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Liverpool v Leicester: Goal quotes look too big

Jurgen Klopp may just be a little more cautious after Wednesday night
Jurgen Klopp may just be a little more cautious after Wednesday night
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After a winner at 13/1 last week, Dave Tindall looks at Saturday's showdown between the leaders and third-placed Leicester...

"These two sides have the joint-best defensive records in the Premier League, having conceded just five each in their seven games."

1.5pts Under 2.5 goals at [2.46]

Liverpool v Leicester
Saturday, 15:00

Liverpool 100% so far

It hasn't been perfection in terms of cruising past teams easily - watch the Chelsea and Sheffield United games for proof of that - but it's hard to argue with Liverpool's sensational start.

To get 21 points out of 21 and still give the impression that they're not always purring shows what a ruthless red machine Jurgen Klopp has created.

We saw it again in that thriller against RB Salzburg in midweek. Some delightful football to go 3-0 up, the shock of being pegged back to 3-3 but then going on to find a winner while exerting control again.

Liverpool keep finding a way. The odds look short but they go into this one on a remarkable run of 16 straight Premier League wins when adding in last season's run-in.

That puts them two short of Manchester City's record win-streak set between August and December two seasons ago.

Leicester lead chasing pack

Leicester were the shrewdies' choice to break into the top six this season but, on the early evidence, that seems a minimum goal.

With Man Utd languishing in mid-table, an inconsistent Chelsea rebuilding and Spurs in some sort of crisis, Leicester look stable and assured.

Brendan Rodgers' side are just two points behind Man City and have taken 12 from the last 15 after four wins and a defeat. They fully deserve to be third.

The one loss came at Old Trafford which does cast a slight doubt. And it was a similar story last season when losing 1-0 at Man City.

Have they got the nous and belief to go away and win big games like this? At some point they need to do more than just giving a good account of themselves.

Reds hot-favourites to march on

For something that has happened the last 16 times, getting 1/2 for a repeat is theoretically very palatable!

Yes, Liverpool are [1.49] to make it 24 points out of 24 this season while The Draw is [4.8].

Leicester aren't being too easily dismissed though, as shown by quotes of [7.8].

But, as stated above, are they really the ones to burst Liverpool's bubble? The sobering stat for Leicester backers is that Klopp's men are unbeaten in their last 43 home league games at Anfield and have won 33 of those.

Rodgers was fairly inept in big European away games when in charge of the Anfield side and that Leicester price doesn't convince me - especially compared to Crystal Palace's away odds in huge games when, as we know, Roy Hodgson's men are proven at taking big scalps on their travels.

The outright market isn't really for me.

Goals expectations may be too high

Perhaps Liverpool 4-3 RB Salzburg has skewed the market somewhat.

True, Liverpool are scoring freely again but don't look as strong at the back.

However, and there are a few howevers.

RB Salzburg were freakishly offensive at Anfield, just going for it with little regard for what holes they would leave. Liverpool were 3-0 up, got complacent and the goal count hit seven.

Having watched his side play far too openly, Klopp may well have extra caution against a Leicester team he already respects.

Joe Gomez played in the Reds defence against Salzburg and clearly looked rusty. Joel Matip will return and he's been one of Liverpool's best players.

And let's just take a look at those goals against columns. These two sides have the joint-best defensive records in the Premier League, having conceded just five each in their seven games.

Unders landed when Leicester drew 1-1 at Anfield last season while they also lost 1-0 on Merseyside in their glorious title-winning season.

Despite all the attacking talent on display, I think this should be closer to a pick 'em, in which case Under 2.5 goals at [2.46] is definitely worth a play.

Striking options are plentiful

Mo Salah and Sadio Mane shared the Golden Boot last season although they're being outscored by Callum Wilson so far in the current campaign.

However, they combined for three goals against Salzburg so they're hardly struggling.

Salah also likes playing Leicester - he has four in four against them - while Mane netted in both games versus the Foxes in the last campaign.

Jamie Vardy has scored more Premier League goals than both so far and he's netted in two of his last three visits to Anfield.

Vardy is [3] and Salah [1.95] so, if there is a spot of value, it would be Mane at [2.2] given that he nets just as many as Salah these days and has a superb scoring rate at Anfield.

Opta stat

This is Brendan Rodgers' first return to Anfield since leaving Liverpool in October 2015. Only one manager to have previously managed the Reds in the Premier League has won away against them in the competition - Roy Hodgson in April 2012 with West Brom (W1 D3 L9).

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For more tips and insight on the weekend action, watch the latest Football...Only Bettor podcast, as host Caroline Barker is joined by Kevin Hatchard, Andy Brassell and Infogol's Jake Osgathorpe to discuss all the best betting angles

Dave Tindall's P/L, 2019/20

Staked: 26.50pts
Returned: 43.24pts
P/L: +16.74pts

Dave Tindall,

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