Manchester City v Stoke: Take value punts in game with little to bank on

Jaymes Monte
21 April 2016

Manuel Pellegrini, understandably, already has one eye on the Champions League semi-finals.

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The Citizens may have one eye on their Champions League semi-final, but must retina focus on their Premier League campaign to ensure that they are competing with Europe's elite next season...

"At odds of 12.011/1 I’m willing to part with a few quid and take a chance on the Potters regrouping after a poor couple of performances..."

Back Stoke to win @ 12.011/1

Man City v Stoke
Saturday April 23, 12:45
Live on BT Sport 1

Man City

The midweek draw with Newcastle was an indication that Manuel Pellegrini's men are already looking towards their Champions League semi-final tie with Real Madrid. For the manager that's understandable as his legacy will obviously depend significantly on how the Citizens fare in this season's Champions League. However, if the players want to ensure they are playing in the same competition next season, then they must get back on track domestically and start taking three points from games such as this.

Manchester United's midweek win puts them just two points behind City, meaning the Citizens could be out of the top four by the time they play their next Premier League fixture if they don't win here.

At St James' Park on Tuesday City were a touch off the pace. And to me, this side just isn't as cohesive and effective when they're not playing at 100%. Their style of football needs to be played at full throttle in order to produce the goods. If there's any sort of hesitation, subconsciously or otherwise, then it just doesn't work as well.

Stoke

The Potters have also looked a little off the pace in recent weeks with heavy defeats at Liverpool and at home to Spurs giving off the whiff of a side already thinking about their summer plans.

It's a slightly understandable mindset, with a top-half finish looking secure thus marking a relatively successful campaign. But they, like many others in the Premier League, must be looking at Leicester's achievements this season with a mix of envy and admiration. If Leicester can challenge for the title, then is there any reason why a side like Stoke can't at least push for a top-four finish next season?

I mention this because I feel that Leicester's title challenge actually began around this time last season, and if Stoke have ambitions of building on what they have achieved this season then meandering towards the end of the campaign is not the most conducive way of doing going about it.

Match Odds

Given the way that City played on Tuesday night at Newcastle, I'm not overly enamoured about the idea of backing them here at odds of 1.331/3. Neither could I get too excited about laying the hosts against a Stoke side that have looked disinterested in recent weeks. At odds of 12.011/1, however, I'm willing to part with a few quid and take a chance on the Potters regrouping after a poor couple of performances and making it back-to-back wins at the Etihad Stadium whilst also completing the season double over the Citizens.

Over/Under 2.5 Goals

Both of Stoke's recent wins against Manchester City have been victories to nil, and five of the last six meetings between the two clubs have featured fewer than 2.5 goals.

Therefore, with Under 2.5 Goals available to back at odds of 2.447/5 it looks an absolute no-brainer to side with this one being a low-scoring game, regardless of the end-of-season nature of the match.

Correct Score

In keeping with my speculative punt on the Match Odds market, I'm going to have a couple of small stakes plays on the Correct Score market that each look to be good value bets and could well trade a lot shorter In-Play.

Stoke won 1-0 here last season and can be backed at odds of 34.033/1 to repeat the feat this time around, while the game at the Britannia earlier in the season ended 2-0 and that scoreline is a huge 100.099/1 this Saturday. Yes, they're speculative punts, but in a match where little can be backed with confidence, I'd rather chuck a few quid at a couple of long-shots such as these.

Recommended Bets

1pt Back Stoke to win @ 12.011/1
2pts Back Under 2.5 Goals @ 2.447/5
0.5pts Back 0-1 Correct Score @ 34.033/1
0.5pts Back 0-2 Correct Score @ 100.099/1