Man City v Newcastle: Hosts to edge it thanks to Aguero

Aguero will want to sharpen up ahead of Barcelona
Aguero will want to sharpen up ahead of Barcelona
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The Barclays Premier League returns to our screens this weekend and Paul Robinson is tipping a low-scoring contest when Man City take on Newcastle...

"The last four fixtures at The Etihad have seen Under 2.5 backers collect, as have three of Newcastle’s last four on the road."

Back Under 2.5 Goals @ 2.588/5

Man City v Newcastle  
Saturday February 21, 17:30 GMT
Live on Sky Sports 1

They may have got back on track last time out at Stoke but in all likelihood the bird has already flown when it comes to Man City retaining their Premier League title.

After dropping nine points in four matches, The Citizens are now seven adrift of Chelsea and even if Jose Mourinho's side drop that many points between now and the end of the campaign, I very much doubt that City will win all of their games.

He won't admit it publically, but Manuel Pellegrini's focus will surely be on the midweek Champions League clash against Barcelona, so while I expect him to field a strong XI, I wouldn't be surprised if Sergio Aguero and David Silva are withdrawn well before the end.

Opponents, Newcastle, come into the game unbeaten in three outings having won 3-0 at Hull and drawn 1-1 with both Stoke and Crystal Palace. John Carver is in charge until at least the end of the season and he is a steady hand that will keep them floating around in mid-table.

Previewing matches involving The Magpies can often be a tricky task as they are liable to either be fantastic or completely dire. However the recent signs  are that they won't be blown away and give up in games under Carver, so while I doubt that they'll take anything from their trip to Manchester, I can't see them being blown away.

Match Odds    
Man City 1.330/100 Newcastle 12.011/1 The Draw 6.411/2

The odds are as you'd expect. The hosts are the heavy favourites and while layers will be licking their lips at that price given their failures against Arsenal, Middlesbrough and Hull, I wouldn't want to oppose them.

I wouldn't want to back City either though as I'm not that kind of tipster and there is much better value to be had elsewhere.

Over/Under 2.5 Goals   
Over 2.5 Goals 1.625/8 Under 2.5 Goals 2.588/5

I am quite keen on getting involved in this market as Over 2.5 goals is far from the certainty that the odds suggest. The last four fixtures at The Etihad have seen Under 2.5 backers collect, as have three of Newcastle's last four on the road.

Recent history is also a good indicator and the last four meetings between the pair have finished 2-0 either way, with one of those coming after extra time when the game was deadlocked at 0-0 at the 90 minute mark.

First Goalscorer   

He hasn't been as prolific as usual since his return from injury but you can't look past Sergio Aguero when it comes to first goalscorer. The Argentine netted twice - including the opener - at the Britannia 10 days ago and he is the designated penalty taker as well.

Cash Out   

As I mentioned earlier, 2-0 has been a very popular scoreline between these two in the last year or so and I'm quite keen on a repeat. Even if doesn't quite finish 2-0, I can't see Newcastle scoring and with City struggling for goals at home, it should trade much shorter in-running.

Recommended Bets
Back Under 2.5 Goals @ 2.588/5 
Back Sergio Aguero to score first @ 4.67/2   

Best Cash Out
Back Man City to win 2-0 @ 7.613/2  

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