Premier League: Reliable Ranieri record to help Leicester persevere

Leicester boss Claudio Ranieri has a pretty positive record in the final months of league campaigns
Leicester boss Claudio Ranieri has a pretty positive record in the final months of top-flight seasons

Claudio Ranieri traditionally averages two points per game in the final 12 matches of league seasons...


"One other positive for Foxes fans is that Ranieri hasn’t dropped a position from this stage of the season to the finale in any of his previous four full campaigns."

Danny Welbeck's last-gasp winner for Arsenal on Sunday was interpreted as such a decisive moment in the absorbing Premier League title race that it is easy to forget that Leicester remain two points clear of both their conquerors and Tottenham.

The Foxes trail both in the winner market though, with odds of 4.77/2 emphasising that most expect them to fade away.

The same was true on the two prior occasions that they were defeated and they rallied both times, winning eight in ten following the home loss to Arsenal and going seven unbeaten after a Boxing Day reverse to Liverpool, earning victories over Tottenham, Liverpool and Manchester City in that period.

Are they capable of uncovering a third wind? To help answer the question, Betting.Betfair decided to study Claudio Ranieri's record in the final 12 league games of past top-flight seasons, much as it did for Louis van Gaal and Mauricio Pochettino.

It isn't as straightforward a process for Ranieri as it is for the other two though because of the quirkiness of his career path. He has only actually completed two campaigns at the highest level since leaving Chelsea in 2004, often being brought in and kicked out midway through.

However, the fact that his last three full terms are spread across an 11-year stretch and cover three different clubs and divisions - Chelsea in 2003/04, Juventus in 2007/08 and Monaco in 2013/14 - arguably makes him delivering the exact same number of points between weeks 27 and 38 for each even more powerful and instructive.

In all of those examples, the Italian guided his team to 24 points, a rate of two points per game. That wouldn't usually be quite enough for first place but the midlanders are the sole side currently hitting that average in 2015/16 so, if their rivals maintained their week 1-26 standard over the remaining fixtures, replicating that tried-and-tested run-in would land the 64-year-old his first top-tier title.

The worry is whether one of their pursuers has the quality to find a new gear that Leicester aren't able to equal. Tottenham have hinted that they carry this potential by taking 25 of the last 30 points offered to them (2.5 per match), yet their ability to stay cool during squeaky-bum time is similarly subject to suspicion given their tendency in recent years to lose ground in the closing weeks.

One other positive for Foxes fans is that Ranieri hasn't dropped a position from this stage of the season to the finale in any of his previous four full campaigns.

Get a Free £/€20 Exchange Bet

  • Join Now - Open account using promo code VAL225
  • Bet - Place a £/€20 Bet on the Exchange
  • Earn We'll Refund You £/€20 If the Bet Loses
Bet now

T&Cs apply.

Discover the latest articles

Read past articles