Fulham v Bournemouth: Cherries can pick off freefalling Fulham

Steven Rawlings
26 October 2018

Eddie Howe - looking to mastermind a fourth away win in six

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Eddie Howe's Bournemouth travel to London in search of their fourth away win in six against a struggling Fulham side desperate to halt a slide. Read Steve Rawlings' take on Saturday's encounter here...

“Fulham fans will be desperate to see a reaction to last week’s sorry defeat in Wales but Cardiff scored as many last Saturday against Fulham as they’d scored in their previous eight Premier League games this season and Bournemouth have to be the play at an industry-wide best of 6/4.”

Fulham v Bournemouth
Saturday 27 October 2018, 15:00

Heavy investment hasn't prevented Fulham freefall

Fulham fans can't possibly bemoan the amount of investment in the squad following their playoff victory against Aston Villa last season. Almost £100m was spent before the new Premier League season began and it's quite possible that they may even have overinvested.

Including loan signings, 14 players joined the club in the summer and understandably, it seems to be taking manager, Slavisa Jokanovic, a long time to sort out his team. Multiple changes are being made before each game and we've seen both a back-three and a back-four tried in defence but nothing's really worked.

Fulham have lost six of their opening nine Premier League fixtures, conceding 25 goals on the way! That's six more than anyone else in the division and the highest number after nine games since Southampton conceded 26 in 2012. They're only victory came against an out-of-form Burnley at home in August and they've let in at least two goals in eight of their nine games to date. A 1-5 thrashing at home to Arsenal was followed by a 4-2 defeat to fellow strugglers, Cardiff, last weekend and they appear to be getting worse instead of better. Fulham are in freefall and they're already in big trouble.

A combination of a team not yet gelling and gung-ho Championship-style tactics have resulted in a terrible start that's gone from bad to worse and Jokanovic is challenging Jose Mourinho for favouritism in the Next Manager to Leave market.

Positive signs for blossoming Bournemouth

Despite a somewhat disappointing stalemate with south coast rivals, Southampton, last week, Bournemouth's campaign has started really nicely and they're already up to sixth.

Their 4-0 defeat at Burnley last month has to be considered one of the most bizarre results of the season so far and the only other team to beat the Cherries this term is Chelsea - 2-0 at Stamford Bridge at the beginning of September.

Bournemouth's good run isn't anything new and it stretches back to the end of last season. The Burnley and Chelsea defeats are the only two experienced since April and they've won seven of their last 11 in the Premier League.

The Cherries' tally of 16 points from nine games is nine more than they'd accrued this time last season and a couple of things will please the gaffer, Eddie Howe, in particular. Although they finished as high as 12th, only three teams conceded more goals than Bournemouth last season so back-to-back clean sheets for the first time in almost a year is a huge plus and so to is the fact that they've now won three of their last five on the road.

Cherries the value at a juicy 6/4

This is the first time these two sides have met in the Premier League but outside of the top-fight Bournemouth have had the upper hand, losing just two of their last 16 encounters and winning nine.

Fulham fans will be desperate to see a reaction to last week's sorry defeat in Wales but Cardiff scored as many last Saturday against Fulham as they'd scored in their previous eight Premier League games this season and Bournemouth have to be the play at an industry-wide best of 6/4.

Goals expected but value thin on the ground

A total of 36 goals have been scored and conceded in Fulham's first nine Premier League ties and while not quite as high as Fulham's 4, Bournemouth's average of 3.11 goals scored and conceded per game is high enough. All nine of Fulham's Premier League ties have seen at least two goals and seven of the nine have produced at least three, so it's perfectly understandable why Over 2 ½ Goals is a long odds-on shot - especially when considering that six of Bournemouth's nine ties have seen at least three goals too, but I'm a little reticent to rush in.

The Cherries keeping two clean sheets in-a-row could be a sign of a more pragmatic approach from Howe and I can't believe that Jokanovic hasn't worked all week to try and plug the gaps. Whether he's capable of turning it around is yet to be seen but it's no secret that these two sides produce goal-rich encounters and the markets are priced up accordingly.

I can't pretend I wasn't tempted by the odds-against for Over 3 ½ Goals but Fulham/Bournemouth in the Half Time/Full Time market looks a juicier proposition. Fulham have started well before getting pegged back a few times this season and 64% of their goals have come in the first half. An early goal by the hosts isn't out of the question but I can see Bournemouth overcoming any early deficit and they came from behind to win away at West Ham in August having been 1-0 down at the break so there might just be a bit of value in that outcome.

Same Game Multi

If you fancy combining two or more scenarios to build a bet that pays a bit more, click on the Same Game Multi tab at the top of the Sportsbook market and pick two or more selections to build a wager. For example, Bournemouth to win and Ryan Fraser to score pays £6.34 for a £1 stake, Bournemouth to win and Bournemouth to score Over 2.5 Goals pays £4.59 for £1 stake, and if you combine all three it pays £9.76.

2018/19 P/L

Staked: 32 pts
Returned: 31.11pts
P/L: -0.89 pts

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