Manchester City v Bournemouth: Follow the stats for Etihad value
Manchester City look set for another home win when they entertain Bournemouth on Saturday - Andy Schooler finds the best way of getting a decent price about the hosts.
"You can get 10/11 about City winning both halves – something they’ve managed in six of their seven home games in the league this season."
Manchester City v Bournemouth
City's winning streak snapped
City's eight-game winning run was halted in midweek by Lyon, a side Pep Guardiola subsequently described as "one of the toughest teams I've ever faced".
Still, they have only lost once all season (that to Lyon in the reverse fixture back in September) and it's difficult see Bournemouth being talked about in such glowing terms after this game, even if the eighth-placed Cherries have surpassed expectations so far.
Home comforts - and then some
City have been ruthless at home in the Premier League with all seven games won so far, six of them by a margin of at least two goals. Those results in full are:
3-1 Man Utd
They have resulted in the following stats, some of which I'll come back to later:
Won: 7 of 7
Won by 2 or more: 6 of 7
Scored 3 or more: 5 of 7
Scored 5 or more: 3 of 7
Conceded: 4 of 7
Won to nil: 3 of 7
Won both halves: 6 of 7
Scored in both halves: 7 of 7
Over 2.5 goals: 6 of 7
Over 3.5 goals: 4 of 7
As with all Premier League games this weekend, it is worth noting what is coming up for each side as there's a full league programme in midweek. In City's case, that brings a trip to Watford. After a hard game in Lyon and with a tougher-looking match than this coming up on Tuesday, expect Guardiola to tinker with his side, although the quality in his squad means he can introduce the likes of Bernardo Silva and Vincent Kompany here.
Defensive issues for Cherries
As for Bournemouth, they have a home game with Huddersfield looming on Tuesday and it's fair to say that might be a bigger priority for Eddie Howe right now.
The Cherries arrive here having lost three on the spin, having been edged out at home to Manchester United and Arsenal, results which sandwiched a defeat at Newcastle. Overall, they've won just once in their last five in the league and a strong start to the season seems to be fading.
Of particular concern for them ahead of a clash with a goal-laden side, is the fact they have shipped two or more goals in seven of their 13 games so far.
They now have to face City without midfield anchor man Jefferson Lerma, who has caught the eye this season for plenty more reasons than his outrageous own goal last week. He's out through suspension and will be sorely missed.
Hard to see a shock
Bournemouth are out at [28.0] to win this game and while they do have goals in them - recent England debutant Callum Wilson leading the way with six - that leaky defence is a major worry against a team as good as City are in attack.
The hosts are just [1.13] with the draw available at [11.5]. As is often the case with City at home, it's hard to get excited about that win-draw-win market.
City reshaping goals lines
The same can be said of the over/under 2.5 goals market where over is just [1.27] and under [4.3]. Such is City's strength going forward, that the more relevant line with them is 3.5 goals but even here the overs is still odds-on at [1.72], although anyone thinking this is how to eke out the value should note the above stat that only four of those seven games at the Etihad have come good on this front.
It is another of the aforementioned stats which does, however, offer a good way of turning a 1/9 City win into something close to even money.
10/11 not half bad
You can get 10/11 about City winning both halves - something they've managed in six of their seven home games in the league this season, Newcastle being the only team to stop them.
Across the season as a whole - all competitions, home and away - City have won both halves in 15 of 21 games.
Now they face a side which ships plenty of goals and one which isn't in great form.
All of that makes 10/11 looks good value indeed, with the one negative being that looming midweek game, one which could see them ease off in the second half, as seemed to be the case at West Ham last week.
On that occasion, City still won both halves and with Guardiola making his displeasure at certain aspects well known afterwards (this despite a final scoreline of 4-0), City should still be pushing even if they aren't quite at full pelt.
Same Game Multi
There's a bookings angle I like on this match and this looks a good way to approach it.
Nicolas Otamendi could easily get a run-out and it's notable that he's been booked in three of his five appearances against Bournemouth. With the lively Ryan Fraser and Callum Wilson to deal with, this game could well see another card if he does indeed start.
Visiting right-back Simon Francis could also find his way into the notebook given he's likely to be up against Leroy Sane, whose form is making the decision to leave him out of the early-season team look pretty silly right now.
The double of both men being carded is offered at 19.91.
Manchester City have won all six Premier League matches against Bournemouth, scoring 21 goals and conceding only two.
Andy Schooler's P/L 2018/19