It looks like only nerves can stop Manchester City from winning the title but their talent should get them through Sunday's test against West Ham, says Joe Dyer...
"City have been near unbeatable at home with 62 goals scored in 16 home wins (from 18 matches) and just 13 conceded."
Manchester City v West Ham
Sunday May 11,
Live on Sky Sports 1
A win on Wednesday has all but delivered a second Premier League title to the Etihad and a defeat of West Ham on Sunday guarantees the trophy will be lifted by Vincent Kompany and co. We all know City's strengths this season - the league's high scorers, they have been near unbeatable at home with 62 goals scored in 16 home wins (from 18 matches) and just 13 conceded. City are a slightly better balanced team compared to title challengers Liverpool and ultimately the Anfield side's poor defence just doesn't look good enough to win them the title.
Striker Sergio Aguero is again injured and looks likely to miss this game, along with Jesus Navas. Apart from those two, Pellegrini has a near full squad to pick from.
A poor season comes to a close on Sunday with the Hammers extremely likely to taste defeat for the 23rd time in all competitions to finish in lower-midtable. Last Saturday's defeat of Spurs was the Hammers' first victory in five and gives them a perfect record of three wins from three meetings with their hated rivals this campaign, which will be the highlight of the east London side's season.
Beyond that though and there has been little to smile about. Manager Sam Allardyce is widely disliked by the Hammers faithful and may never get the fans onside before his time comes to an end with the Claret and Blues.
Allardyce does have his first choice XI available to him for the final day clash.
Match Odds/Correct Score
Aston Villa proved obdurate opponents for nearly three-quarters of Wednesday night's match and the crowd were becoming nervous before City ultimately made it look easy. Faced with another must-win game the market is convinced of their supremacy making the home side 1.192/11 for the three points with West Ham an enormous 18.017/1 and the draw - which would surely still be enough to win City the title - is available to back at 9.08/1.
In my preview of Wednesday night's game I swerved the match odds and Asian Handicap in favour of the Correct Score market, making two recommendations including 3-0, so Yaya Toure's 92nd minute goal - City's fourth - was a sickener. Thanks then to Betfair for the Cash Out/lay options which allow us to make a winning bet even when we don't strike a 'winner'.
With the odds so heavily in favour of the home win our choices for this game are remarkably similar to Wednesday night and my approach is the same. The Asian Handicap has City at odds-on giving West Ham a two goal headstart, and I'd far rather back scorelines incorporating that sort of decisive final score at much bigger prices.
City, who Opta tell us have won more points at home than any other Premier League team this season, average more than three goals per home match. West Ham have been on a poor run but haven't been destroyed in recent games and are a better side than Villa defensively so, once again, 3-0 @ 8.615/2 and 3-1 @ 12.5 look solid picks.
Just don't forget to Cash Out or lay stakes if you get the chance.
Back City to win 3-0 @ 8.615/2 and 3-1 @ 12.5 with the option of Cashing Out or laying stakes