FA Cup: Everything is not lost for Tottenham, Liverpool and Leicester

Michael Lintorn
11 January 2016

Jose Enrique's first Liverpool appearance since last January could yet have long-term significance

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Tottenham, Liverpool and Leicester won't look forward to a bonus FA Cup game on their schedule, but Michael Lintorn sees a positive...

"It is common to encounter at least one replay on the road to FA Cup glory – 15 of the past 24 victors were forced to face one or more of their foes twice, with the average replay rate being 0.92 per winner."

The four favourites to win the FA Cup all needed no longer than 90 minutes - well, 93 technically in Manchester United's case - to confirm their participation in the fourth round.

6.05/1 frontrunners Manchester City won 3-0 at Norwich, 6.611/2 hopefuls Chelsea saw off Scunthorpe 2-0, 6.86/1 holders Arsenal recovered from an early setback to defeat Sunderland 3-1 and 8.88/1 shots Man United eventually overcame Sheffield United by virtue of an injury-time Wayne Rooney penalty.

You would perhaps therefore conclude that the best of the rest are at an instant disadvantage, both because none of the single-digit challengers were wiped out and due to their own failures to progress at the first attempt. A severely weakened Liverpool 16.015/1 were held at Exeter, while Tottenham 19.5 and Leicester 36.035/1 agreed to do it all again at the King Power Stadium.

It was once the case that being taken to a third-round replay meant immediately ruling yourself out of FA Cup contention. For an entire decade between 1998/99 and 2007/08, no team who needed two opportunities to clear that phase of the competition went on to lift the trophy.

However, that trend has flipped around in the past seven years. Four different sides have gone the distance in that period and three of those met their third-round opponents twice en route to their maiden success of that timeframe.

Chelsea required two bites at Southend in 2008/09 after a shock 1-1 draw at Stamford Bridge, Man City started with a 2-2 draw against Leicester in 2010/11 in a parallel to hearten Spurs supporters and Wigan were frustrated 1-1 at home by then-League One club Bournemouth in 2012/13.

The fact that the trio doing the infuriating were all from lower divisions can possibly be viewed as a positive for Liverpool.

It is common to encounter at least one replay on the road to FA Cup glory - 15 of the past 24 victors were forced to face one or more of their foes twice, with the average replay rate being 0.92 per winner.

If you are likely to confront a replay at some point in the competition in order to reach Wembley, it is arguable that early January is the most logical time to do it as there is already fixture congestion at all levels and the fatigue is universal.

By contrast, the tiredness has built up even more by the spring and European tournaments resume then, so the elite are usually being made to play more often than the teams lining up against them at that stage of the season.

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