody topped the charts in successive seasons. Yet he has defied the trends once before, becoming the first British winner in 16 years, and has netted 21 times or more in both Premier League campaigns in which he has played over half the matches so, if he does steer clear of injuries again, he is unquestionably a contender.
Zlatan Ibrahimovic 10.09/1
Nobody in the Premier League rivals Ibrahimovic's top goalscorer pedigree. He twice led the way in Serie A, as a representative of two different clubs, before emerging as Ligue 1's main man in three of his four years at Paris St-Germain. It took him five tries to master Serie A though - admittedly in his one prior season alongside Jose Mourinho at Inter - and the precedents hint that over 12 months will be required to reach the English top tier's summit. No foreign player has ever ascended to first place in their debut Premier League term. Surprisingly, Manchester United have supplied just five victors in 24 years - two of them tied - despite being crowned champions 13 times in that period.
Romelu Lukaku 15.5
Consistency is Lukaku's best friend, having been in the top 20 in all four of his seasons as a Premier League regular - Aguero and Olivier Giroud are that timeframe's only other ever-presents - and ninth or higher in three of those, rendering him a great bet to be one of the top four. Yet his biggest total in a single campaign remains 18, which hasn't been enough to be top goalscorer at any point this century, while much also depends on whether he moves in this transfer window. Everton have never provided the winner in the Premier League era, and every man to triumph from 2000/01 onwards has done so under the employment of one of the Big Six.
Jamie Vardy 18.5
That Big Six domination pattern suggests that Vardy's challenge was compromised by his decision to resist Arsenal's interest. The deck is stacked against the Leicester forward anyway as he presumably needs both himself and his colleagues to at the very least maintain the career-finest standard set last term - and even that wasn't enough for top spot in the goals charts. His 24 efforts in 2015/16 was one fewer than he managed in his three prior seasons at League Two or higher level combined, and other recent lower-league attackers done good cooled rapidly after peaking. Rickie Lambert went from 15 and 13 to two and one, DJ Campbell from 13 to one and Grant Holt from 15 to nine more ever.
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