Leicester v Crystal Palace
BT Sport 1
Saturday evening's televised Premier League game features two sides in contrasting form - and I'm not sure the odds reflect that well enough.
Leicester are on their worst run of the season, having lost five and won none of their last six in all competitions, albeit they have had some tough fixtures.
On home soil, things have been particularly bad with just three points collected in their last five at the King Power Stadium.
Somewhat bizarrely those points came thanks to a 2-1 win over champions Manchester City, but while Leicester have caught the eye against some of the top sides - they've also beaten Chelsea and drawn at Liverpool in the last two months - they've has some poor results against the strugglers.
Cardiff and Southampton have already left the King Power with victories, while Burnley earned a point.
An increasingly restless home support won't help that home form but the team and management haven't helped on that front.
The Foxes have failed to score in a third of their home games, while boss Claude Puel continues to baffle many fans with his selections - the latest controversial decision being to drop Jamie Vardy to the bench at Spurs last time out. For this out he could be forced to do without two of his best players this season with both Ben Chilwell and James Maddison injury doubts.
Vardy will surely return for this one, although he will do so against a Palace side on their best run of 2018/19.
Having fought their way into the quarter-finals of the FA Cup, Roy Hodgson's side have now won seven of their last 13 in all competitions, with no defeat in their last five.
They've been particularly threatening on the road, which is no surprise given the pace in their side which allows them to hit opponents on the counter.
Wilfried Zaha is the main threat and he's back from suspension for this one. He was man of the match in his last outing against West Ham, a game Palace drew 1-1 but one they really should have won given the chances they created, the otherwise impressive James McArthur blotting his copybook with some poor finishing.
Putting opportunities away has been a long-running problem for them but they also know they've got goals in them and as long as they keep creating chances then they will be fairly happy.
Remember, this is a team which scored three times at Man City and Liverpool (winning the former match), while they've also won 2-0 at Wolves recently.
A whopping 67% of their goals have been scored in away matches and frankly their odds of 3.613/5 to win the game look tempting.
Leicester are too short for me at 2.35/4. The draw can be backed at 3.412/5.
Not too many of these sides' games have featured over 2.5 goals - both are well below 50% on this front - so it's understandable why the overs is up at 2.226/5 here. You can get 1.84/5 about under that mark.
However, it is another goals market that I like the look of - the one regarding Palace's first-half goals.
Early trouble for Foxes?
Leicester have had real issues at the start of games with 11 goals conceded in the first 15 minutes alone. For the first half as a whole, they've let in 22 (compared with 12 in the second half). At home, the split is even starker - 10 in the first half and just three after the break.
They've conceded in the first half of each of their last five (the goal times being 33, 9, 3, 4 and 11) and four of their last five at home.
Palace have scored 12 of their 27 goals before half time - a ratio close to the league average - but in recent times they've been finding the target early with greater regularity, perhaps a reflection of their need for points, for despite their improved form they come into this game just three points above the relegation zone.
Hodgson's side have scored in the first half in their last four, and in four of their last five away games. Their winner in the reverse fixture also came before the interval.
Those stats all make 6/4 about them having over 0.5 goals in the first half of this one look very good.
For those looking for something bigger, 9/1 about Palace leading at the break and not winning is worth considering. Or maybe a trade on the Exchange could be the way to go given these stats:
Palace have led in 12 games this season but have only ended up winning seven of them, while Leicester head the league for points won from behind, collecting 13 from games in which they have trailed.
This bet has won in three of Palace's last five games and given Leicester's respective strengths and weaknesses, it could be worth taking a punt on it happening again.
Same Game Multi
I've got a nice 29.16 double for my Same Game Multi - Youri Tielemans and Ricardo Pereira both to be shown a card.
New signing Tielemans was booked on his only game in English football so far, making it 10 in 31 appearances across the season. This will be his home debut so he should be striving to impress.
As for right-back Pereira, he goes up against Zaha, the league's leading dribbler, one who draws fouls from opponents on a regular basis. He's been carded in five of his last 16 league games - another could well follow here.
Only three teams have been shown more yellow cards at home than Leicester, while the Foxes are also one of only three sides to have collected two or more reds on their own ground.
Crystal Palace have won each of their last three Premier League games against Leicester, by an aggregate score of 9-0. They've only won more top-flight games in a row against Wimbledon (5), Southampton and Stoke (4 each).
Premier League Predictor: Correct-score verdicts for this weekend's games