Fantasy Football League: All about the attackers

Neil Monnery
04 August 2017

Jermain Defoe scored 15 a season in a poor Sunderland side, what can he do at Bournemouth?

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In the final piece looking at fantasy options ahead of the weekly columns starting next week, Neil Monnery looks at where the best value is among strikers this season...

Top Five Strikers 2016-17:

Kane - 224
Lukaku - 221
Costa - 196
Aguero - 175
Defoe - 166

Both Firmino (180) and King (178) where classified as midfielders in the 2016/17 season

A 33-goal season for Harry Kane?

In his past three season's the England striker has scored 21, 25 then 29 times. If this was a GCSE Maths class then I would be asking who can spot the pattern. Whether he'll hit the 33 mark is a question no-one will know the answer to until April but what we do know is he's become the safest fantasy play in the game. This is represented for the 2017/18 campaign by a hefty £12.5m price tag.

As of the time of writing, more than a third of teams (35%) have selected the 24-year-old to lead their line. If this was an American style draft fantasy league, Kane would surely be the first pick. So the question isn't whether he'll score a bundle of goals (injury permitting) but whether he's worth more than some of the other options in what is a relatively shallow attacking class?

One thing I haven't really made a big deal of during these columns is that Spurs are playing their home league games at Wembley this season. We all saw how it affected them in the Champions League but those wide open spaces seem to play to their strengths, with the likes of Alli, Eriksen and Son feeding their superstar striker. Sometimes though it doesn't work like that. Will the crowd being further away from the pitch create less of a fever-pitch atmosphere that we sometimes saw at the Lane?

I think Kane will score 20+ easy but with his notoriously slow start (has never scored in the opening three league games of a season) coupled with how his team will adapt to their new surroundings. I have reservations as to whether he's worth the extra money.

If not Kane then who out of the cream of the crop?

Six other players will set you back £10.0m or more. One I'm willing to rule out straight away and it breaks my heart to do so. Sergio Aguero is one of the very best of his generation but it seems pretty clear that he'll not be the number one choice for Pep Guardiola this season. If he's only a back-up then you cannot be spending £11.5m on him.

The man set to oust him from the starting spot is Gabriel Jesus. The young Brazilian is currently trading at 10.519/2 to be the top Premier League goalscorer on the Exchange and that seems crazy long to me. In his 671 minutes of EPL action last year, the 20-year-old scored seven while setting up four. If he was able to reproduce that form over the course of a whole season then he'd be looking at around 30 goals and 17 assists. Jesus at £10.5m is a plum choice to be your number one striker.

At Chelsea we can rule out spending the £10.0m it would cost to pick Diego Costa (although 2% of teams have done so far for some unknown reason) but Alvaro Morata is the same price. Having looked set for a move to Old Trafford, the 24-year-old instead wound up at Stamford Bridge. Last year he bagged 15 for Real Madrid but that was his career high for a season in a top flight. Can he cope with the physicality of the Premier League and be the focal point of an attack week in, week out? I have my doubts but any first choice striker playing for one of the clubs with title ambitions has to be considered.

Add to that Romelu Lukaku and Alexandre Lacazette. The Belgian has been on the fantasy EPL radar for quite some time and bagged himself 25 goals last time around for Everton. He should in theory be playing with better attacking talent this time around and must be considered a potential 30 goal man. He would set you back £11.5m.

As for Lacazette (£10.5m), he has been tearing up Ligue 1 for a while now and at 26 he should be entering his peak years. Having scored more than 20 for three consecutive league season's, the French international has shown he has the ability to put up consistent numbers. Playing as the focal point of the Arsenal attack should provide him with the opportunity to score 20 plus again. The Alexis Sanchez transfer rumours won't go away until September 1 but even without him, Arsene Wenger does have some attacking talent around him.

Based on solely my thoughts on amount of goals they'll score (and not taking cost into the equation) I rate the top seven strikers thusly:

1 - Jesus
1a - Kane
1b - Lukaku
2 - Lacazette
2b - Morata
3 - Aguero
947 - Costa

After the big seven, what next?

