Dave Tindall is backing Burnley to nick a point off Leicester in Saturday's Premier League showdown at the King Power Stadium...
"They’re not sure-things at home and last season’s tally of 12 wins from 19 matches was extremely low for a title winner. Compare it to the home wins of the 10 previous champions: 15, 17, 16, 18, 18, 17, 16, 17, 15, 18."
Leicester v Burnley
There are two ways of imagining how Leicester's superb 3-0 victory over Club Brugge on Wednesday night might impact this game.
Fuelled by the addition of another magical chapter in their fairy story, the Foxes kick on here, show some swagger and brush Burnley aside. Or, after the high of winning handsomely on their Champions League debut, will it be a case of struggling to get motivated for a routine Premier League game against one of the division's least fashionable sides.
Leicester certainly looked as if they had one eye on Europe when thumped 4-1 at Anfield (that said, Liverpool were superb,) while they were also turned over 2-1 at Hull.
In front of their passionate home fans, Claudio Ranieri's men held Arsenal 0-0 in a match where Mark Clattenburg controversially denied them a late penalty. And they then beat Swansea 2-1 although had to sweat after the visitors pulled a goal back with ten minutes to go. Hardly convincing.
Even looking back to last season's triumphant campaign, it's evident that they're not sure-things at home and their tally of 12 wins from 19 matches was extremely low for a title winner. Compare it to the home wins of the 10 previous champions: 15, 17, 16, 18, 18, 17, 16, 17, 15, 18.
With their scheduled away game at Liverpool being switched to Turf Moor due to the rebuilding work at Anfield, Burnley fans have seen their team in action on the road just once in the Premier League this season. And it didn't go well - a 3-0 reverse at Chelsea.
The gameplan went out of the window inside 10 minutes when Eden Hazard put the hosts in front and it went downhill from there, Burnley failing even to get a shot on target.
Their only other away game was a 1-0 loss to Accrington, a game decided in the last minute of extra-time after both had fired blanks in regulation play.
It's been better news for Sean Dyche's men at home, the standout result being the 2-0 win over Liverpool despite having just 19.6% of possession. They were within seconds of making it two straight home victories against Hull last weekend before Robert Snodgrass' injury-time free-kick wiped out Steven Defour's thumped 72nd minute opener.
It's pretty obvious how Sean Dyche will tackle this one. Sit back, don't give Leicester space in behind and try and nullify the threat of Jamie Vardy.
Leicester are 1.564/7 to bag the three points on Saturday and that might well be enough for many to pull the trigger.
Burnley are 7.26/1 to stun the champions while the draw is 4.47/2.
Looking at the head-to-heads, Burnley have managed draws in three of their last four trips to the King Power Stadium.
Two seasons ago, Ross Wallace struck a 90th minute equaliser after Riyad Mahrez's 40th minute goal looked to have secured the points. In December 2013, Danny Ings levelled after the break to give Burnley a point and they also emerged with a 0-0 draw in the 2011/12 campaign.
Over/Under 2.5 Goals
Only an 89th minute strike from Chelsea's Victor Moses has stopped all five Burnley games finishing under 2.5 goals. That's hardly a surprise. They're a grinding team in the image of their manager so will look to keep it tight.
Leicester have already played out a 0-0 draw in front of their home fans and towards the back end of last season when teams had started to work them out and dropped deeper to defend, the Foxes had to dig out wins. Note the 1-0 scorelines in successive home against Norwich, Newcastle and Southampton, the first two listed going on to be relegated.
With Unders north of even money at 2.0421/20, that has to be the play.
I like the draw in this game but backing Unders at an odds-against price would still allow us to absorb a 1-0 or 2-0 Leicester win and still make a profit from the whole preview if stakes are equal.
Jamie Vardy has already netted three times this season - v Man Utd in the Community Shield, home to Swansea and away to Liverpool (thanks Lucas!) so the Sportsbook price of 11/10 to score anytime looks fair. He makes more appeal than a Leicester win.
Anthony Taylor is the man in the middle for this one. The Cheshire official didn't reach for his pocket at all in Bayern's 5-0 drubbing of Rostov in midweek or in Man Utd's 2-0 home win over Southampton last month. However, he's shown seven, four and five cards in Chelsea v West Ham, West Brom v Middlesbrough and Stoke v Spurs respectively. He's not been unduly harsh on Leicester players in the past, booking one v Sunderland, two v Man City, one v Spurs and two v West Brom in the last four times he's taken charge of them. He was also the ref for Leicester's 1-0 win at Burnley in 2014/15, showing three cards (all to Burnley players).
Back the Draw @ 4.47/2
Back Under 2.5 Goals @ 2.0421/20
Leicester's record of four points from four games is the joint-second lowest return for a reigning Premier League champion (Blackburn 3 in 1995-96 and Chelsea 4 in 2015-16).
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