Leicester v Newcastle: Back the Home comforts

Brendan Rodgers: Leicester manager
Brendan Rodgers: Leicester manager

Leicester should be too strong for Newcastle when the sides meet in the Premier League on Sunday and Andy Schooler has found a way to back them at 3/1.

"It may be only six games old, but the table doesn’t lie – the Foxes are a much better side and will finish much higher."

Back Leicester to win both halves @ 3/1

Leicester v Newcastle
Sunday, 16:30
Sky Sports Premier League

Leicester sit third in the Premier League heading into this game, Newcastle 17th.

It may be only six games old, but the table doesn't lie - the Foxes are a much better side and will finish much higher.

Sometimes when writing these previews you find snippets of information which cloud your judgement. However, on this occasion I'm determined to find a way of backing the hosts who have looked a level above the Magpies so far this season.

Leicester have only lost once, at Old Trafford, while on home soil they've taken seven points from a possible nine, including victory over Spurs last weekend.

Magpies struggling

Newcastle, on the other hand, have won just once - somewhat strangely at Tottenham. Aside from that result, their season has been pretty miserable.

They've failed to beat Brighton and Watford at home, two sides looking more like their relegation rivals with each passing week, and were also well beaten at another expected to struggle this season, Norwich.

Last Saturday they probably should have lost to Brighton with boss Steve Bruce admitting his team had "got away with one".

They struggled to create much going forward on that occasion and that's not something which has been confined to that one game - no top-flight side has scored fewer than Newcastle's four and now they go up against the league's joint-stingiest defence.

Against Brighton, the Magpies gave up chances to opponents who have themselves been short on goals with Bruce highlighting the problem that they were caught out by those operating "between the lines".

Maddison concern

Leicester have one of the best at that game in James Maddison, although he's been an injury doubt this week and may not play.

This is exactly the sort of information I was referencing - Maddison is one of the Foxes' best players these days and plays an influential part in their attack. If he misses out, at least Ayoze Perez is capable of filling his shoes to some extent and he'll want to shine against his old club.

Whoever plays 'in the hole' between midfield and attack will be looking to find Jamie Vardy, the striker who has now netted eight goals in his last nine home Premier League games. The 32-year-old also has three in his last six appearances against Newcastle.

You might expect Vardy's pace to be more useful away from the King Power Stadium but Leicester are not necessarily at their most dangerous on the break any more. The addition of Youri Tielemans, on top of Maddison, is much to do with that and that supply chain is capable of breaking sides down.

Newcastle, who have enjoyed the least possession of any Premier League side this season, will likely set out to frustrate but if they do go behind early then they could have a tough day at the office given the lack of creativity at their disposal.

Leicester too good

The potential return of Matt Ritchie and Sean Longstaff could help on that front, but I'm still of the opinion that Leicester will be too strong here.

They are 1.558/15 for the win, a worthwhile price for the big-hitters but not one I can put up here.

Newcastle are 7.87/1 to repeat their win at Spurs, with the draw at 4.216/5.

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Goal line looks right

In terms of the 2.5-goal line, the prices look about right, making unders a slight favourite at 1.84/5 but not by much.

That reflects the teams' stats on this front so far this season - Leicester have seen three of their six games feature three or more goals. For Newcastle, the figures are two in six.

Foxes to do it by half

I'd probably favour overs at the price (2.166/5) but I prefer to side with a tastier price, namely 3/1 about Leicester winning both halves.

They've already managed this against Bournemouth on home soil this season, while they also landed the bet away to Newcastle last term.

The Magpies have already lost both halves at Norwich and Liverpool.

I doubt you'll get 3/1 on this market very often in a third v 17th fixture. The reason you are getting it is because of the early-season nature of the fixture but given how Leicester have started this season - and performed generally since Brendan Rodgers' arrival - I wouldn't be that surprised to see the sides finish in such positions.

Take the 3/1 now while you can.

Opta fact

Leicester striker Jamie Vardy has been directly involved in 10 goals in his last nine Premier League home games, scoring eight and assisting a further two.

Premier League Score Predictor with Infogol

Andy Schooler's P/L 2019/20

Staked: 16pts
Returned: 22.27pts
P/L: +6.27pts

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