Man City v Southampton
Saturday 2 November, 15:00
City host Southampton again, four days after a 3-1 home win in the Carabao Cup involving largely second-string line-ups.
That was a third consecutive home match with at least three goals from Pep Guardiola's side since the 2-0 defeat by Wolves that put them further behind leaders Liverpool in the Premier League table. The gap is six points after 10 games.
City have responded well to the Wolves setback, winning 2-0 at Crystal Palace in the league, followed by home wins over Atalanta (5-1), Aston Villa (3-0) and then Southampton.
Fernandinho is available after being ruled out of the midweek game through suspension and he could settle back into his usual holding midfield role now that defenders John Stones, Nicolas Otamendi and Bernard Mendy are fit again, which has eased the injury crisis at the back.
Gabriel Jesus has been preferred to Sergio Aguero up front in three of City's last four Premier League games.
Limited options for Hasenhuttl
This is the first proper chance for Southampton's principal players to atone for their humiliating 9-0 home defeat by Leicester in their last Premier League match, which left them third-bottom with just eight points from 10 games.
The playing and coaching staff decided to donate their wages for that matchday to charity and now they have the opportunity to try to put things right on the pitch, although this is one of the most difficult fixtures of the entire season.
Ralph Hasenhuttl has limited options to shake up the team, with most players having had some part in the Leicester defeat, but Alex McCarthy may well be preferred to Angus Gunn in goal and Kevin Danso could get a start in central defence.
Ryan Bertrand is serving a three-match suspension for his red card against Leicester and Pierre-Emile Hojbjerg looks set to fill in at left wing-back.
Danny Ings is likely to be the choice as lone striker.
City could go big again
City's home defeat against Wolves in early October was only their second at the Etihad since the start of last season and their record apart from their losses is 21 wins out of 22, which makes it clear that the only logical choice is a City win.
After that it comes down to what type of win that might be. Since the start of last season Guardiola's side have won all 11 home games against teams in the bottom eight (based on last season's final table or the current standings) by an aggregate of 44-4.
That is an average of exactly four goals scored per match and they have reached three or more in eight of the 11 games.
Clearly the markets are expecting an avalanche of goals and Southampton's defensive record does nothing to change that view. Even before the Leicester debacle they were in the top three for goals against and that defeat was the sixth time in 10 league matches where they had conceded at least two goals.
The bet that appeals for decent odds is City off -3 on the Asian handicap at 2.21.
The bet is a winner if City win by at least four goals and stakes are returned if their winning margin is exactly three goals (see this explainer on Asian handicap betting).
Based on City's 11 home games against teams in the bottom eight since the start of last season, the bet would have lost only three times. That indicates the downside is worth the risk, with a good chance of the upside paying off.
Market expects high score
There is a high probability of over 2.5 goals, with that having occurred in nine of City's 11 home games against teams in the bottom eight since the start of last season (the exceptions were both 2-0), but the odds are only 1.251/4 and backers will have to go into the over 4.5 goals bracket to find odds-against.
Over 4.5 has been the outcome in just four of those 11 home games, so it is not a safe bet, although the fact that the Saints have conceded at least twice in eight of their 11 matches against big-six teams under Hasenhuttl indicates that goals are on the cards.
Manchester City (32) are the highest scorers in the Premier League this season, while Southampton (25) have conceded the most in the competition so far, with the Citizens registering the biggest home win this season (8-0) and Saints suffering the biggest defeat (0-9). Any Other Home Win (with City scoring four or more) is available at 2.0811/10.