Everton v West Ham: Hard to trust toiling Toffees

Mark O'Haire
18 October 2019

Everton boss Marco Silva is the Sack Race favourite

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The Premier League swings back into action on Saturday as Everton welcome West Ham for the early kick-off. Mark O'Haire shares his betting opinion for the Goodison Park game...

"Everton have conceded first in five of their last six and the Toffees have never won under Marco Silva when shipping first (W0-D3-L17)"

Everton v West Ham
Saturday October 19, 12:30
Sky Sports

Silva under serious pressure at Everton

Everton manager Marco Silva remains at Goodison Park despite a nervous international break. The Toffees boss is the frontrunner in the Sack Race after presiding over four consecutive Premier League defeats, a run of results that have seen the Merseysiders plummet down the table into the relegation zone.

Silva is in the second of a three-year deal and is confident he can turn the club's fortunes around. Everton were typically consistent in his first season in charge, their eighth-placed finish was the 11th time in the past 13 campaigns the Toffees have ended between fifth and eighth. But after a summer spending spree of more than £100m, progress has been scarce.

Defeat to Manchester City was nothing to be ashamed of but losses (and no-shows) against Bournemouth, Sheffield United and Burnley were alarming for Everton supporters. Silva will be looking for an immediate reaction on Saturday, although he'll have to do so without suspended skipper Seamus Coleman. Fabian Delph remains a doubt with a hamstring strain.

West Ham fail to fire against Palace

West Ham suffered their first reverse since the opening weekend of the season before the international break when conceding an 87th-minute goal against Crystal Palace, awarded by the video assistant referee at the London Stadium. The strike was initially ruled offside by the linesman but the decision was overturned after a lengthy VAR review.

Sebastien Haller had given the Hammers the lead when he swept home 10 minutes after the interval but Palace ended West Ham's six-game unbeaten run with two strikes in the final half-four. Manuel Pellegrini's men arguably only had themselves to blame as Haller, Andriy Yarmolenko, Felipe Anderson and Manuel Lanzini were all uncharacteristically off key.

Haller fluffed a golden chance in the first half and even after the visitors had got back on level terms, the Hammers enjoyed enough openings to pick up at least a point. Post-match Pellegrini admitted, "It's hard to accept. We scored a goal and took the lead but we had other chances. We had three good chances to score but didn't manage to." Lukasz Fabianski remains out.

Lukas Fabianski 1280.jpg

Toffees unappealling at odds-on

Everton have won more Premier League games (25) and scored more Premier League goals (83) against West Ham than they have against any other side. However, the Toffees were beaten 3-1 here last season and have now lost two of their past three meetings with the Hammers in the EPL - as many as in their previous 22 in the competition (W13-D7-L2).

Everton 2.001/1 have lost their last four Premier League games - the club's worst run since October 2005 (six games) - although the hosts do boast a respectable W12-D4-L7 league record at Goodison Park under Marco Silva. The Toffees have been undone by poor finishing with the hosts ranking second-bottom for both shot and shots on-target conversion rates.

Silva's issues are also evident at the back with Seamus Coleman unavailable. Without the Irish right-back, Everton have lost six of nine games since Silva arrived (67%), compared to just 35% of the 37 matches he's started. The hosts have also struggled to replace enforcer Idrissa Gueye with new signing Jean-Philippe Gbamin still crocked and Fabian Delph a doubt.

West Ham 4.003/1 saw their six-match unbeaten streak ended last time out (W3-D3-L1). The Hammers have avoided defeat in each of their last away Premier League days (W3-D3-L0) - their best run since January 2009 - and only Liverpool (21) and Manchester City (82) have been trailing for fewer minutes than the Hammers (96) this season.

Fast-starting Hammers can hurt Everton

West Ham have bagged the opening goal in all six matches where there's been at least one strike since their opening day loss to Man City. Only three of those fixtures have beaten the Over 2.5 Goals 1.768/11 line but overall only four teams have seen a larger Expected Goals (xG) from open play average across the opening stanza of the season.

Everton have conceded first in five of their last six and the Toffees have never won under Marco Silva when shipping first (W0-D3-L17); that includes a 3-1 defeat in this fixture last term, causing concern amongst home supporters. The hosts don't have a reputation for high-scoring Goodison Park thrillers so it's best to look elsewhere for a best bet.

Considering we want to keep the Hammers onside, and we also anticipate the visitors getting on the scoresheet, it's worth entering Betfair Sportsbook's Same Game Multi market where West Ham double chance and West Ham to score Over 0.5 Goals is available at an appealing 2.10 on Saturday afternoon.

Mark's 2019/20 Profit/Loss

Staked: 34.00 pts
Returned: 36.65 pts
P/L: +2.65 pts

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