Liverpool's in-form hit man, Donetsk's goal drought and Bayern's 100% record in the competition feature in Jamie Pacheco's Tuesday night treble...
"But by the prices on offer, you’d think they were playing Bayer Leverkusen or Schalke here rather than Bayern Munich."
Hard to see us get four goals in Donetsk
Shakhtar Donetsk v Real Madrid
Live on BT Sport
One of the key elements to successful betting is deciding which stats to believe. Or to put it another way, which stats to give credence to and which to dismiss as less important. This match is a case in point.
Back in late October, Donetsk went to Madrid and beat them 3-2. At one stage they were 3-0 up before holding on to secure a famous win. Opta tell us that plenty of goals between the two sides is nothing new; three matches between them including that game a month or so ago have yielded 16 goals scored at an average of 5.3 goals a game. So over 3.5 goals at 20/23 it is then, right?
Maybe not. Because other stats paint a very different picture. Since that third goal in Madrid Donetsk have played three and scored none in the CL. Part of the reason for that is that they haven't been able to even hit the target that often. Of their last 23 shots in the Champions League, just six have made the keeper work. Further evidence that they're hardly the most prolific scorers is that in their last two league games- presumably at a level below the Champions League- they scored just twice, in a 1-1 draw and 1-0 away win.
So I think they'll do pretty well to get more than one here and are up against a Real side struggling to score themselves.
They were admittedly, pretty good in Milan against Inter last week (winning 2-0), though they did benefit from an Arturo Vidal first-half sending off.
Either side of that game they scored just one in each of the two games before that and just one in the one after it, a shock 1-2 loss to Alaves on Saturday. All in all, I just can't see where the big goals are coming from and under 3.5 goals is the selection at 19/20.
Bayern good for at least a point
Atletico Madrid v Bayern Munich
Live on BT Sport
Atletico Madrid are admittedly in excellent form. Another win at the weekend leaves them second in La Liga on goal difference and the even better news is that it's Real Sociedad and not the 'usual two' who are above them. Last weekend they were just about good value for their 1-0 win over Barcelona which is what's put some early pressure on the Catalans.
But by the prices on offer, you'd think they were playing Bayer Leverkusen or Schalke here rather than Bayern Munich.
Bayern are of course the reigning champions and have been ruthless this campaign once again. Four games, four wins and 15 goals scored in Europe. Four of those were when they destroyed this very Atletico side 4-0 at home.
If anything, this is the competition where Atletico haven't been so good.
Even aside from that drubbing in Munich, they only just beat Salzburg 3-2 at home and failed to beat Lokomotiv Moscow in two attempts, drawing them both.
So should they really be such warm favourites against arguably the best club side in world football at the moment? Not for me they shouldn't. Take Bayern on the double chance market.
Jota on a roll
Liverpool v Ajax
Live on BT Sport
An unexpected loss to Atalanta last week has left Liverpool in a tricky position. Had they won that and they'd be almost home and dry as far as securing their place in the Last 16 but a slip-up here followed by a likely Atalanta win over Midtjylland and things could become uncomfortable.
What it means above all is that Jurgen Klopp can't afford to play anything other than his best side or else he could be competing 'down' in the Europa League in the New Year.
The problem of course is that with so many injuries in the side there will be some tired legs out there as players such as Andrew Robertson and Georginio Wijnaldum just keep playing game after game.
So I'm not sure about the 13/20 on the home win and much prefer the 6/5 that Diogo Jota gets another goal.
He was rested against Atalanta, only playing the last half hour, and that may have been one of the reasons they lost. Back restored to the starting line-up, he scored their only goal in a 1-1 draw at Brighton. Once again he looked sharp, full of running and high on confidence. Let's hope it translates into a goal.
The treble comes to 7.15.
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