13.7% of teams have new Bournemouth striker Jermain Defoe in and I ask myself why? Not why have so many players brought him in but why so many have chosen other strikers. I know he is 34 and the Cherries aren't exactly a fashionable team but this should be a player people are scrambling over. He's scored 15 in back-to-back season's for a terrible Sunderland team. His form has brought him back into the England fold and most importantly, could he have landed in a better spot than with Eddie Howe's side? They attack mercilessly and always want to play football. Defoe won't be feeding off scraps here, he'll be feasting as through-balls and cut backs from the by-line find where he's standing. Big fan of him at £8.0m as your number two or three striker.

Staying at £8.0m, you'll see Christian Benteke. The Crystal Palace striker knows a good season is what is required with a World Cup looming on the horizon. With new manager Frank de Boer in situ, it will be very interesting to see how the Eagles fly this time around. The 26 year-old scored a sneakily good 15 times last time around and speculation linking him with Everton was swiftly denied. He is definitely a player who should be on the mind of a fantasy manager going into the campaign.

Will 2017/18 be the year that everyone is having a party again? Jamie Vardy (£8.5m) was a fantasy bust last season, well until Claudio Ranieri left anyway. After that he sparked back into life. Five goals in 22 games before the change of manager and eight in the 13 afterwards (he served a three-game suspension in the middle of the season). If he goes back to that sort of form then he has to be part of the thought-process.

He might well be joined up front by £7.0m man Kelechi Iheanacho. The big question here is how he'll fit in without the likes of Kevin De Bruyne, David Silva and the ilk setting up the chances for him. He is relatively cheap but do we really know how good he is?

Also available at £7.0m is Javier Hernández after returning to the Premier League from the Bundesliga. The former Manchester United man managed more than a goal every two games in the German league over the past two season's (28 in 54). If he can stay healthy then he could be a very nice fantasy asset. I'm not willing to start with him until we see how he fits into West Ham's system but if he does, expect his price to rise pretty quickly.

Marcus Rashford is 500k more at £7.5m but if Mourinho is willing to play two up front more this season then he's another worth keeping a very close eye on. The England international was stuck on the flank or riding the pine too often in Jose's first campaign at Old Trafford. If he gets more of a look in up top though, be prepared to move swiftly.

Players I don't like in this range are Olivier Giroud (£8.5m), Wayne Rooney (£7.5m) and Vincent Janssen (£7.5m)

From £6.5m downwards

It seems a lifetime ago that I rode Charlie Austin's coattails to fantasy Premier League glory but in reality it was only in 2014/15. The former QPR man scored 18 times to go along with eight assists that season but sadly hasn't been able to replicate that since. The Southampton striker did have a good run in the middle of his last campaign before injury curtailed the promising return to full form. If fit, healthy and a starter, at £6.5m he is a good pick for your cheap third striker option.

When we come to discussing our next bargain basement option, first of all we have to ask where did it all go wrong for him? Saido Berahino was a phenomenon at West Brom and plundered 14 goals in his 2014/15 campaign before seeing his career disappear before our very eyes. He is shockingly still only 23-years-old and if back to full health, with the hunger that made him a force to be reckoned with, could he get back to those levels once more? If so, he'd be a fantastic purchase for just £6.0m.

Another name to mention at this level is £5.5m man Tammy Abraham. The Chelsea player is set to spend the season on loan at Swansea. At just 19, he could go the way of many young players at the Bridge and fizzle out into nothing like the hype that surrounds him, yet every time I saw him playing the box last season for Bristol City, he looked good. He grabbed 23 in 41 for the Championship side and he has the makings of being a real talent. He could be the next Romelu Lukaku, he has a very similar style. I like this 19-year-old a lot but this is a big step up.

Last up at £5.0m is Dominic Solanke. If he gets chances to make an impact in the first team at Anfield, how can you not love grabbing a centre-forward for a potential title chaser at such a low price? Watch him with interest to see how much game time he gets following his move from Chelsea in the summer.

Final thoughts

The striking pool seems relatively shallow this season. Defoe, Benteke and Vardy are all great number two options behind one of your expensive picks. I think Jesus is set for a year for the ages if he has indeed got that starting spot all to himself. Personally I have more faith in Alexandre Lacazette than Alvaro Morata to get to grips with the English game before Christmas. Down in the bargain basement I think Saido Berahino might be ready to be a force to be reckoned with once again but if you can afford three strikers all above £8.0m somehow then go for it and save a bit in midfield where the options seem deeper.

All prices are taken from the fantasy football game on the official premierleague.com website

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Here are Neil's picks for

Midfielders

Defenders

Goalkeepers