City should win again but fatigue, no fans and a spirited Burnley display should mean that we get less than four goals in the game, says Jamie Pacheco...
"61.5% of City’s home games have gone under 3.5 goals, as have 85% of Burnley’s away ones this season so it’s interesting to see ‘unders’ priced handsomely."
Manchester City v Burnley
Monday June 22, 20:00
Sky Sports Premier League
Trio impressed on Wednesday
It's a little hard to have a strong opinion on just how good City were, or weren't, against Arsenal. They were good but not brilliant when David Luiz gifted them the first goal before completing what must surely be one of the most miserable performances ever by a Premier League defender when in the second half he gave away a penalty and got sent off in the process. Being 2-0 up against 10 men for most of the second-half at home isn't exactly the best indication of where they're at.
But there were some obvious positives. Kevin de Bruyne ran the show, Kyle Walker looked extremely fit and keen on that right flank and Aymeric Laporte was composed and always in the right place after such a lengthy absence. It would be surprising if Sergio Aguero doesn't start this one after only coming on as a sub the other day.
Nothing wrong with Burnley's mid-table mediocrity
It must be a little hard being a Burnley fan. It's great being able to watch Premier League football week in week out when you're a club that's not exactly a giant of English football but when year after year you're not competing for Europe, nor are you trying to beat the drop, maybe things get just a tad dull!
But there's nothing wrong with mid-table mediocrity when it's the Premier League table that you're halfway up and we've seen how quickly you can get yourself in a mess if you fall out of this division as we've seen with the likes of Charlton, Sunderland or Blackpool in recent years.
They'll be the last side to play since the return of the Premier League, so they should certainly be fresher than City in this game.
Good reasons for City's short price
Man City are [1.15] and if that seems scandalously short, Opta remind us that they've won all five of their home games against Burnley under Pep Guardiola and that the Clarets have failed to win in any of their last 15 visits to Manchester City.
If you want a morsel of hope that the visitors can get anything from this match, it's also true that they're unbeaten in their last seven in the league so take the mammoth [10.0] that they can secure a stalemate.
You'll see worse bets than that this weekend but then again, this is just about the toughest task in English football, fans or no fans. So, we'll swerve this market.
Aguero looked pretty sharp when he came on the other day and should really have scored. His left-foot shot was well saved but led to Phil Foden's goal, City's third. It's highly likely he'll play from the beginning here and he has good reasons to want to. Nine appearances against Burnley have yielded nine goals and he's scored in each of his five home appearances against Sean Dyche's men so it would certainly be no surprise if he got another. Still, 2/5 is too short to score in a Premier League game whoever you are, and whatever scoring record you boast.
It will be interesting to see how Guardiola goes about picking the side. De Bruyne will surely play and has become a more attractive prospect on this market now that he's ben confirmed as being on penalty duty. But 6/4 is also a bit short so wait to get at least [3.0] on him on the Exchange when that market starts to see some action.
For something a bit more ambitious, you can get 9/1 on Laporte. He loves getting forward for set-pieces and scored three times last campaign so he may be worth a look.
Rule out the goal-glut
Even though they ended up winning comfortably, I think that game on Wednesday will have been very draining for City. And yes, they've had a four-day break since it but either Guardiola's players will be a bit tired, or he'll pick guys who aren't necessarily first-choice, in a bid to rotate his squad.
So I don't think City will score that many and I suspect Burnley won't score any at all.
61.5% of City's home games have gone under 3.5 goals, as have 85% of Burnley's away ones this season so it's interesting to see 'unders' priced handsomely. It can surely only be because this match has a history for goals. That's fair enough but with the enforced break and no fans these are very different circumstances, both of which in my view should lead to less goals. Let's hope so.
JAMIE'S 2019/20 PREMIER LEAGUE P /L
Points Staked: 43.5
Points Returned: 53.31
P&L: +10.81 pts
1 pt Back Under 3.5 goals @ [2.0]