Borussia Monchengladbach just beat Bayern Munich, and should follow up by avoiding defeat at the Etihad Stadium, says Michael Lintorn...
"Man City have suffered three Etihad Stadium defeats in ten in all competitions since September and their Champions League figures are even worse: four in seven compared to just two wins."
Man City 1.715/7 v Borussia Monchengladbach 5.39/2; The Draw 4.3100/30
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This is not a great moment for Manchester City, who have lost as many of their last ten Premier League games as they have won (four), collecting the same points as West Brom (14) in that period.
The situation is so surreal that for once the Champions League is preventing talk of crisis rather than fuelling it. Whereas their three Premier League comrades threaten to make group-stage exits, they were through with two matches to spare, albeit puncturing their chances of top spot with home and away defeats to Juventus.
Only victory over Borussia Monchengladbach will give them a shot at overtaking the Italian champions, though they must achieve it without Vincent Kompany, Pablo Zabaleta, Fernando and Samir Nasri, as well as possibly Yaya Toure and Sergio Aguero too.
Were it not for a crazy little thing called Leicester being top of the Premier League, and perhaps Angers and Caen's emergence as the main competition for Paris St-Germain in Ligue 1, Borussia Monchengladbach would surely be the story of this season.
One of their best ever coaches, Lucien Favre - who twice led them into the top four - resigned after losing the first five Bundesliga encounters and the Champions League opener, and yet expectations have been obliterated by his replacement Andre Schubert, who was initially an interim appointment.
They have won eight and drawn two of his ten league outings, most recently sabotaging Bayern Munich's unbeaten domestic start, to charge from the very bottom in 18th to third and have also climbed past Sevilla in Group D.
Man City won the reverse fixture 2-1, but it certainly wasn't a commanding triumph: they trailed, Joe Hart saved a penalty and they didn't lead until the clock read 89:49. Given how much more momentum their opponents have now than they did then, the Citizens look a very appealing lay at 1.728/11.
Manuel Pellegrini's men have suffered three Etihad Stadium defeats in ten in all competitions since September and their Champions League figures are even worse: four in seven compared to just two wins.
Combine that with Borussia Monchengladbach going 12 games without a loss since the previous clash, prevailing in eight of those and taking down four of their Bundesliga top-six companions in the process (Wolfsburg, Schalke, Hertha Berlin and Bayern Munich) and the case becomes stronger still.
They have claimed at least a point from each of their past three Champions League matches, holding the otherwise faultless Juventus twice and firing four times past Sevilla. There is no option to slack off either as winning is the sole way to guarantee beating the Spaniards to the Europa League place.
Match Odds and Both Teams to Score
With Borussia Monchengladbach netting 17 times in six road trips under Schubert and striking ten times in their last three contests at all venues, they should have no trouble notching at the Etihad Stadium, where Man City have competed ten times since last keeping a clean sheet.
Twelve of their latest 13 Champions League home collisions involved both sides scoring and that is unsurprisingly well fancied at 1.618/13.
Meatier odds are offered if you partner it with the outcome and, given the aforementioned pro-Borussia Monchengladbach trends and the hosts going 20 games in front of their fans without a draw, the blend of away win and both teams to score leaps out at 8.27/1. It has yielded a profit in three of Man City's past five Champions League showdowns at the Etihad.
Lay Man City to win @ 1.728/11