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Premier League and FA Cup Tips: Expect goals this weekend

Things have took a turn for the worse for Mauricio Pochettino

"Southampton had started well under their new manager but back to back defeats have seen questions begin to be asked."

Back Norwich @ 2.45 (29/20)

After three profitable weeks in a row and a 13pt profit in 2013, Paul Robinson is looking at both the Premier League and FA Cup this week. Here are his Fixed Odds Selections:

Norwich v Southampton  

Back Norwich @ 2.45 (29/20)  
Back Over 2.5 goals @ 1.83 (5/6)  

Norwich welcome Southampton to Carrow Road on Saturday afternoon and with the honeymoon period over for Mauricio Pochettino, The Canaries look decent value to pick up the win at 2.45 (29/20).

Chris Hughton's side are 13th in the league with 32 points, which is eight clear of the relegation zone. One of the early season favourites to go down, Norwich put a poor start behind them and went on a run of 10 without loss, and despite their form tailing off since, they seem to have done almost enough to ensure survival for another year.

A defeat at Old Trafford was to be expected and before that they were four without loss in the Premier League, including a home win over Everton. That victory over the Toffees was their first in front of their own fans since December, but they had held Newcastle, Spurs and Fulham prior to it, conceding just a single goal.

Southampton had started well under their new manager but back to back defeats have seen questions begin to be asked. The loss at Newcastle can possibly be excused, although the four goals conceded is a worry, but the 2-1 home defeat to QPR was a really poor result.

Pochettino has started to tinker with the team and it's not really worked thus far. The Saints were also dealt a blow with club captain Adam Lallana picking up another injury at the weekend and it wouldn't surprise me if they were dragged back into the relegation battle that they looked to have almost escaped from.

The goal markets look to hold some value as well for this fixture as Southampton's defence isn't up to much at the moment, while Norwich can bang in a few goals on their day. Over 2.5 is available to back at 1.83 (5/6), which is a price that I will be taking.

Reading v Aston Villa
  
Back Aston Villa @ 3.0 (2/1)  
Back Aston Villa to win 2-1 @ 10.0 (9/1)  

There's a huge six pointer happening at the Madejski Stadium on Saturday and I'm taking the Villans to get a massive result for themselves at a delicious 3.0 (2/1).

Reading come into this game on the back of four straight defeats in all competitions. The comeback kings have faltered in recent weeks and their slide back into the Championship looks almost inevitable to me. You can't keep leaving yourself with that much to do going into the final 15-20 minutes of matches and in the last couple of games the players have looked a touch deflated.

Brian McDermott's side were beaten at Goodison Park in convincing fashion and completely outplayed by Wigan in their last home fixture - a match they lost 3-0. Pavel Pogrebnyak is suspended so while Adam Le Fondre will get his chance from the start, it seems that he's much more effective from the bench.

Aston Villa went down 1-0 to Man City on Monday night but they played some relatively decent stuff at times and the defence did at least look a bit more solid than it has done at times this year. Fabian Delph picked up his 10th yellow card of the campaign so he will serve a two game ban, but I wouldn't say he's a key player of the team at this stage.

Christian Benteke is of course the main man and if he Weimann, Agbonlahor and N'Zogbia can combine effectively, then they can add to Villa's total of eight goals in their last four away Premier League games. Their form on the road hasn't been too bad of late; one defeat in four, which was a narrow 2-1 loss at Arsenal, and they did beat Liverpool 3-1 at Anfield back in December.

Villa are most definitely the value here with a correct score of 1-2 being the stand out price from the secondary markets at 10.0 (9/1).

Man United v Chelsea  - Live on ITV1 at 16:30

Back Man United @ 1.72 (8/11) 
Back Over 3.5 goals @ 2.5 (6/4)  

My final selection of the week comes from the FA Cup as Manchester United look to put their bitter disappointment against Real Madrid behind them by getting through to the semi-finals of the FA Cup at the expense of Chelsea.

United may be out of Europe but they are still in with a great chance of winning the double and if anyone can come back from adversity, it's Sir Alex Ferguson. Up until the Nani red card, the Red Devils were looking relatively comfortable against Madrid and prior to that they'd been in excellent form domestically.

At Old Trafford United have won 14 matches straight in domestic competitions and they've even started keeping clean sheets again, with two in their last two against Everton and Norwich. Wayne Rooney will be back in the team and he will most certainly have a point to prove after being left out on Tuesday, so expect fireworks from him.

Chelsea have been very inconsistent of late, seemingly either sublime or decidedly poor. Rafa Benitez has few allies within the club but silverware is silverware and the players will pull together for the chance to win a trophy.

I'm not sure their best will be good enough on Sunday though as I expect a huge reaction from Man United and I can see them taking out all their frustrations on the Londoners. Despite United tightening up at the back, I can see Chelsea nicking a goal or two, so if you are wary of backing a home win at odds-on, then over 3.5 goals at 2.5 (6/4) is worth a punt.

Recommended Bets
Back Norwich @ 2.45 (29/20)  
Back Over 2.5 in Norwich v Southampton goals @ 1.83 (5/6)  
Back Aston Villa @ 3.0 (2/1)  
Back Aston Villa to beat Reading 2-1 @ 10.0 (9/1)  
Back Man United @ 1.72 (8/11) 
Back Over 3.5 goals in Man United v Chelsea @ 2.5 (6/4)
 

Prices are based on our Fixed Odds product, so any winnings are exempt from commission.

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06 March 2013

Premier League

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