Everton [1.54] v Hull City [7.6]; The Draw [4.4]
After a wobble before Christmas, Everton have rediscovered their form and are well on course to finish as the best of the rest in the Premier League. The Toffees are currently seventh and Ronald Koeman has spoken about breaking into the top six. But realistically, with a seven-point cushion over the sides below them, their current position would be considered a strong first season in charge.
Everton have only lost once in their last 11 league games, at Tottenham, with the side particularly strong at home. The Toffees have reeled off five successive wins in the competition at Goodison Park including last week's 3-0 victory over West Brom. Romelu Lukaku has again been prolific with the striker integral to their success having scored 20 goals for the club this season.
New boss Marco Silva has certainly made a difference to Hull since his arrival in January and he has helped give them a realistic chance of avoiding relegation. Their recovery has been sparked by excellent home form where they have yet to lose under Silva. Their victory over Liverpool in February gave them a huge boost of confidence and they have built on this.
Hull have found it much harder on the road though and Silva is still looking for his first away win. The side claimed a creditable 0-0 draw at Old Trafford but they badly need to add to their solitary victory at Swansea back in August. Hull picked up a crucial home win over the Swans in last weekend's return game which has taken them to within a point of 17th-placed Crystal Palace.
Everton are worthy favourites for this match but there is not much in the way of value at just [1.54]. Koeman's side are full of confidence and in excellent form so there is every reason to fancy them. But there are alternative ways of supporting the Toffees so these odds are probably worth swerving.
Hull are drifting to [7.6] but is easy to see why with a wretched away record. Silva has been unable to translate their success at the KCOM Stadium to elsewhere and this does not look like a likely place to start. The visitors are probably facing Everton at the wrong time and are not fancied to win.
The draw is around the [4.4] mark but only two of Hull's last 13 games have ended level. Everton have not drawn at home since December and their strong record at Goodison Park means this outcome does not appeal. But on balance, with a home win such short odds, it is worth looking in a different market for a bet.
A better way to back the favourites could be to take Everton to cover a one-goal handicap. The Toffees have won their last five home matches by at least two goals. Hull's last seven defeats have all been by more than one goal so this bet appeals at [2.46]. Rather than supporting Everton at odds-on, it is worth backing them to see off the visitors with something to spare.
Paul Tierney takes charge of this weekend's clash with the referee dishing out three red cards in 25 matches this season. But he has not sent off any players in his seven Premier League matches in this campaign.
After winning three consecutive Premier League games against the Tigers, Everton are winless in their last three. Hull can be backed in the double chance market at 29/20.
For individual match previews of every single Premier League game visit our dedicated Premier League section here on Betting.Betfair.
Follow Simon's bets on Twitter @watfordtipster
Simon Mail's 2016/17 Season P/L
Staked: 39 pts
Returned: 42.33 pts
P/L: +3.33 pts